The Boat Market Bubble is bursting...

[biffdotorg]

From what I am seeing for used boats, it's obvious that many were holding out till after the holiday this past weekend. The market is starting to fill, no flood yet, with quality used boats.

This is not true everywhere, but if you were thinking of taking advantage of this insane covid market, better do it quick. Businesses and offices are opening back up, and we have passed that magical mid-point of summer known as July 4th. I have seen plenty of boats hitting FB marketplace and C-list this week. Prices are still insane, but it's obvious that it has to burst soon. Especially since new boats are shipping.


I got reprimanded in FB messenger by a seller last night. And if he is here, I should actually apologize. As I posted a "laughing emoji" on his 2020 AR190 ad. No comments, just that emoji, as it's not my place to point out the obvious MSRP new. As I found it truly funny, that he had it listed for $4,000 more than the boats MSRP in the fall of 2019. As I have said before, you can ask anything you want, and if the market bears you a buyer, good on you. But if anyone thinks that these boats are actually selling for that price, they are fooling themselves.

Well the joke wasn't totally on me, but upon looking up NADA to find the MSRP of that AR, the actual average closing price was just below MSRP. That actually sounds right, as it was a 2020. So little drop sounds good. And he had the premium black cover. But $4000 over, that was funny. Good starting point for negotiation I guess.

This bubble is going to burst, as I see a couple more boats listed here. Fine boats too, but a bit inflated.

Good luck to the sellers, and good luck to those still looking to buy! It's a fun show to watch.

 

[adrianp89]

You are a fool if you think he couldn't get 4k above MSRP. There are a lot of people in this country who have plenty of money and if they want something they will pay a premier to get it.

 

[djetok]

You are a fool if you think he couldn't get 4k above MSRP. There are a lot of people in this country who have plenty of money and if they want something they will pay a premier to get it.

I think @biffdotorg agrees with you man. Yes people can still get a premium for their boat, but like bif said summer is half over. Production will catch up and the bubble will burst.

 

[biffdotorg]

I'm not talking $4k over used value. I'm talking $4K over MSRP when the boat was new from the factory two years ago. Average selling price for a 2020 is $2K below MSRP right now. So he is starting a bit high.

Quick math, he's starting at $6,000 above average selling price by dealers.

 

[HangOutdoors]

I am see a great deal of boats going up, some are even 2021's with less than 10 hours. FB, Local on the side of the road, For Sale signs on boats around Marina's, Craigslist, etc. Saw one Yammie on the way to the lake on Sunday with big for sale sign on the back.

@biffdotorg I don't see anything wrong with bringing a dose of realism to this market. I am asked all the time from members here and others if it is a good price on a boat they are looking at. Sure there are people who have money falling out of their ass and will pay whatever they want. But I feel bad when families or individuals are getting ready to be taken advantage of. Can't help myself, pretty sure I have some that aren't a big fan of me either. I am not going to intentionally go out of my way to knock on someone's boat for sale, but if I am asked for my opinion I give it wholeheartedly.

Its' nice when someone will look out for someone else when they don't have to.... I wish at times in my life someone would of given me some advice or looked out for me and my family before I got burned.

 

[adrianp89]

I think @biffdotorg agrees with you man. Yes people can still get a premium for their boat, but like bif said summer is half over. Production will catch up and the bubble will burst.

It will but I don't think we are even close yet.

People are paying 50K+ above market value for homes, what's a few grand for a boat? My friend just sold his house for above market value.... the guy that bought the house not only paid above asking but then gave him 40k cash to ensure he sold it to him.

 

[mwalker4]

Bubbles are like Wyle E. Coyote going over a cliff. First the underlying condition change, but it takes a while for everyone to recognize it, then it drops like crazy. But you have to wait a while for the bottom. RVs, boats, and pets all cost more than people think. Carrying cost over the winter will get most people. Many will get one more summer next year. August next year in the Midwest will be a buyers market.

 

[biffdotorg]

I would agree with that too.

I think the average boat buyer is different pre July 4th, compared to post July 4th. They all want that perfect holiday on the water and will pay a premium for it. When it comes to the second half of summer, many are already shopping for winter storage, and the kids are planning on how much of August they will be at the lake, and when they will check into their dorm/apartment. That's a huge factor on this seasonal market

 

[biffdotorg]

It will but I don't think we are even close yet.

People are paying 50K+ above market value for homes, what's a few grand for a boat? My friend just sold his house for above market value.... the guy that bought the house not only paid above asking but then gave him 40k cash to ensure he sold it to him.

I'm agreeing with you, but soon we have to stop comparing boats to homes.

For all of our lives, boats have depreciated and homes have appreciated. Sooner or later, folks have to realize that boats do not appreciate in value. And when that time comes, I am going to be a boat flipping MF for sure. My wife is going to lose her mind on the money I may spend. (ok, she won't let me, but I can imagine doing it)

 

[anmut]

From what I am seeing for used boats, it's obvious that many were holding out till after the holiday this past weekend. The market is starting to fill, no flood yet, with quality used boats.

This is not true everywhere, but if you were thinking of taking advantage of this insane covid market, better do it quick. Businesses and offices are opening back up, and we have passed that magical mid-point of summer known as July 4th. I have seen plenty of boats hitting FB marketplace and C-list this week. Prices are still insane, but it's obvious that it has to burst soon. Especially since new boats are shipping.


I got reprimanded in FB messenger by a seller last night. And if he is here, I should actually apologize. As I posted a "laughing emoji" on his 2020 AR190 ad. No comments, just that emoji, as it's not my place to point out the obvious MSRP new. As I found it truly funny, that he had it listed for $4,000 more than the boats MSRP in the fall of 2019. As I have said before, you can ask anything you want, and if the market bears you a buyer, good on you. But if anyone thinks that these boats are actually selling for that price, they are fooling themselves.

