The Boat Market Bubble is bursting...

[adrianp89]

Good good... let the prices the drop.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

If things take a drastic turn in six months (and trust me they can), the best place to buy a boat won’t be from a person or a dealer. It will be from a bank that took their boat back from someone who walked away from a bad purchase agreement.

My Dad did this in 1986 when there was a bust in the oil industry in Houston. He ended up getting a 3 year old 28 foot sailboat for 1/2 the original asking price. He bought it from a bank who had it brokered.

One big thing for a repo, is that you have to look out for deferred maintenance. It wasn't a big deal with the sailboat as the diesel engine had low hours, would be more of a concern with a high hour powerboat, of course.

Jim

 

[adrianp89]

My Dad did this in 1986 when there was a bust in the oil industry in Houston. He ended up getting a 3 year old 28 foot sailboat for 1/2 the original asking price. He bought it from a bank who had it brokered.

One big thing for a repo, is that you have to look out for deferred maintenance. It wasn't a big deal with the sailboat as the diesel engine had low hours, would be more of a concern with a high hour powerboat, of course.

Jim

I don't think I would be too worried on a Yamaha.

 

[DaytonFlyer1068]

@HangOutdoors Wise statement. Very true. Human nature is a funny thing. We convince ourselves that we “need” something. I think a lot of people have been doing that with boats. Reality is that when actual “needs” like food, transportation and lodging become more expensive those perceived needs get pushed aside very quickly. Im very concerned for the people who are paying these outrageous prices for used boats or the crazy “prep” charges from dealers. The dealers are telling people not to worry because you can’t buy the boats right now and their boats won’t go down in value. People take that info at face value and forget that these are the same people that are charging you 4K to add gas and a couple batteries to a boat.

 

[Evil Sports]

Great time to be on the sidelines with resources ready

 

[biffdotorg]

The best part are all the ticked off people out there that will want to sell their mid 2000's Yamaha, that they overpaid by 10-15K, to only find that the market will not give them anywhere near that, and they are upside down on their loan. The biggest indication of that, was when lenders starting shutting off this sort of lending. We saw that a month or so ago. They knew this bubble would burst, or at least lessen with the season change

 

[HangOutdoors]

When I was at the boat show, there was a credit union offering 1.99 % on new purchase boats, 15% down. 10yr note. 2.99% 15% down on 15 year note. I was chatting with them and they mentioned that their Risk Analysts don't want to do low down/no down payment loans on Boats anymore as well as other recreational items. They are concerned about too many loans in their portfolio being upside down as things continue to erode. And if it comes to crunch time, people will let their boats and toys get repo'ed first rather than cars.

 

[HangOutdoors]

Great time to be on the sidelines with resources ready

C'Mon gently used 25' FSH..........

 

[biffdotorg]

When I was at the boat show, there was a credit union offering 1.99 % on new purchase boats, 15% down. 10yr note. 2.99% 15% down on 15 year note. I was chatting with them and they mentioned that their Risk Analysts don't want to do low down/no down payment loans on Boats anymore as well as other recreational items. They are concerned about too many loans in their portfolio being upside down as things continue to erode. And if it comes to crunch time, people will let their boats and toys get repo'ed first rather than cars.

And you know they will still keep financing new boats. As the dealers are at least working around MSRP. I say working around, as they are all adding in different amounts for prep etc.

But when NADA was showing average sell values above their original MSRP, that's when a financial institution has to cringe a little bit and start turning down loans without a significant down payment. You know that can't last. I saw my first one last week, someone took a screen shot of a market value of a 212x which was higher than MSRP. I about crapped!

 

[Evil Sports]

Hard part is staying patient and waiting for the right deals. This next purchase will most likely be for the gulf with twin outboards. While I plan to do some looking at the end of the month I know it's gonna be a while before things start to fall back to reality and below.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I manage a manufactured home retail location. Wood was under tremendous stress that last 12 months. As fast as it rose it is now crashing. Cathie Woods is the brilliant CEO of Ark Invest and she warns all investors that inflation is going to be short term and deflation will be dominating the future as disruptive technology's drive down cost and displace inefficient manufacturing and ways of doing business.

Great read link below

Cathie Wood: The Big Risk Is Deflation, Not Inflation | Chief Investment Officer

The founder of Ark Invest laid out potential market winners and losers if her prediction pans out.

www.ai-cio.com

Just look at wood over the past 18 months.

 

[2kwik4u]

Hard part is staying patient and waiting for the right deals.

Hit the nail on the head here. I feel like we're already seeing some of the "COVID Sell-Off" happening, and I'm having a HARD time staying away from upgrading our 19ft to a 21-24ft.

What was that movie that had Morgan Freeman saying "Stick to the plan man, just stick to the plan"?!?! That's where I'm at, we have a plan, just gotta stick to it.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Hit the nail on the head here. I feel like we're already seeing some of the "COVID Sell-Off" happening, and I'm having a HARD time staying away from upgrading our 19ft to a 21-24ft.

What was that movie that had Morgan Freeman saying "Stick to the plan man, just stick to the plan"?!?! That's where I'm at, we have a plan, just gotta stick to it.

Like I mentioned in another thread, I am going to let the cold winds of the coming winter cool some of these expectations

 

[Ronnie]

If the boat market bubble is bursting people in CA haven’t gotten the memo yet. I can’t find a used yamaha jetboat within 100 miles. Here is a 2005 230 currently on Facebook market place, I pretty sure that is what it sold for in 2005.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

I don't think the bubble will burst, but it is likely to deflate.

You still see prices all over the place on facebook marketplace. Some are good prices, some are crazy with a whole bunch in-between. The $64,000 question is what will these boats actually sell for? This is a little tough to gauge correctly on marketplace, but one would assume that the boats no longer for sale, likely have sold.

Jim

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I don't think the bubble will burst, but it is likely to deflate.

You still see prices all over the place on facebook marketplace. Some are good prices, some are crazy with a whole bunch in-between. The $64,000 question is what will these boats actually sell for? This is a little tough to gauge correctly on marketplace, but one would assume that the boats no longer for sale, likely have sold.

Jim

I tend to agree. I don’t see any significant price reduction in the near term. New boats are still selling well and the prices have and are only going up. I feel as long as the new boats are selling at current prices the used market will be strong.

 

[Sean R]

And you know they will still keep financing new boats. As the dealers are at least working around MSRP. I say working around, as they are all adding in different amounts for prep etc.

But when NADA was showing average sell values above their original MSRP, that's when a financial institution has to cringe a little bit and start turning down loans without a significant down payment. You know that can't last. I saw my first one last week, someone took a screen shot of a market value of a 212x which was higher than MSRP. I about crapped!

Just checked my boat value on NADA, Holy shit your correct, my boats market value is $3000 over Msrp. Crazy

 

[tkeru408]

Just checked my boat value on NADA, Holy shit your correct, my boats market value is $3000 over Msrp. Crazy

Wow, you aren't kidding. After seeing your post, I just checked mine...NADA has average retail at $5,350 over MSRP!

 

[HangOutdoors]

Just checked mine on NADA and it suggests it is worth $10,000-13,000 more than what I paid for it. And if I sell off the Lithiums, trolling motor and Garmin that would fetch another $3,000 - $4,000 That would be nice, but then I don't have anything Would have to bet, if I could sell it now, that something would be available this winter. Not sure I would want to gamble it.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

I believe that NADA is retail price sold by a dealer. My thought is that the buy/sold price of a private seller would likely be less.

Jim