Coronavirus

[J-RAD]

In less than two weeks more American lives will have been lost to CovID-19 than to the Vietnam War.

Yeah, back on April 3rd I did some math using statistics out of NY comparing it and the death rate. I projected that if we were to use the death rate in that state and apply it nationally we would have .5% of the population infected (1.6 million) and over 39,000 deaths, which would be more American deaths than the Korean War.

https://jetboaters.net/threads/coronavirus.25464/post-432124

Well, we're currently sitting at .24% of the U.S. population (795,960) infected and 42,604 dead. Am I doing my math right? Is that a 5% death rate? Should I be adding the 72,368 recovered to the total cases? Obviously we're debating quality of the statistics and data here.

Regardless, the point remains, IF we were at war, and these were Americans dying on a battlefield, what would the mentality of the nation be? We're only a few weeks into this "conflict" and already more deaths associated with this than the Korean War (33,686) and approaching that of the Vietnam war... the sad thing is, this is the same generation that's losing their lives now. That makes me feel kind of shitty...

I mean, if we just needed to sit our asses at home for a couple weeks to win this war, it should have been the easiest war we have ever been fought to win... it's just not hitting home quite the same way as controversial war would. Is it complacency because it's a fight against nature and not other human beings?

 

[Jp207]

So I will say by no means am I even close to an expert on this and can enlighten you in any way. We have so many invaluable resources here in this forum from front line workers @tabbibus to people that understand this on a level I would never be able to understand and quite frankly the vocabulary scares me! Lol. Looking at you @swatski and @Bruce. @Julian i would include you as well.
I completely understand the need to social distance from those that are unknown and practicing in my mind good normal hygiene. However my question is the numbers. We seemingly have no ability to test the mass populace. So we test the sick or those showing symptoms. To me this in turn would lead to misleading numbers. I can report every day the amount of people that die in a specific way and make it look scary. Hell they did it in Chicago long enough that you would think it was a wasteland no one wanted to go to but I travel there often for work and never once saw an act of violence. While I will not down play the severity of this I would like more hard data to justify one measure or the other. I realize that the death toll is approaching numbers that way only compare to the the Vietnam war or that seem so catastrophic that we might never return to a normal we knew before. But also if you can’t quantify those that have been sick and not tested or even those that may have the antibodies to fight it then how can you truly come up with a mortality rate?..... I understand testing is limited and quite specific. However using data from anywhere else or even any other country is flawed. Until we can determine the real numbers and subsequent data we won’t know. Speaking only on behalf of my state of Maine we have almost 900 cases and 40 deaths. Virtually all of them are older and would have had a hard time fighting off pneumonia let alone this. I know being here we are quite isolated and don’t get many outsiders this time of year but if the spread was really that bad wouldn’t it be showing up in places that aren’t normally subject to these things. Up until today we finally had a reported case in our last county of 16. Now that county is as isolated as you can get and quite frankly one I thought may not even see it. And for the last six weeks the media here has been saying just a matter of time before it is in all 16 counties so they were right but it took six weeks to make it true. I mean if I say I’m eventually going to win the lottery and then I do, am I a Nostradamus too?.... I’m truly lost and not sure what’s best. Do i practice social distancing yes but we also let our children play with other friends that we know practice the same measures we do and never doubt that. I’m not sure what the answer is at this point or how to even do the right thing. I’m sorry rant over and may be Jameson fueled but I just needed to vent and happy to do it here.

 

[Bruce]

@Jp207, we could get into a huge debate about the mortality rate but for me one statistic overrides them all. In a typical year 4,500 New Yorkers die from the flu. In the last month more than 18,000 New Yorkers have died from CovID-19.

 

[GTBRMC]

@Jp207, we could get into a huge debate about the mortality rate but for me one statistics overrides them all. In a typical year 4,500 New Yorkers die from the flu. In the lat month more than 18,000 New Yorkers have died from CovID-19.

This is the stat that cannot be argued overstated / understated / definition / etc: Year over year total deaths in a specific area.

For example (note this is from the UK)::



Source: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

 

[GTBRMC]

Here is another. UK data, for whatever reason, seem to be far more current and accessible than US data. This one is also eye-watering:

 

[Babin Farms]

@Bruce & @swatski , just wanted to say thanks for all of the great info that you’ve provided in this thread. Most is beyond comprehension for some of us but you still keep us informed. Keep up the good work

 

[tabbibus]

Governor is opening shit up again on Friday. Honestly, I'm feeling a strong urge to freaking quit and find something else to do. May pick up a telemedicine job or something. Sometimes it feels that it is just not worth it. I hope I'm wrong, and nothing happens... but it is discouraging.

 

[BigN8]

Man, I'm worried about some of you guys. I will be honest and say I am only reading maybe the first sentence of the last 30-40 posts. All this speculation and statistical figuring of deaths and cases and beds, and etc, is going to wear you guys down. I know I for one have no control over it and therefore have no desire to read it. But that is just me. I'm just trying to say I think some of you guys would have a little less stress and anxiety not dwelling on the statistics so much.

