The Vaccine

[MidnightRider]

We’re miscommunicating.

Those factors definitely matter in the decision of whether I take a risk or not. They still have no bearing on the actual risk, which is what you’re trying to isolate as objectively as possible in a risk analysis. Past experiences can be an important one to fill in the unknowns in an analysis, emotions are not.

Yep I get what you are saying. My whole point is, if all human conclusions from risk analysis are laced with emotions, experiences, and other complex personal human factors, then what makes your conclusion better than mine? Why would you judge my conclusion as the wrong choice just because it doesn't line up with your conclusion. This is what I see happening all over. We both have tainted analysis so for someone to judge, hate, look down on another conclusion based on their own conclusion doesn't make any sense. Its their conclusion and their choice.

 

[AZMark]

Your right. Maybe it’s time to start a mask thread.

Because the homemade masks with poor fit and people who constantly adjust their masks or pull them down are a pet peeve of mine.

Mine would be the masked alone in a car, alone walking down the street, etc. No value outside of being great fodder for anti mask people.

 

[Adrian @ JB Solutions]

Mine would be the masked alone in a car, alone walking down the street, etc. No value outside of being great fodder for anti mask people.

I love the ones on the beach and they end up with a mask tan.

 

[AZMark]

Yep I get what you are saying. My whole point is, if all human conclusions from risk analysis are laced with emotions, experiences, and other complex personal human factors, then what makes your conclusion better than mine? Why would you judge my conclusion as the wrong choice just because it doesn't line up with your conclusion. This is what I see happening all over. We both have tainted analysis so for someone to judge, hate, look down on another conclusion based on their own conclusion doesn't make any sense. Its their conclusion and their choice.

I don’t hate on anyone for their decisions.

I do think there are a lot of people that don’t actually understand the implications of their decisions and many sources of information are not helping that.

I live in an area that isn’t particularly on board with masks, vaccines, etc and I look at some of the people around and they are absolutely going to die if they get covid. Obese, old, diabetes, you name it, but they seem to honestly believe their risk of an adverse reaction to a shot is higher than they face with covid based on bad information and a flawed analysis. I had a neighbor telling me very sincerely the other day I need to get my hands on blood thinners to keep around for the blood clots I’m going to get from the vaccine I got 5 months ago. His analysis that I’m the one at higher risk is completely wrong because he’s not using facts.

 

[the MfM]

UK panel does not recommend COVID vaccines for healthy 12- to 15-year-olds

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain's vaccine advisers said they were not recommending the vaccination of all 12- to 15-year-olds against COVID-19, preferring a precautionary approach in healthy children due to a rare side effect of heart inflammation. The advice could see Britain pursue a different...

www.yahoo.com

 

[MidnightRider]

It’s entertainment, just like most of this site. Humans like to debate. This one has gotten close to off the rails a few times but it seems to get back on track. I don’t understand the getting upset about it existing.

Yep I miss the days were I could have a heated debate with a friend, both be ok with that disagreement and then go out boating for the rest of the day as best friends. The value of being able to disagree and and still respect and even like each other seems to be a lost concept around me more and more as I get older. The idea that if you don't agree with me then you are against me is so tiring and just makes me less and less wanting to talk to anyone about anything real. For me I can disagree vehemently with you one moment and then give you the shirt of my back the next. From the majority of my interactions on the forum it seems there are still some of those people around which is nice to know.

 

[Acard7]

Yep I miss the days were I could have a heated debate with a friend, both be ok with that disagreement and then go out boating for the rest of the day as best friends. The value of being able to disagree and and still respect and even like each other seems to be a lost concept around me more and more as I get older. The idea that if you don't agree with me then you are against me is so tiring and just makes me less and less wanting to talk to anyone about anything real. For me I can disagree vehemently with you one moment and then give you the shirt of my back the next. From the majority of my interactions on the forum it seems there are still some of those people around which is nice to know.

I have a good friend like this, we have gotten in heated debates about a ton of things, he’s sometimes the lone man out when we are with a group of friends. But in the end we all respect each other’s opinions and have a beer anyways. Sometimes learn a thing or two. We’ve been friends for about 15 years or so. I’d still have a beer with any one of the forum members even if we disagreed, we will always agree boating is a lifestyle no one could disagree with or debate! Unless you’re talking about TVs vs CJS ??

 

[mwalker4]

Mine would be the masked alone in a car, alone walking down the street, etc. No value outside of being great fodder for anti mask people.

Mine is anyone who says follow the science and then doesn't. Which includes all of your examples. I would not eat at an indoor restaurant prior to getting a vaccine. I didn't see a way to do it within my personal risk tolerance. Post vaccine I do so multiple times a day, but try not to eat at places that require masks. Wearing the mask for 10 feet to the table then taking it off at the table followed by talking and laughter seems silly to me. Seems like people are required to wear masks during the least risky activity. I also avoid waiting in restaurant lobbies because I hate it and it is the most risky of the activities in a restaurant.

 

[swatski]

I remember an early press conference with Fauci and Trump where the Dr said something to the effect that there would be no vaccine for two to three years. And he also said if there was one that we could not be sure if it would be safe.

apparently he changed his risk analysis

I don't think Fauci was the only one surprised by the rapid advance the BioNtech and Moderna was about to make, in fact the success of those outfits was completely unprecedented.