Well the joke wasn't totally on me, but upon looking up NADA to find the MSRP of that AR, the actual average closing price was just below MSRP. That actually sounds right, as it was a 2020. So little drop sounds good. And he had the premium black cover. But $4000 over, that was funny. Good starting point for negotiation I guess.

This bubble is going to burst, as I see a couple more boats listed here. Fine boats too, but a bit inflated.

Good luck to the sellers, and good luck to those still looking to buy! It's a fun show to watch.

I'm seeing a lot of boats for sale now, but the prices are still jacked way too high. I think we'll see a dead cat bounce in sales before the bottom drops out, probably around this time in 2022.

I think people will stick with their boats through this summer, and this fall will see a big sell off. Unfortunately, with many underwater on their loans you'll have to wait for the bank sales in early Spring of next year to find any deals.

The only positive thing I can see for some of us is that I expect new boat orders to drop off very quickly, giving back some negotiating power to the customer.

 

[HangOutdoors]

@anmut Tend to agree that this fall/winter there will be the start to a sell off and a lot may be gently used. If this happens and the rumors are true that Yamaha is going to pop 10% or so in price increases, it will either pull up the value of the used and/or people may go used over new, unless there are features in the new models that are worthy which will hopefully put some stabilizing pressure on new prices. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

I guess it will also depend on how the supply chain shakes out as well as the Covid Variants and what the does. Was reading an article today about possible Deflation on the horizon.

 

[adrianp89]

I'm agreeing with you, but soon we have to stop comparing boats to homes.

For all of our lives, boats have depreciated and homes have appreciated. Sooner or later, folks have to realize that boats do not appreciate in value. And when that time comes, I am going to be a boat flipping MF for sure. My wife is going to lose her mind on the money I may spend. (ok, she won't let me, but I can imagine doing it)

I know a guy that makes a killing flipping boats (has for years). Of course that's not quite the same lol.

 

[HangOutdoors]

I'm agreeing with you, but soon we have to stop comparing boats to homes.

For all of our lives, boats have depreciated and homes have appreciated. Sooner or later, folks have to realize that boats do not appreciate in value. And when that time comes, I am going to be a boat flipping MF for sure. My wife is going to lose her mind on the money I may spend. (ok, she won't let me, but I can imagine doing it)

Will be honest, boats start to flood the market and drive prices down, and the right priced 25' FSH pops up, there will be some rough discussions with the Admiral and what I want to do.

EDIT: May just have to buy it and hide in storage for the winter so I can work the long game

 

[mraz72]

I would say the same is true of the housing and land market. a quick view on Zillow shows much more land available near me than was a year ago. Supply goes up, price comes down.

 

[biffdotorg]

Location will have a big play on the boat market, as it will obviously hit us first up here in MN. Realistically, the casual boaters shut it all down around labor day. Docks/lifts start coming out, and folks shut down seasonal cabins. And first time boat buyers, all of a sudden, have to find winter storage for their new toy.

It will be much different in the southern states, where they are planning their Halloween and thanksgiving boating excursions.

 

[HangOutdoors]

@biffdotorg Michigan is the same. Already seen an add for Winter Storage. $349 per month outdoors. smh.... Stuff like that will help people make up their mind about selling.

You don't want to be anywhere near the launches or Marina's around here the week after Labor day, you will get ran over with the traffic of boats getting pulled out.

 

[tkeru408]

Boat prices are always highest in spring/early summer and we saw that to the extreme this year. I'm also seeing supply shooting way up, though most folks are still out of their mind with what they're asking. They see some other post for an absurd price so they think they should ask an absurd price. It makes me laugh, but I don't waste my time pointing out to them how ridiculous their number or their logic is. They'll either get lucky when some poor sap comes along or they won't and will eventually have to come down on their price. On the occasion that I do see a boat listed for a reasonable price, I have commented positively to that effect (e.g. there's one listed on our JB classifieds now that I think is very reasonable).

I think supply will still be sufficiently constrained through this year and into next year that after a typical winter dip in used boat prices, we'll see pretty high numbers again next spring. After that, though, supply will probably start to catch up and the used boat market settles down for good late 2022 into 2023. Just my two cents.

 

[RobbieO]

It will but I don't think we are even close yet.

People are paying 50K+ above market value for homes, what's a few grand for a boat? My friend just sold his house for above market value.... the guy that bought the house not only paid above asking but then gave him 40k cash to ensure he sold it to him.

50K over listing price in CA gets you squat. I know a family that lost out on 4 homes before offering 90K over. They got their home. Crazy here.

 

[adrianp89]

50K over listing price in CA gets you squat. I know a family that lost out on 4 homes before offering 90K over. They got their home. Crazy here.

Funny, you could offer me 90k cash and I still wouldn't move to CA.

 

[djetok]

Wells Fargo is shutting down all personal line of credit accounts (cnbc.com)

KEY POINTS

• The bank is shutting down all existing personal lines of credit in coming weeks and no longer offers the product, according to customer letters reviewed by CNBC.
• The product, which typically gave users $3,000 to $100,000 in revolving credit lines, was pitched as a way to consolidate higher-interest credit card debt, pay for home renovations or avoid overdraft fees on linked checking accounts.
• With its latest move, Wells Fargo warned customers that the account closures “may have an impact on your credit score,” according to a frequently asked questions segment of the letter.

the credit crunch coming. The bubble may burst sooner rather than later.