JetBoaters.net Bimini Fling July 9th to 14th 2018

[AbuAyd]

@Mainah, @Berrie we are in for a Saturday crossing. On our way from TX, should arrive Fort Lauderdale Friday late afternoon. First time crossing, no experience in open water, single engine Glastron 21’, w fixed VHF, chart plotter, inReach Explorer, hand held VHF.

@Berrie we are in. I will give it a few hours to collect names in this thread and then start a pm for those going on Saturday. We have fixed and handheld vhf with dsc. Using mobile devices with with Navionics. Carrying 14 gallons of extra fuel, Trim tabs and a budget that allows for pivoting. Some nearshore rough water experience. Good navigational skills. Also very mechanically and electrically inclined.

Boat US gold should it be needed.

 

[Bruce]

For those considering a Sunday crossing;

This was the 2014 forecast (a fun run)



This was the 2015 forecast (a beating)



This was the 2016 forecast (pleasant)



This was the 2017 forecast (a beating)



And this is Sunday’s forecast (will be rough, could be a beating)




My perspective is that if you want to go early or easy you should try for Saturday. If, like me, you cannot make Saturday consider watching the weather on the beach in Fort Lauderdale on Monday, ready to go if it clears, with a plan to cross on Tuesday if the forecast holds.

 

[Betik]

@AbuAyd i am leaving dallas in 2 hours and will keep an eye for you on I-10
469 500 0812 in case you run to any issues while towing

 

[Rana]

I see it keeps changing. I honestly dont know what to do. I can’t make it in until Saturday evening.
Brian doesn’t want to cross on Tuesday as then it’s not worth his/our time with all the travel.
Others in the group also do not want to do Tuesday.
I’m really stuck here.

The weather is not being very cooperative this July....

 

[Mainah]

The weather is not being very cooperative this July....

Certainly not. Important to rember just forecasts and always subject to change. I am a data guy and just going with the best available scenario based both on the data and on my availability. Not tge same for all and looking foward to some beers and cheers.

Don’t forget to thank all your spouses, girlfriends, boyfriends, kids etc for rooling with the fluid situation. Be extra patient with them and yourself.

 

[Mainah]

Packing the important stuff which doubles for plan C.

 

[Water Girl]

View attachment 78243 View attachment 78244 View attachment 78245 View attachment 78246 View attachment 78247 View attachment 78248
I can do Saturday but I will under no circumstances leave my group behind to fend for themselves. But I’m attaching a few pics below that will support a Sunday crossing. Hope it helps others make a decision. In the map that shows an aqua green color over the Bimini area, it’s possible percipitable water in the air. The pic below that, shows clouds. Clouds are the white spots. It is likely we will hit some rain showers on the way there. So Sunday’s fleet must expect to get rained on at some point. Currently we have decided to follow a straight line to Bimini in order to minimize fuel stops. The earlier we leave the better. If we can squeeze a 5-5:30 departure, we should be ok.

I’m shooting for Sunday. Only issue is it’s seems half the people that signed up for this trip don’t check this thread at all. So how do we coordinate them? I’m not leaving people behind either but we need them to respond so we can firm new groups.

 

[jaburt]

I’m shooting for Sunday. Only issue is it’s seems half the people that signed up for this trip don’t check this thread at all. So how do we coordinate them? I’m not leaving people behind either but we need them to respond so we can firm new groups.

I’m good with early Sunday I will do what’s needed to be ready. I’ve been in contact with Steve Rivera which is in our group the last I heard from him he was out all together.

 

[Amar Nanduri]

Seems as if someone is trying to nail the coffin shut. If they decrease the rental pool it’s going to take money out of everyone’s pocket involved ie: marina, ships store, unit cleaners etc... place will have lots of “character” in the near future if this continues.

I suspect a “break it down and rebuild everything from scratch under a new name and new management” kind of strategy. Another resort world in the making is my guess.

 

[Valerie]

Has no one seen this today?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-05-tropical-storm-beryl-atlantic.html

 

[Water Girl]

I’m good with early Sunday I will do what’s needed to be ready. I’ve been in contact with Steve Rivera which is in our group the last I heard from him he was out all together.

Yes he cancelled this morning

 

[Bruce]

Steve Rivera

Unfortunately the Rivera’s have cancelled along with their family that was traveling with them.

 

[Andy S]

After being stuck under my truck doing some repairs, still not done, I see things have gotten a little crazy here, so why not through my 2 cents to mix.

First off the 2015 trip over was total BS, those conditions where not that bad or the worst I have seen and ABSOLUTELY no one should have taken more the 3 hours to get there but when dealing with green scared boaters you getting extremely slow crossings. I can't speech for 2016 or 2017 because I wasn't there but when you have storms crop up the sea can get ugly fast. I can say that the 2013 trip over that @upperdeck @justason @sstegh and I took was one of the worst conditions I have seen, 3-5' waves and 15 mph wind in our face, but we made it in 3 hours, 20 mph for 60 miles. Once in Bimini things were a little rough but nothing to prevent us from having a good time. The biggest issue for me (which was actually very minor) was try to get my anchor to hold to the coral bottom with minimal rough waters. The ride back we had the same conditions but when the wind is to your back and the waves are going the same direction you can make good time.

To me the conditions I see for Sunday are similar to what we saw in 2013, wind and waves in your face but at a lesser magnitude. Of rough scenarios this is what I prefer because with the wind and waves aligned, you get more consistent waves (true maybe higher) but with consistent waves I can manage them much easier than when the wind and waves aren't aligned, the waves will be similar to being in a washing machine unpredictable and hard to manage.

