JetBoaters.net Bimini Fling June 19 to 25 2016

[ACrews]

Well. I want to go as bad as anyone but if i knew how to calculate more than a 10% chanceof loaing the boat I'd stay closet to shore. Ooof. I think I've already driven farther than 90%!of us.

1740 miles so far.

The man of the hour! Where have ya made it to so far?

 

[Jr15g]

I can't go on Sunday. If that is the new departure date, I'm out. I do understand and wish y'all a safe crossing and an awesome time in Bimini. I will safe my Bimini Sand's reservation for next year.

 

[Bruce]

@Manchild, sorry you can not make it. Any crossing after Sunday morning is out of the question.

 

[Bruce]

ore than a 10% chanceof loaing the boat

Last year 10% of us were swamped leaving Port Everglades. I do not want to understate the seriousness of this crossing.

 

[Bruce]

This was the forecast for the groups return crossing last year.

 

[robert843]

This was the forecast for the groups return crossing last year.

View attachment 39357

This is great because it can show how wrong forecasts can be even the day of. There is no way we had an 11 second period near shore of Ft Lauderdale it was closer to 2-3 seconds it was as bad or worse then the crossing near shore of Ft Lauderdale in period at least.

 

[MrMoose]

If the forecast to get there looks safe, and the Bimini weather is workable, I want to go. @robert843 you are very correct when you point out that weather can really impact someone's ability to enjoy a vacation. If we go, I expect that my wife will never go again, or she'll insist that we get a bigger boat.
@Bruce forgot to mention the high probability of experiencing motion sickness. I decided to not bring my porta-poti this year because we did not use it last year, and besides, if you've puked everything up and are unable to eat for a day, then the likelihood of having to do a #2 while on the boat is pretty low.

 

[Majorsmackdown]

The man of the hour! Where have ya made it to so far?

Man I can't believe how many typos my iphone makes. Ha!

Dearborn Missouri raaat now. Long ways to go.

 

[Bruce]

Man I can't believe how many typos my iphone makes. Ha!

Dearborn Missouri raaat now. Long ways to go.

Just south of Kansas City. You will be ahead of me by tomorrow night.

 

[Majorsmackdown]

Last year 10% of us were swamped leaving Port Everglades. I do not want to understate the seriousness of this crossing.

Typos make for a tough read. I meant to say, and perhaps it was taken as such, a 10% chance of losing my boat and all the chaos and heartache that goes along with that would likely keep me from crossing. I don't think getting wet - short of being swamped -would be too bad. But those things are hard to predict. I know you/we are all trying really hard to make calculated decisions. Thanks.

 

[Jessie Uptergrove]

About to set out from Texas...just wondering if anyone is still going to do something besides Bimini? Ideas kicked around on this forum earlier included Clearwater, Siesta Key and Destin. We are definitely headed to Florida but very uncertain about the crossing itself.

 

[rkgdmd]

Unless they are close to one of the ends they are screwed. They simply have to get on another boat and complete the crossing. They lose their boat and their stuff. The "window" is 1.4' seas. Later in the day they will reach over 6'.

Lol. Wow. I think you should sit down and reread that post Bruce. I generally like to relax a bit while boating...this plan does not seem to include that. Also, let's be honest, wind and wave forecasts are notoriously for shit. You are not allowing much wiggle room. Be careful and good luck! If the weather improves, I'm going to try go on the 27th...only if the weather is excellent. My day job gives me enough stress and I don't need anymore! Lol.

 

[latitudeadjuster]

About to set out from Texas...just wondering if anyone is still going to do something besides Bimini? Ideas kicked around on this forum earlier included Clearwater, Siesta Key and Destin. We are definitely headed to Florida but very uncertain about the crossing itself.

I added you to the conversation

 

[Bruce]

The Exhumas crew is crossing in 1.8 foot seas with 4 second dominant periods. They averaged around 25 mph near Fort Lauderdale and have picked up to 30 close to Bimini. Looks like they will complete the crossing in around 2.5 hours. They seem to have stopped twice.

 

[rkgdmd]

About to set out from Texas...just wondering if anyone is still going to do something besides Bimini? Ideas kicked around on this forum earlier included Clearwater, Siesta Key and Destin. We are definitely headed to Florida but very uncertain about the crossing itself.

