2023 Boat Bubble has finally burst!

[FSH 210 Sport]

Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA) - In a negotiation, you must know your BATNA, it will either strengthen or weaken your position in negotiations.

Examples:

1. For the boat, I was willing to walk away with little to no disappointment; therefore, I had a strong BATNA. Interest rates are high and dealers have boats in stock so dealers BATNA is lower.

2. Say my lease was up, in todays market, cars are hard to get, I find a dealer that has the car I want with all the options I want, if I don't successfully negotiate a deal, I may end up having to walk to work with little hope that I will find the car I want in stock anytime soon. In this example, my BATNA is low and the dealers BATNA is high because they will have no problem selling the car.

Huh, cool acronym! We used this concept when I was on the IBEW negotiating team(s) negotiating contracts. I think we all use this same concept regularly. I’ll have to incorporate this one into my lexicon.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

Well I am "C" Level and in a typical meeting or day, I pull out the entire armament of buzzwords Sometimes I am not sure I even know what I said.

We had tons of acronyms in the power industry.. I used them all the time.

 

[I_squared_r]

Well I am "C" Level and in a typical meeting or day, I pull out the entire armament of buzzwords Sometimes I am not sure I even know what I said.

We have that in my industry. I call it office talk or engineer talk. It's like "we shall..", "circle back", etc. I grew up blue collar in mechanic shops and somehow landed myself in an office job with people that speak oddly. I can't do it. My first engineering interview I had a resume with 7 years of mechanic experience and the owner asked me "Are you sure you can work in an office environment?" I guess the idea is that we speak without filter, talk about conservative politics, and we refuse to use pronouns (only an example). I feel less like an outsider when I used to do meetings with the contractors. Big difference of what you can say. Basically everything goes.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

We have that in my industry. I call it office talk or engineer talk. It's like "we shall..", "circle back", etc. I grew up blue collar in mechanic shops and somehow landed myself in an office job with people that speak oddly. I can't do it. My first engineering interview I had a resume with 7 years of mechanic experience and the owner asked me "Are you sure you can work in an office environment?" I guess the idea is that we speak without filter, talk about conservative politics, and we refuse to use pronouns (only an example). I feel less like an outsider when I used to do meetings with the contractors. Big difference of what you can say. Basically everything goes.

My experience was different, after 22 years of blue collar work I ended up in a mid level management job, most found my direct approach like a breath of fresh air. The only ones who had issues with it were the ones that talked a lot but got little work done. My personal favorite is when I’d ask a question of one of these “talkers” and they’d say everything but what the answer was, I’d wait patiently until they finished and simply say, “that’s not what I asked you“.

 

[drober30]

My experience was different, after 22 years of blue collar work I ended up in a mid level management job, most found my direct approach like a breath of fresh air. The only ones who had issues with it were the ones that talked a lot but got little work done. My personal favorite is when I’d ask a question of one of these “talkers” and they’d say everything but what the answer was, I’d wait patiently until they finished and simply say, “that’s not what I asked you“.

Too funny.... I hate having to send an email that contains more than one question...lol

 

[Bluewater272]

Dbag corporate buzzword/acronym... guys who say this probably walk around mumbling paradigm, outside the box, circle back and deep dive... ?

What an asinine thing to say. Maybe a facebook group is more your speed.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA) - In a negotiation, you must know your BATNA, it will either strengthen or weaken your position in negotiations.

Examples:

1. For the boat, I was willing to walk away with little to no disappointment; therefore, I had a strong BATNA. Interest rates are high and dealers have boats in stock so dealers BATNA is lower.

2. Say my lease was up, in todays market, cars are hard to get, I find a dealer that has the car I want with all the options I want, if I don't successfully negotiate a deal, I may end up having to walk to work with little hope that I will find the car I want in stock anytime soon. In this example, my BATNA is low and the dealers BATNA is high because they will have no problem selling the car.

Maybe I’m old school, hell I’m old enough, but all I need to go into a negotiation is an OTD (out the door) price.

Jim

 

[biffdotorg]

Dbag corporate buzzword/acronym... guys who say this probably walk around mumbling paradigm, outside the box, circle back and deep dive... ?

I can't say that I have used that word, but the concept was in my head with every truck I ever leased. COVID killed that plan. But after leasing 6 vehicles, that process goes through a lessee's head every 3-4 years, or whatever the term is.

You have to know your options and limits to maintain deal power. For example. If my buyout is low, I don't have to turn in my leased truck. I can buy it out on paper and apply the equity to the next lease and walk away with a nicer truck, lower payment and no money out of my pocket etc.

