EV discussion - hate or love?

[Ribs77]

No, not commuting from PDX to SEA unless you're insane We have family and friends in the area, so we probably go 4-5x/year. Also have other family not in Portland but about 180 miles from Seattle. We go there 4-5x/year as well.

All in, it's about one ~200 mile (each way) trip every month, including longer-range camping trips, etc. Everything is far from everything else in the west.

My commute is 40 miles round trip, but I wouldn't be comfortable with only a 50 mile range. I can think of all kinds of situations where I'd run into a problem there. I could probably get by on 80 miles, assuming I could always charge at my place of employment.

 

[HawaiiBreeze]

Never say Never but probably not an EV Ever.

 

[BlkGS]

No, not commuting from PDX to SEA unless you're insane We have family and friends in the area, so we probably go 4-5x/year. Also have other family not in Portland but about 180 miles from Seattle. We go there 4-5x/year as well.

All in, it's about one ~200 mile (each way) trip every month, including longer-range camping trips, etc. Everything is far from everything else in the west.

My commute is 40 miles round trip, but I wouldn't be comfortable with only a 50 mile range. I can think of all kinds of situations where I'd run into a problem there. I could probably get by on 80 miles, assuming I could always charge at my place of employment.

That's the beauty of a PHEV or ER EV. It doesn't matter if you go slightly over your range needs here or there. It's not like a BEV where you're on the side.of the road getting towed. You just use a little fuel. You don't have to care about your maximum usage anymore, and focus on nominal usage.

Some of the people with 45e X5s are going like 4 months on a tank and several thousand miles. One guy literally said he deliberately doesn't charge he it for a few days after a few months because he's worried the gas will go bad, lol. Why he didn't just use stabil in it, I dunno

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

Here’s an interesting article on BEV and PHEV global sales that I stumbled across this morning:

Global EV Sales for 2023 - EV Volumes

Jim

 

[2kwik4u]

Some of the people with 45e X5s are going like 4 months on a tank and several thousand miles. One guy literally said he deliberately doesn't charge he it for a few days after a few months because he's worried the gas will go bad, lol. Why he didn't just use stabil in it, I dunno

I've met a couple Chevy Volt owners that did this as well. Same reason. They commuted just far enough to use most of the EV range, and never hit the gas engine except a couple times a year. Interestingly though GM had a system to cover that in place. The Volts would run the engine every so often, even under electric power to ensure lubrication and fuel staling wasn't an issue.

I still contend that data will set you free. I would wager most people have no idea how many miles they drive in a day on average. I would have told you I needed over 200mi of range to cover a day until I started tracking it. Once I had data in hand, I realized even with a 28mi one way commute, I only used more than 100mi in a day about once a month, and then it never broke 150mi in that 6mo period. Only twice in the year did I cover more than 200mi in a day, and those were for some flavor of special event, or activity that was out of town. Usage is far less than people think it is.

With that said, the boy scout in me won't let me drop below a 1/4 tank of fuel, so running an EV down to 5% would be anxiety inducing to say the least. That might be more mental workload than some people care to take on. I also completely understand the premise that most people can only afford ONE car, and renting one for a vacation would make that prohibitively expensive. I sit in a position where it's not a big deal to me (I have 3 cars and a boat for gods sake), but for many, that's not the case.

So, again we find ourselves in a "well it depends" decision, and making sweeping assumptions about what is "normal" is pretty difficult (even though I just did above). I think this is part of the human condition more so than an EV discussion

 

[BlkGS]

I think the rollout of EVs was really handled poorly. "They" got greedy and wanted an instant switch. Had they been smarter about it and introduced a lot of PHEVs first, people would be like "well, I commute in electric only model most of the time, an ER EV wouldn't be so bad". Then people could say "well, I only use the ER portion once a year, so maybe I can fly or rent a car for that trip" and go with a shorter ra ge BEV maybe.

But instead they were "comply or else" and it backfired.

 

[2kwik4u]

But instead they were "comply or else" and it backfired.

Wouldn't say it backfired, but it sure didn't get the support it could have.

Also, isn't this kind of how legislation works? Here's some new rules we voted on. Here's when they'll take effect. Here's the penalty for not following them.

 

[djetok]

I think the rollout of EVs was really handled poorly. "They" got greedy and wanted an instant switch. Had they been smarter about it and introduced a lot of PHEVs first, people would be like "well, I commute in electric only model most of the time, an ER EV wouldn't be so bad". Then people could say "well, I only use the ER portion once a year, so maybe I can fly or rent a car for that trip" and go with a shorter ra ge BEV maybe.

But instead they were "comply or else" and it backfired.

The infrastructure is not there for ev's . I have never owned one, but I was looking at them. I was looking at plug in hybrids. If you want an EV right now that's great, if you need one there will be issues nothing that you can't overcome though.

