@MrMoose,
@chris24 and I reviewed the weather this morning. We found;
1. The forecast crossing window for Sunday morning is still open and has possibly improved. I am planning for a three hour 20 mph crossing in 1.5' waves at 3 second periods which is less severe than the Exhumas group made a 2.5 hour crossing in this morning.
2. The weather and wave forecast in Bimini has improved. There are lots of periods of rain but generally the amounts of rain are small and likely to be localized. The waves are large at 1.8' at the beginning of the week but are well spaced and less severe than what the Exhumas group crossed in this morning.
3. The return crossing is unknown. Wave Finder is the only source of wave forecast data that far out. It is likely to be unreliable due to how far out it is. Yesterday wave finder was showing 2.7' seas for the return. Today they are showing 3.3'. SailFlow, Buoy Weather and Passage Weather all show decreasing seas in the Gulf Stream from 5' on Monday morning to 2' on Thursday morning when their forecasts cut off. Over the next two days we will learn if they show that trend continuing.
If it does not then we will need to return at the low point which might be on Thursday or Friday.
Based on this information we have decided to head toward Fort Lauderdale. If the crossing window for Sunday were to close we will need to cancel the trip and head to plan b destinations.
Currently Bahia Mar has availability for rooms and slips on Saturday night. Some have already moved their reservations.
We would like to have everyone who will be going checked into Bahia Mar by 5 PM on Saturday for a 6 AM Sunday departure. If this is not possible please be at Harbor Towne Marina ready to launch at daylight and meet us at the Port Everglades turning basin. Those that make it to Bahia Mar will be more rested and have a better trip.
Depending on weather conditions it is likely that we will need to leave anyone who is running late.
I will contact Bimini Sands today to ask about extending our reservations. It is unlikely that any condos that are not currently booked for Sunday will be booked for Sunday between now and then. The backup plan would be to stay at the Hilton for Sunday night. With Resorts Worlds high slip fees the cost for a hotel room with slip will be about the same as staying at Bimini Sands.
I do not want to understate the danger of this trip or unnecessarily scare you off. The forecast for Sunday morning is around 1.4' seas with 3 second dominant periods. That is less than the forecast for last years crossing to Bimini but more than last years return crossing. With 3 second periods the waves will be tightly spaced. There will not be any breaks from the waves for the entire crossing period. The return trip will be in larger waves. Likely larger than I would want to take the group to Bimini in. I am counting on all of us gaining comfort with the waves and how our boats handle them on the way to and while in Bimini so that we can return with the experience to handle bigger water on the way back.
I will follow up with a second post with forecast data.
Please discuss this with your families and let me know if you will be joining us.
We could have a group call to discuss the crossing later today if you are interested.