As for Tuesday's Sailflow forecast of 8-9 sec periods, I don't believe and personally would not wait until Tuesday to cross. Sailflow is the only place predicting that period and I can't believe the seas aren't going to lay down that quick after a couple of days with higher winds and waves.

Like others have said each captain has to make the best choice for their crew and boat. For me and my crew I would have no problem leaving on Sunday if I couldn't make Saturday work. But I due know I would not wait until Tuesday to cross, I as the captain of my boat don't believe the Sailflow forecast, however I do hope it comes true for those waiting until Tuesday.

Finally, @robert843 and I only moved the June crossing to Sunday because the conditions were so abnormally nice, why not take advantage of them if we can and thankful everyone was able to. But, if we had to leave on Monday for our trip we would have taken 2 to 2.5 hours instead of 1 hour 45 minutes to cross on Sunday.

These are my opinions and no way would I try to convince folks to go in bad conditions. For me these forecasts are not bad enough to be overly concerned about. Just understand it will not be a calm ride over but something that is easily do able with a steady throttle at a decent speed.

 

[AbuAyd]

@AbuAyd i am leaving dallas in 2 hours and will keep an eye for you on I-10
469 500 0812 in case you run to any issues while towing

Thank you so much @Betik. We r still on 290 going towards 10. My number is (512) 915-5009. Will keep an eye as well.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

For those considering a Sunday crossing;

This was the 2014 forecast (a fun run)

View attachment 78256

This was the 2015 forecast (a beating)

View attachment 78252

This was the 2016 forecast (pleasant)

View attachment 78255

This was the 2017 forecast (a beating)

View attachment 78253

And this is Sunday’s forecast (will be rough, could be a beating)


View attachment 78254

My perspective is that if you want to go early or easy you should try for Saturday. If, like me, you cannot make Saturday consider watching the weather on the beach in Fort Lauderdale on Monday, ready to go if it clears, with a plan to cross on Tuesday if the forecast holds.

Are you pulling these from previous threads or can you look up historical forecast on sailflow? I'd love to see what the previous day or so forecast was for each crossing. I really do feel like that was a lessoned learned on this past trip for me. Thursday was glass all day and night. When we woke up and got ready to leave Friday, the winds had picked up in the marina and we made a comment like "well this is going to be a typical crossing". As we were loading up in the 11am hour and it has been blowing decently all morning, a center console came in and I asked him how the crossing was. He said it was glass. I thought, that's interesting because the wind had picked up and his opinion was probably just the perspective of 30+ CC. Well 30 minutes later we're several miles off shore and lake water it was. Now that wind continued Friday and by Saturday the others crossed in good conditions but definitely not as smooth as our Friday crossing. My take away was, it takes a minute for the seas to catch up. Because Saturday winds are pretty tame all day, at least forecasted, then I think if any leave early Sunday they should be good as the seas will not catch up by the time they get there. I see a 20mph pace on Sunday morning.

Here's what's funny about sailflow. While in FL prior to departure, @veedubtek sailflow had one forecast and mine was slightly different. Man I hope Tuesday's period forecast is true, but if I was a betting man I'd say if sailflow doesn't update before then you'll witness something very different out there. Well in your case something very familiar. It looks like Sunday will be pushing double digit wind speeds and only increases a bit on Monday before coming back down a little on Tuesday. If that period doesn't hold I don't see Tuesday being better then Sunday (based on current forecast) at least not enough to tell a significant difference if it is better. That could be a significant consideration for those that do not live close or couldn't extend there stay. It's a long haul and a lot of money to spend for what will essentially be 3 full days leaving Tuesday as the crossing always feels like a bit of a lost day for me at least. My prediction is both will be your typical washing machine. This is going to be an interesting crossing. Unfortunately it will not be what we saw in June, but I don't think it will be what was experienced in 2017 either.

 

[Bruce]

@Ramblin Wreck, those screen captures are either mine or from past threads. Unfortunately I can get historical wind data but not waves.

The rough water in 2015 & 2017 was likely caused by sudden changes in wind direction. Sunday might simply be 2 footers at 4 seconds or if a sudden change occurs it could be 2’+ chop.

The longer periods on Tuesday are consistent across SailFlow, Windy and Wind Finder forecasts and have been for some time.

As for high winds and small waves, if there are no existing waves then the wind has little to push against but once there are existing waves high winds get them moving.

I have been fortunate to have two glassy return crossings and experienced the high wind and smooth water combination.

 

[bronze_10]

@Ramblin Wreck, those screen captures are either mine or from past threads. Unfortunately I can get historical wind data but not waves.

The rough water in 2015 & 2017 was likely caused by sudden changes in wind direction. Sunday might simply be 2 footers at 4 seconds or if a sudden change occurs it could be 2’+ chop.

The longer periods on Tuesday are consistent across SailFlow, Windy and Wind Finder forecasts and have been for some time.

As for high winds and small waves, if there are no existing waves then the wind has little to push against but once there are existing waves high winds get them moving.

I have been fortunate to have two glassy return crossings and experienced the high wind and smooth water combination.

This is where I would normally chime in and say something smart ass like.. I don't know what all the drama is about.. My crossing was easy as hell.... ..... Then I remember my boat is in my drive way in several pieces.... .. . And when u add waiting for a push rod to go flying out of your engine cowling it adds stress to any crossing!

 

[Bruce]

Of the cancelled condos I understand that only @jaburt has not found other lodging or cancelled.

Is that correct?

5F - Marcus Thompson
5H - @JerseyYami
13D - @Omar8thgen
14B - @Lowstar
14E - @Rod5
14H - @zedxmike

 

[Speedling]

@swatski you had yo jinx me.
Found my bimini frame weak spot

 

[Ryuc14911]

13D confirmed. Their room is secured. Thank you Bruce.