My focus when visiting this thread is to learn new info that can help me and my family get through this pandemic. I also like reading the positive stories from @tabbibus , @Bruce , and others.

I predict that a few will say that by analyzing the statistics, this can determine or forecast the future. It may help you or me understand when the shelter in place will end and perhaps when we can somewhat resume a normal life. That may be so, but at a very small margin of accuracy. And at what cost to your mental health is this worth?

Yesterday at dinner the family was asking about our summer vacation. They were curious if we would be able to do our family trip and if so where can we go. As the Dad and therefore the family travel agent this burden always falls on me. Originally we were planning on a trip to Kauai in the summer. Then I read an article yesterday that the locals in Hawaii are resentful of tourists coming over to the islands during this time. They are actually yelling at tourists and slashing rental car tires. You know what, I get it. I told my kids about the story and they agreed, they said the same thing. So Kauai is out for this year out of respect for the people who live on the islands. Then I started thinking and talking to them about Mexico. And the conversation went on.

Realistically, I have no idea. And, as much as I'd like to plan this trip, maybe it just isn't in the cards this year. We have no idea what the future holds for us. The best we can do is take each day at a time, and live in the moment to the best of your ability and be thankful for what you have.

Now if anyone has a hot tip on a good relaxing vacation spot in the CONUS then let me know!

 

[seanmclean]

Yeah, vacations this year will be tricky. We had a trip to Chicago planned for late June - that's all but cancelled IMO at the moment. I'm keeping my flight reservations for now so I can potentially adjust later (I've actually rebooked it three times as the flights keep getting cheaper), and will be able to keep the same fare for a different date rebooking. We were also planning to go to Key West in September. I'm about 50/50 on that.

 

[Bruce]

My guess is that some social distancing and travel restrictions will remain for two years.

 

[Mainah]

Governor is opening shit up again on Friday. Honestly, I'm feeling a strong urge to freaking quit and find something else to do. May pick up a telemedicine job or something. Sometimes it feels that it is just not worth it. I hope I'm wrong, and nothing happens... but it is discouraging.

Please stay strong. We need you out there and you are appreciated. I am in one of those states where most stuff is starting to open back up. Is not going to change my resolve with limiting store trips to a max of one per week, not socializing in person, botching our DIY haircuts, and taking very careful precautions all around. Same for my brother a few towns over. There are those of us who refuse to become part of the problem and will keep our resolve.

Many of those same folks who refuse to become part of the problem have also found ways to support local businesses by buying local to help the economic end. As much as I like Amazon they are doing very very well and don't need the help. I have bought sunglasses from a local business one town over and had them shipped, sourced meat and produce from local farmers without having direct contact, done drive up take out from local non-chain dine in restaurants, ordered supplies from the local ACE hardware and had them delivered, ordered from the local auto parts store for delivery, and ordered from the local landscape supply for delivery. It has cost us a bit more but I feel very strongly about supporting local right now and not going out to the big box petri dishes that are still open and doing very well. I know it is not much but we are doing what we can and I know others that are as well.

Stay safe and stay strong!

 

[Betik]

It would seem on the surface that for the majority of us getting it and developing the antibodies is the fastest, most efficient way to fight it. Why does it affect different folks differently? I’m not a doctor, I don’t even play one on TV, my guess is something genetically makes certain people susceptible. The numbers suggest men are more likely to die from it. People with blood type A are more likely to die from it. That puts me in a bad place I’m both lol.

Please be cautious how you interpret different correlations

 

[GTBRMC]

Again, it is easy to see the mortality impact when you ignore scorekeeping and look at year-over-year total deaths in a given area. Same chart as before, with data updated to include week ending April 10:

 

[Weeb]

We were suppose to go to O’ahu in July for two weeks also with my grownup daughter and other people. I told her I’m not going anywhere until there’s a cure for this. I have heart disease and smoke cigars ( not to smart) so I’m at high risk for complications from this virus. I was building an observation tower at Fort Bragg in January, my buddy got real sick and I joked about maybe him having the virus going around China killing people. It had just come out on the news so I didn’t really know how bad it was. A few days later I got sick also. I was working in the cold with 103 temp. I ran that high temp for four days, two of which were in bed. At some point I’d like to get tested to see if I did have it. It seems like it would have been to early and two other guys with us didn’t get sick at all.

 

[tabbibus]

Please stay strong. We need you out there and you are appreciated. I am in one of those states where most stuff is starting to open back up. Is not going to change my resolve with limiting store trips to a max of one per week, not socializing in person, botching our DIY haircuts, and taking very careful precautions all around. Same for my brother a few towns over. There are those of us who refuse to become part of the problem and will keep our resolve.

Many of those same folks who refuse to become part of the problem have also found ways to support local businesses by buying local to help the economic end. As much as I like Amazon they are doing very very well and don't need the help. I have bought sunglasses from a local business one town over and had them shipped, sourced meat and produce from local farmers without having direct contact, done drive up take out from local non-chain dine in restaurants, ordered supplies from the local ACE hardware and had them delivered, ordered from the local auto parts store for delivery, and ordered from the local landscape supply for delivery. It has cost us a bit more but I feel very strongly about supporting local right now and not going out to the big box petri dishes that are still open and doing very well. I know it is not much but we are doing what we can and I know others that are as well.