 

[BlkGS]

Wouldn't say it backfired, but it sure didn't get the support it could have.

Also, isn't this kind of how legislation works? Here's some new rules we voted on. Here's when they'll take effect. Here's the penalty for not following them.

Sure, but nobody voted on this. They just said "do it or else". It wasn't legislation, it was decree but unelected bureaucrats and oligarch Wall St tycoons. Ignoring the "stinks like corruption" of it all, it's not like the rules or bans that were out in place were ever voted on by citizens, or even our representatives

I think all the automakers rolling back investments, delaying new models, bleeding money in their EV units, startups C11ing, and legacy brands teetering on the verge of collapse kinda looks like it backfired. Realistically, nobody is selling a large quantity of EVs of your name isn't Tesla. GM was selling 2 versions of the Bolt and peaked at 60k units last year. That's roughly how many Blazers they sold. They sold 210k Equinox. The Bolt was the #3 selling RV behind model 3 and model y.

Tesla it didn't backfire for. They can sell cheap EVs still. But nobody else is selling many EVs. And everyone is losing boatloads trying to sell EVs they thought would sell easily. Ford and Jeep are both rushing to try to develop a $25k EV crossoverhatchback because that's the only hope they have of selling them. I don't know if that will work or not, but I suspect they're not gonna be giving you much for $25k, of they hit that target at all (doubtful). Ford only sell Maverick for 25k, that's it's base MSRP. Keep sells nothing for 25k, it's cheapest vehicle is the Compass at 27k base, even the tiny little renegade is 29k. I can't imagine that either of them actually sell a brand new EV for less than 30k unless it has some hilariously small battery or something. Unless of course, they just sell it at a loss.

 

[2kwik4u]

Sure, but nobody voted on this. They just said "do it or else". It wasn't legislation, it was decree but unelected bureaucrats and oligarch Wall St tycoons. Ignoring the "stinks like corruption" of it all, it's not like the rules or bans that were out in place were ever voted on by citizens, or even our representatives.

What rules? What bans? This feels really blown out of proportion. You just bought a V8 SUV this year (maybe last year), clearly they aren't THAT hard to get ahold of. Nobody is forcing EV adoption any harder than any of the EPA mileage mandates or any other form of legislation. If anything it might be a diversion of funds that you think could be spent better elsewhere. Dunno, just seems not that big of a deal to me. Maybe I'm missing something?

And we did vote on it, maybe not directly, but we put the people in charge that made the mandates. I won't get into the politics (or the corruption within), that's for a different thread/day. You're not wrong on many levels here, and I agree it's a problem.

I think all the automakers rolling back investments, delaying new models, bleeding money in their EV units, startups C11ing, and legacy brands teetering on the verge of collapse kinda looks like it backfired. Realistically, nobody is selling a large quantity of EVs of your name isn't Tesla. GM was selling 2 versions of the Bolt and peaked at 60k units last year. That's roughly how many Blazers they sold. They sold 210k Equinox. The Bolt was the #3 selling RV behind model 3 and model y.

These are open market corrections, not a backfired EV mandate. This feels like confusion between market forces and government directives. Lots of people thought it was the future, then the public didn't buy in at the level expected, so we get corrections.

Tesla it didn't backfire for. They can sell cheap EVs still. But nobody else is selling many EVs.

Tesla is a really interesting case study in business. First mover advantage combined with Apple level consumer loyalty (dare I say fandom) is an exceptionally strong business position. Many people overlook technical shortcomings because of a belief in the brand. Reference all the "iPhone just got a feature Android has had for a decade" memes each year as a parallel to the defense of poor panel gaps and borderline acceptable interior quality amongst Tesla fans.

And everyone is losing boatloads trying to sell EVs they thought would sell easily. Ford and Jeep are both rushing to try to develop a $25k EV crossoverhatchback because that's the only hope they have of selling them. I don't know if that will work or not, but I suspect they're not gonna be giving you much for $25k, of they hit that target at all (doubtful). Ford only sell Maverick for 25k, that's it's base MSRP. Keep sells nothing for 25k, it's cheapest vehicle is the Compass at 27k base, even the tiny little renegade is 29k. I can't imagine that either of them actually sell a brand new EV for less than 30k unless it has some hilariously small battery or something. Unless of course, they just sell it at a loss.

$25k is a hard goal to reach. I doubt many will get there in the coming decade. We might look back in 5-10yrs and say, look at this cheap EV. They hit the goal in 2020 dollars, but the raw dollar amount is likely never going to get to $25k, for many of the reasons you already discuss. I bought a manual transmission, mid trim Ford Focus in '12. Brand new, with A-Plan pricing, and it was $19.5k. That was 12years ago and it was a low feature, basic transportation kind of vehicle. I can't imagine how they'll get to $25k with a BEV and current tech. Going to have to figure out how to farm unicorns, and bottle their farts for fuel or something drastic like that to make it happen I think.