For context, Fauci has also been overlooking the fiasco of HIV vaccination attempts - going on for over three decades now, I would think he figures the success in not the only option in these programs.

Just like any good R&D, those who practice hypothesis driven science professionally know very well the success rate of getting it right is often abysmally low. Such is the nature of the beast. Often times you have to go with the best data you have.

Is that surprising to you??? Really?

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[the MfM]

I don't think Fauci was the only one surprised by the rapid advance the BioNtech and Moderna was about to make, in fact the success of those outfits was completely unprecedented.

For context, Fauci has also been overlooking the fiasco of HIV vaccination attempts - going on for over three decades now, I would think he figures the success in not the only option in these programs.

Just like any good R&D, those who practice hypothesis driven science professionally know very well the success rate of getting it right is often abysmally low. Such is the nature of the beast. Often times you have to go with the best data you have.

Is that surprising to you??? Really?

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My point was that when the person being presented as the leading expert says things like that one shouldn’t be surprised by the vaccine hesitancy of the general public months later.

 

[Bruce]

A .05% chance of dying from COVID. It is what it is, statistically. You might think that's high, I think it's low.

In Arkansas there are 7,057 confirmed CoVID-19 deaths and and 460,363 diagnosed CoVID-19 infections.

1.53% of Arkansans diagnosed with CoVID-19 have died.

29% of Arkansans hospitalized for CoVID-19 have died.

Of course we do not have enough testing however based on excess deaths we are undercounting CoVID deaths by around 50% as well.

Probably not enough for you to care but more than 30 times the percentage you are slinging.

 

[Bruce]

I remember an early press conference with Fauci and Trump where the Dr said something to the effect that there would be no vaccine for two to three years. And he also said if there was one that we could not be sure if it would be safe.

apparently he changed his risk analysis

Typically 80% of clinical studies fail. In light of that his statement was quite reasonable. There was no reason to expect that the first vaccine candidates would be successful.

It is painful both for the developers and for the potential patients when they do.

We were fortunate when four of the early vaccine candidates were successful. Three or more of which were sufficiently safe and effective to meet FDA standards for approval.

Do you remember when the CDC was hoping for a vaccine to be 50% effective? We were blessed with vaccines that are more than 80% effective.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

My point was that when the person being presented as the leading expert says things like that one shouldn’t be surprised by the vaccine hesitancy of the general public months later.

There has NEVER been such successful vaccines produced in such a short time frame. To criticize Fauci for underestimating the speed of development and manufacturing is just plain silly. As we know, Operation Warp Speed promoted mass production of multiple vaccines, and different types of vaccine technologies. It was an expensive gambit that was very successful.

Jim

 

[the MfM]

There has NEVER been such successful vaccines produced in such a short time frame. To criticize Fauci for underestimating the speed of development and manufacturing is just plain silly. As we know, Operation Warp Speed promoted mass production of multiple vaccines, and different types of vaccine technologies. It was an expensive gambit that was very successful.

Jim

I’m not criticizing him for underestimating rather how the messaging from .gov that has changed often. Yeah there are reasons and analysis. But the average person on the street doesn’t put that much thought into why the message has changed. Which, I believe is why there are so many people that don’t trust what they are hearing now.

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

 

[Bruce]

@the MfM, such science typically occurs in labs and through journals that few read.

This time it played out in real time.

The average person is quite ignorant of how medical treatments are developed.

That does not change how miraculous the development of the vaccines was or how incredibly safe and effective they are.

Unfortunately a large number of selfish Americans want to play politics and use ignorance as an excuse for not doing what is right for all of us.

That is not the ethic that made our republic possible and is harmful to its preservation.

 

[swatski]

Which, I believe is why there are so many people that don’t trust what they are hearing now.

Yet, some of the same people do trust advice of internet trolls pushing ivermectin and bonkers conspiracy theories.

If Fauci's fault is that he's addressing the nation as if speaking to thinking adults, what would you want him to do instead???

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[tabbibus]

Some bad news out of Israel. They have one of the highest percentages of vaccinated people, and also one of the highest daily rates of new cases anywhere in the world.

Or good news. With the booster, severe cases have taken a dramatic decline.

 

[swatski]

Or good news. With the booster, severe cases have taken a dramatic decline.

EXACTLY.

Is that info difficult to adjudicate?

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[Cas1986]

So maybe this has been mentioned, but if you are concerned about contracting covid, then you have the option to: social distance, wear a mask, get a vaccine... or two, stay home.

If only as much attention was paid to the health hazards of the sugar industry and the burden it places on the health care system and the amount of lives lost... but that's no fun to discuss. Living a fit, active life, with good nutrition is the best thing you can do for your body. But none of that is fun to talk about.

 

[swatski]

but if you are concerned about contracting covid, then you have the option to: social distance, wear a mask, get a vaccine... or two, stay home.

Well, that is a discerning, sage advice; though some of us work for a living in a setting where remote work is not practical, or doable.

I work in a crowded lab/office which could be described as high-stress environment, kind of like a "boiler room".
(where we thrive, lol).

I'm with you on the sugar industry baited trap latent dangers.

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