After being stuck under my truck doing some repairs, still not done, I see things have gotten a little crazy here, so why not through my 2 cents to mix.
First off the 2015 trip over was total BS, those conditions where not that bad or the worst I have seen and ABSOLUTELY no one should have taken more the 3 hours to get there but when dealing with green scared boaters you getting extremely slow crossings. I can't speech for 2016 or 2017 because I wasn't there but when you have storms crop up the sea can get ugly fast. I can say that the 2013 trip over that
@upperdeck @justason @sstegh and I took was one of the worst conditions I have seen, 3-5' waves and 15 mph wind in our face, but we made it in 3 hours, 20 mph for 60 miles. Once in Bimini things were a little rough but nothing to prevent us from having a good time. The biggest issue for me (which was actually very minor) was try to get my anchor to hold to the coral bottom with minimal rough waters. The ride back we had the same conditions but when the wind is to your back and the waves are going the same direction you can make good time.
To me the conditions I see for Sunday are similar to what we saw in 2013, wind and waves in your face but at a lesser magnitude. Of rough scenarios this is what I prefer because with the wind and waves aligned, you get more consistent waves (true maybe higher) but with consistent waves I can manage them much easier than when the wind and waves aren't aligned, the waves will be similar to being in a washing machine unpredictable and hard to manage.
As for Tuesday's Sailflow forecast of 8-9 sec periods, I don't believe and personally would not wait until Tuesday to cross. Sailflow is the only place predicting that period and I can't believe the seas aren't going to lay down that quick after a couple of days with higher winds and waves.
Like others have said each captain has to make the best choice for their crew and boat. For me and my crew I would have no problem leaving on Sunday if I couldn't make Saturday work. But I due know I would not wait until Tuesday to cross, I as the captain of my boat don't believe the Sailflow forecast, however I do hope it comes true for those waiting until Tuesday.
Finally,
@robert843 and I only moved the June crossing to Sunday because the conditions were so abnormally nice, why not take advantage of them if we can and thankful everyone was able to. But, if we had to leave on Monday for our trip we would have taken 2 to 2.5 hours instead of 1 hour 45 minutes to cross on Sunday.
These are my opinions and no way would I try to convince folks to go in bad conditions. For me these forecasts are not bad enough to be overly concerned about. Just understand it will not be a calm ride over but something that is easily do able with a steady throttle at a decent speed.
I just binged reading this whole thread and feel caught up on jetboaters life episode 248.