Stay safe and stay strong!

Thanks for those words. Reading the facebooks and the reddits I see many people echoing your sentiment of staying smart despite the what the "leaders" say. Gives one hope. When I spend a whole week in the basement, not being able to touch my kids and wife, because I'm on ICU service, it hits you hard to see things like people protesting and the opening up of nail salons and gyms.

Thanks.

Absolutely agree with the supporting local business thing.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Thanks for those words. Reading the facebooks and the reddits I see many people echoing your sentiment of staying smart despite the what the "leaders" say. Gives one hope. When I spend a whole week in the basement, not being able to touch my kids and wife, because I'm on ICU service, it hits you hard to see things like people protesting and the opening up of nail salons and gyms.

Thanks.

Absolutely agree with the supporting local business thing.

I can only imagine your stress and worries as a frontline medical worker but I would be cautious to judge other people’s situations or reasoning for their own opinions. If you were a father and couldn’t provide basic necessities for your family you might have a different view of the situation.

Simply put not everyone is in the same boat.

 

[tabbibus]

I can only imagine your stress and worries as a frontline medical worker but I would be cautious to judge other people’s situations or reasoning for their own opinions. If you were a father and couldn’t provide basic necessities for your family you might have a different view of the situation.

Simply put not everyone is in the same boat.

I'm not sure where I'm judging. I understand the hardships that this situation brings on many people. I personally know people who are really struggling. That doesn't negate the facts that if we have a second wave due to early openings or a rise in sick people due to protesters getting sick, things will be much worse for everyone. Decidedly so for those who were already struggling to begin with. Please don't mistake my concern for a worsening scenario with a lack of empathy. These are not mutually exclusive.

 

[Dean P]

I can only imagine your stress and worries as a frontline medical worker but I would be cautious to judge other people’s situations or reasoning for their own opinions. If you were a father and couldn’t provide basic necessities for your family you might have a different view of the situation.

Simply put not everyone is in the same boat.

I don't believe anyone is judging but to say we're not all in the same boat IMO is not true. Due to this virus' ability to spread without judgement, means we're all in this together. There is a super high probability if you come in contact with someone that has it you will have it too. I would rather be hungry than dead. @tabbibus quarantines himself while the time he's at work to make sure not to infect his family. This guy is f!king amasing to go in everyday risking his life to save others. They are making the ultimate sacrifice.

 

[swatski]

I can only imagine your stress and worries as a frontline medical worker but I would be cautious to judge other people’s situations or reasoning for their own opinions. If you were a father and couldn’t provide basic necessities for your family you might have a different view of the situation.

Simply put not everyone is in the same boat.

Few of us are not at risk of being furloughed. I think most here understand your position. I sympathize fully.

However, there is another side of this which reminds me a bit of people demonstrating for animal rights, like PETA.
I would think that's okay - as long as they rescind use of any medications where research with animal models is involved.

By the same token, should anti-social-distancing protesters rescind medical care, if they get sick?

EDIT: perhaps more appropriate comparison of social distancing guidelines would be to highway speed limits. Those can be fundamentally flawed at individual's level, especially if you driving a new corvette. But they are there for a reason.

--

 

[I_squared_r]

Me thinking out loud...

I believe wisdom and common sense goes a long way. I felt, all my life, I've had/have good common sense. I've tried to live a "practical" life. I've always kept an open mind to things I do not understand and to those things I thought I understood. Wisdom, IMO, sets in latter in life. When these 2 things meet, you truly have a different perspective on life. I really like this stage. Where am I going with all this? I have 2 highly educated boys, of whom I'm super proud of, but don't fully grasp the concept of social distancing and hand washing. They do keep to their own and wash their hands but without a full understanding the implications if you don't. Is this a generation thing/gap/age/intellect/money thing? I keep asking "Why don't they get it?" Is it because they think and feel they're invincible. Do they think this is "Not a big deal"? The school of "hard knocks" is cruel and often punishing. I wouldn't advise taking any classes. But, some lessons are tough to learn and tough to teach. I hope we do not learn the hard way. The price is life changing.

End of thought.

I've found it to be the opposite. A lot of older people here in NYC were like "f*** that, i've lived through a lot in my life. This virus is a joke." but as time went on, everyone knows someone that has died from this. Now they're all walking around with masks, face shields, and gloves. And now 99% of the people here in the tri-state area are adhering to the guidelines. Just to put it into perspective, in 9/11 almost 3,000 people died and everyone knew someone or a friend/family of someone that either died or was impacted by the event. The coronavirus deaths here are over 11,000. Everyone knows someone that has died. Last week I broke the news to my mom that someone had died and I had to comfort her while she was crying and saying "when is this going to stop?!?" Then yesterday I received news that a friend of a friend, 32 years old, has passed away after intubation for 2 weeks. Everyday on facebook it's someones grandma, uncle, friend etc.

So my blood boils when I see shit like this. This will be a historical photo that won't be forgotten. So go ahead and study this photo - is this how we will be remembered?