If all you have ever done is bought a car or truck, took it back in a few years and took whatever they gave you and bought the next vehicle at full sticker, you are exactly the person that the dealerships make a living on. Those that are a bit more frugle with their money, hold the cards and maintain the power in the deal.

The whole point of this conversation is that dealers with inventory, and used boats flooding the market shift the power back to the buyer, and will drop prices everywhere.

 

[Bottom Bracket]

The biggest point you just made is, they don't have to discount to effect the used market. Just having inventory will do that. As the amount of folks asking full MSRP on a used boat will end immediately. So all those low hour COVID cherries sitting out there will then impact the new market. That will force dealers hands as both effect each other.

This trickles all the way down.

"Economic Bubble" and "Trickle Down Economics" Are political topics.

I would argue that the boat industry is not in a "Bubble". As a matter of fact the boat industry has set the model for automotive sales.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

"Economic Bubble" and "Trickle Down Economics" Are political topics.

I would argue that the boat industry is not in a "Bubble". As a matter of fact the boat industry has set the model for automotive sales.

Respectfully, I disagree. When biffdotorg mentions “trickles all the way down”, I don’t think he is talking about Trickle Down Economics, so it is NOT a political topic.

Could you please elaborate as to what you mean that the boat industry has set the model for automotive sales?

Jim

 

[BigN8]

"Economic Bubble" and "Trickle Down Economics" Are political topics.

I would argue that the boat industry is not in a "Bubble". As a matter of fact the boat industry has set the model for automotive sales.

I think most folks confuse "bubble" and "bell curve". A bubble would imply a total collapse, which I would agree is not going to happen. However we have in my opinion reached the top of the bell curve and are on the back side heading down. I'm still shopping for my Searay Sundancer 320 or larger. I was going to pull the trigger this year, but now I think I will exercise a little more patience and wait for the season to end, the bell curve to get steeper, and buy this Fall or Winter, or Q1 of 2024.

 

[biffdotorg]

Anything anyone thought they knew about powersport economics went out the window mid 2020. Very few people bought a boat as an investment prior to 2020. Most consumers never made money on a boat investment prior to 2020. (other than the fix er uppers/flippers)

The memes about the first and last day boaters are happy are endless. But yet first time buyers, the last couple years, were rewarded for their impulse purchases by not losing a dime once they figured out how little they used their boat and sold it for more.

That all ends with dealers having inventory. It's the first sign that there will be much pain this summer as those 2x a year boaters try to sell "their investment"

It's like the late 90's when Harley Davidson would pre-sell all units before they hit the showroom. And folks would drive thousands of miles to visit our local Fargo Harley dealership, as they were the only dealer in the US with allotment left to sell. And then the 2003, 100th anniversary bike was announced years in advance for pre-sale and folks spent thousands above MSRP to get one. And then the market for Harley's became flooded as HD over produced the anniversary bikes and the model years before and after 2003.

The demand pushed production, and production filled showrooms, and then for lack of a better term, the market bubble for new Harley's burst and those 2003 Anniversary bikes were everywhere and worth nothing more than any other bike on the showroom. This caused the used market to tank as well.

Some forget that story as others try to create artificial demand for something that can be produced to meet demand. I don't need a political discussion to cloud this forum. We are just talking about the boat market. If I wanted to go political, we could talk about the conspiracy theorists that say the truck MFG's are filling empty parking lots around the US with inventory. (ha, went political on ya. please delete if I threw gas on the fire)

 

[Papa Erp]

Well I am "C" Level and in a typical meeting or day, I pull out the entire armament of buzzwords Sometimes I am not sure I even know what I said.

I'm right there with you. LoL.

 

[Scottintexas]

looking at this from 30k feet I think I'm done with this thread,

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

looking at this from 30k feet I think I'm done with this thread,

Why? I don’t think we jumped the shark yet!



Jim

 

[@JC!]

What an asinine thing to say. Maybe a facebook group is more your speed.

And yet it generated a pretty fun conversation not including your "contribution". ?

 

[biffdotorg]

I stopped counting at 36 used Yamaha Jetboats listed on FB marketplace within 250 miles of me in West Central MN today. Most of them used, and a majority of them private sale. Wow, what a change a little warm weather makes.

Of course I just moved 4" of snow off my driveway with more coming as we speak. Mother Nature, you suck!

 

[HangOutdoors]

Around me every day I am getting new notifications of used Yamaha's hitting the market on FB and other sites. Also there are a lot of other brand boats being listed everyday as well.

 

[Ericd]

I asked my AI app for a story using corporate buzz words. Sounds like a lot of meetings I attended.

 

[drober30]

I asked my AI app for a story using corporate buzz words. Sounds like a lot of meetings I attended.
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That's an excellent "Memo" except for it used the word leverage twice which detracts from the otherwise well worded message.