 

[Prodock]

I switched to a Tesla Model Y for my commute vehicle in 2022. 50 miles each way, so 100 miles a day cost me about $1.00 in electricity, yes we have good residential rates. I work remotely now and my wife retired so a couple months ago we traded in the Model Y on a new Model X and sold our 2017 Ram that we used to tow our 210 FSH. We only tow a couple miles so I can’t speak for efficiency, but it pulls the boat out of the launch better than the ram with a hemi did. We’ve also made trips from coastal NC to Fort Myers FL, Augusta GA and upper Michigan. The Tesla Model X is an awesome road trip car with LOTS of room and super car speed.

 

[BlkGS]

I never said anything about mandates or bans (though to be fair, those exist in some crazy places like CA, but they're far enough out that nobody really cares about them, and will likely quietly disappear in the night at some point, unless the balance of power swings there and it loudly is removed, but that's less likely than the 25k EV). The issue is more surrounding the quiet rules, the CAFE requirements that force prices up and.force ICEs out.

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data - Vehicle Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) Requirements by Year

Here's a great chart that shows what CAFE is forcing automakers to meet, and if they don't they face huge fines (that consumers pay). A big.part.kf the reason that car vehicles.prices spiked is the penalities from Obama era CAFE targets were halted under Trump, Biden brought them back and we see how expensive new trucks have gotten.

And yes, I bought a V8 SUV last year. They're not making a next gen version because of CAFE rules. A LOT of the interesting stuff on the market is being phased out in or after MY 25, because of CAFE requirements.

A few tidbits from that chart for those too lazy to look. MY 2026 trucks must do an average of 42.4 mpg in the CAFE cycle (roughly a mixed cycle). Passenger cars have to hit 64.8 mpg.average. by 2029 light duty trucks have to hit an average of 60 mpg, passenger cars have to do 79.4 mpg average. It only gets more crazy from there, 2032 light trucks have to hit 98.7 mpg average, passenger cars have to hit 122 mpg.

With numbers like that, you've effectively mandated the automakers to not make ICE vehicles, or force consumers to pay a HUGE civil penalty for the automaker.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

While a $25k EV might be a pipe dream, aside from a Chinese import, I think we will see a variety of $35k EV’s coming in 2025/6. This, I believe, will be a game changer for the U.S. market. Folks may bitch and whine about EV’s, but they will conttinue to see increased sales in the global marketplace.

Jim

 

[BlkGS]

Tesla has one huge advantage nobody talks about. They had all the other automakers lay for their growth. They sold the crap out of CAFE credits which effectively paid for their development and capacity costs. That's why they can afford to throw money at model y and model 3 to make them so cheap (that and they're incredibly cheap inside). That advantage of being the first ones on the scene tomscoop up all that CAFE credit money is huge, and why none of these other EV start ups are able to do anything like what Tesla did.

Some.will say it was branding, or Elon musk, or whatever, but it wasn't. It was the government creating a second revenue stream for them where they were essentially the only vendor for those CAFE credits.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

CAFE numbers aren’t carved in stone, and can be reduced if automakers can’t reach them in good faith. An example is last week’s small reduction in CAFE in 2032, https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2024/06/07/biden-compromises-on-new-cafe-standards/74016020007/

Coming out of Covid, most cars and trucks were expensive as automakers focused on their higher end vehicles. I actually see some reasonably priced vehicles and my local Jeep/Ram dealer has more vehicles on the lot that I have ever seen before.

Jim

 

[BlkGS]

While a $25k EV might be a pipe dream, aside from a Chinese import, I think we will see a variety of $35k EV’s coming in 2025/6. This, I believe, will be a game changer for the U.S. market. Folks may bitch and whine about EV’s, but they will conttinue to see increased sales in the global marketplace.

Jim

I dunno. Kia is about as low in the market as we have now, you can get a Soul EV (not a purpose built EV) starting at 33k. The EV6 starts at 43k. Hyundai's start at similar price points. But those are for base base base cars, cars that people willing to spend $35k at 7% interest are likely not willing to downgrade into.

I think we are going to see more 50-80k EVs coming out, which I don't know will make the huge splash people are expecting. You look at something like the Jeep Wagoneer S, you've got effectively a Grand Cherokee EV, the launch model is like 70k. Typically launch editions are fully optioned, so it's priced similar to a regular GC.

What is going to be interesting to me going forward is will people pick ICE or EV with a price equivalence.