Hey Jessie....Islamorada is only a 2 to 2 1/2 hr cruise down the ICW from Miami. A cruise down the crystal clear waters of Biscayne Bay into the Keys ain't too shabby. Probably some of the nicest snorkeling you'll see short of Bimini...and in many ways better. Sandbars, clear and CALM waters, plenty to do. Not a bad second choice....plus the sport fishing capital of the world.

 

[latitudeadjuster]

I must be feeling optimistic

View attachment 39353

Or...you and your family will be eating smoked piggie for a month lol

 

[Bruce]

Lol. Wow. I think you should sit down and reread that post Bruce. I generally like to relax a bit while boating...this plan does not seem to include that. Also, let's be honest, wind and wave forecasts are notoriously for shit. You are not allowing much wiggle room. Be careful and good luck! If the weather improves, I'm going to try go on the 27th...only if the weather is excellent. My day job gives me enough stress and I don't need anymore! Lol.

I am being straight with everyone. I do not want to sugar coat the risk associated with this trip. We picked our dates in advance based on availability. We have moved the crossing to Bimini to the best day / only day that it is possible. There have been times this week that I felt we should not cross. We could have had fair weather for our planned dates unfortunately the forecast is rough. If it were too rough my family would not be going.

 

[latitudeadjuster]

So we should change the sunday night to bahi mar and slip to saturday, if available. Amd call Hilton in bimini for Sunday? You already checked with sands for Sunday right?

 

[kthrash]

I would just sleep on the boat..

 

[Bruce]

@MrMoose, @chris24 and I reviewed the weather this morning. We found;

1. The forecast crossing window for Sunday morning is still open and has possibly improved. I am planning for a three hour 20 mph crossing in 1.5' waves at 3 second periods which is less severe than the Exhumas group made a 2.5 hour crossing in this morning.

2. The weather and wave forecast in Bimini has improved. There are lots of periods of rain but generally the amounts of rain are small and likely to be localized. The waves are large at 1.8' at the beginning of the week but are well spaced and less severe than what the Exhumas group crossed in this morning.

3. The return crossing is unknown. Wave Finder is the only source of wave forecast data that far out. It is likely to be unreliable due to how far out it is. Yesterday wave finder was showing 2.7' seas for the return. Today they are showing 3.3'. SailFlow, Buoy Weather and Passage Weather all show decreasing seas in the Gulf Stream from 5' on Monday morning to 2' on Thursday morning when their forecasts cut off. Over the next two days we will learn if they show that trend continuing. If it does not then we will need to return at the low point which might be on Thursday or Friday.

Based on this information we have decided to head toward Fort Lauderdale. If the crossing window for Sunday were to close we will need to cancel the trip and head to plan b destinations.

Currently Bahia Mar has availability for rooms and slips on Saturday night. Some have already moved their reservations.

We would like to have everyone who will be going checked into Bahia Mar by 5 PM on Saturday for a 6 AM Sunday departure. If this is not possible please be at Harbor Towne Marina ready to launch at daylight and meet us at the Port Everglades turning basin. Those that make it to Bahia Mar will be more rested and have a better trip. Depending on weather conditions it is likely that we will need to leave anyone who is running late.


I will contact Bimini Sands today to ask about extending our reservations. It is unlikely that any condos that are not currently booked for Sunday will be booked for Sunday between now and then. The backup plan would be to stay at the Hilton for Sunday night. With Resorts Worlds high slip fees the cost for a hotel room with slip will be about the same as staying at Bimini Sands.

I do not want to understate the danger of this trip or unnecessarily scare you off. The forecast for Sunday morning is around 1.4' seas with 3 second dominant periods. That is less than the forecast for last years crossing to Bimini but more than last years return crossing. With 3 second periods the waves will be tightly spaced. There will not be any breaks from the waves for the entire crossing period. The return trip will be in larger waves. Likely larger than I would want to take the group to Bimini in. I am counting on all of us gaining comfort with the waves and how our boats handle them on the way to and while in Bimini so that we can return with the experience to handle bigger water on the way back.

I will follow up with a second post with forecast data.

Please discuss this with your families and let me know if you will be joining us.

We could have a group call to discuss the crossing later today if you are interested.