 

[BlkGS]

CAFE numbers aren’t carved in stone, and can be reduced if automakers can’t reach them in good faith. An example is last week’s small reduction in CAFE in 2032, https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2024/06/07/biden-compromises-on-new-cafe-standards/74016020007/

Coming out of Covid, most cars and trucks were expensive as automakers focused on their higher end vehicles. I actually see some reasonably priced vehicles and my local Jeep/Ram dealer has more vehicles on the lot that I have ever seen before.

Jim

You're right, if Trump.wins he could eliminate CAFE standards day 1, and hopefully he would. But automakers don't base business plans off hopes and dreams (though given this years election looming, I doubt any of them are going to act on the new standards until after November).

But even at your link it points out how incredibly unachievable those standards are. The most fuel efficient car on the road today with no electrification is a 78hp, 2100lb Mitsubishi Mirage that does a combined 39mpg.

The real issue is that there is big money tied up in these standards, and the people who make them are shadowy regulators that nobody knows their names or votes for. It would be one thing if Congress had to approve the standards by a vote, but that's not the case. Nameless regulation dictators just say "thou shalt" with no oversight, no checks and balance, nothing to prevent them from doing literally whatever they want and telling everyone else that they don't care.

I suspect the new car market is going to see steep declines over the new few years, with used car values reaching even more insane levels. The automakers clearly can't meet the CAFE targets, and they're gonna pass the cost on to new car buyers, and those new cars are already insanely expensive with little incentives. It's only gonna get worse..

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

I dunno. Kia is about as low in the market as we have now, you can get a Soul EV (not a purpose built EV) starting at 33k. The EV6 starts at 43k. Hyundai's start at similar price points. But those are for base base base cars, cars that people willing to spend $35k at 7% interest are likely not willing to downgrade into.

I think we are going to see more 50-80k EVs coming out, which I don't know will make the huge splash people are expecting. You look at something like the Jeep Wagoneer S, you've got effectively a Grand Cherokee EV, the launch model is like 70k. Typically launch editions are fully optioned, so it's priced similar to a regular GC.

What is going to be interesting to me going forward is will people pick ICE or EV with a price equivalence.

While I agree that 50-80k EV’s will certainly increase in number, not every potential new buyer has the budget for a car of this price. The average price of a new car this past March was $47k. Thus, for everyone single buyer of a luxury car, there are probably two buyers of less expensive cars.

Addressing CAFE numbers, I don’t think eliminating them would spell the end of fuel efficient cars and EV’s, even here in the US. If you eliminate full size trucks and SUV’s from the equation, the vast majority of car sales in this country is by foreign automakers. As much as we may try to ignore it, making and selling cars is a GLOBAL business. In fact, we see some foreign manufacturers building cars in the US, and exporting them out of the US. In an ideal world, a manufacturer would see the same (or nearly the same) car in as many markets as possible. I think we will see a number of newer, more affordable EV’s coming to market in the next couple of years. In turn, I think this will increase the demand for lower priced EV’s.

Jim

 

[BlkGS]

While I agree that 50-80k EV’s will certainly increase in number, not every potential new buyer has the budget for a car of this price. The average price of a new car this past March was $47k. Thus, for everyone single buyer of a luxury car, there are probably two buyers of less expensive cars.

Addressing CAFE numbers, I don’t think eliminating them would spell the end of fuel efficient cars and EV’s, even here in the US. If you eliminate full size trucks and SUV’s from the equation, the vast majority of car sales in this country is by foreign automakers. As much as we may try to ignore it, making and selling cars is a GLOBAL business. In fact, we see some foreign manufacturers building cars in the US, and exporting them out of the US. In an ideal world, a manufacturer would see the same (or nearly the same) car in as many markets as possible. I think we will see a number of newer, more affordable EV’s coming to market in the next couple of years. In turn, I think this will increase the demand for lower priced EV’s.

Jim

That's the thing, the CAFE rules don't add value. People WANT more fuel efficient vehicles. The market itself pushes for that, we don't need government bureaucrats fiddling with it. If Honda could build a Tahoe competitor that got 50 mpg and did everything a Tahoe does, they'd sell them like crazy and make boatloads of money.

The only thing that CAFE does well is punish those who don't want the most fuel efficient vehicle. CAFE could be wiped away and people would still buy hybrids, EV, whatever fits them except it'd be done in good faith, not because of bureaucrats manipulating the purchase cost of vehicles via CAFE fines.

What I take issue with is manipulating the market via CAFE fines and gas taxes raised arbitrarily high.

 

[BlkGS]

To be totally honest, I think the majority of average Americans have been priced out of new cars. I'm sorry of surprised the average isn't higher, as middle.class buyers simply can't afford a brand new car, and typically buy lightly used.

Even as someone living very comfortably above the middle class of incomes, I don't see myself buying another brand new car. That's largely driven by just not liking what's being put out on the market. I feel like the newer styling inside and outside of vehicles is just going downhill quickly. The new versions of cars don't look more modern to me, they just look uglier and cheaper.