Towing with Tesla Model X

[BlkGS]

I agree, the skateboard philosophy puts a good deal of structure into the battery pack/chassis by itself. Adding the body to the composite structure just helps the situation.

Improved ICE manufacturing has seen that 300k miles is the new 100k miles. You see people buying used cars with 100k+ and expecting another 10years from them, where just a few decades ago 100k engine/transmission was impressive. Now it's more rule than the exception........This (among other things I'm sure) has led to the longest average vehicle ownership windows (something like 12+yrs on average now I think?) we've ever seen. Applying this same "more robust driveline" premise from EV's, and I think we could expect to see that average ownership continue to grow. Battery lifespan will put downward pressure on that ownership window, but my gut tells me it's most likely a net move positive.

Will definitely be interesting to see where this leads us.

I think the bigger pressure will be from cost, lol. People won't be buying new cars as often as they grow more and more expensive.

Honestly, based on similar consumer goods, technology dates things the fastest in vehicles, and older models of phones are in continual states of being phased out. I see no reason to expect the same to not apply to EVs. Why would For give you the newest software features and updates on your 6 year old vehicle vs selling you a new one? And as more and more bloated code gets added, it's only logical to expect your transportation device to run slower, so you hit the AC app on the screen and wait for it to load.

I think the software slowdowns and "protections" will be a big driver for those who can afford to getting a new vehicle in the future. Plus, the sorts of people who like big screens in cars and new tech and all that, they like new shiny stuff. So I think that's a positive for them, the EV fan base is, in general, more likely to put themselves into a continual short term upgrade cycle forever and be very happy about it.

I think there will be a lot of people who will flat out refuse to switch, they'll be turned off by the big screens and all the technology and the high price. There will be plenty of people with no realistic access to charging, because they street park or live in a trailer or live off grid, etc. And an even larger group of people turned off by the stupid designs trying to all look the same but not like normal cars.

I think it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The automakers are totally f'ed if the take rate doesn't explode past their wildest projections. The stock market has rewarded them for their extreme level of risk too. They've basically bet everything on a segment that's roughly the size of minivans. Its a segment that's a little bit larger than manual transmission cars in the US.

Truth be told, I think the segment will grow slower than anticipated, and at least 10% of major automakers that bet big on EVs will fail from it and go bankrupt. If I was a betting man, I'd say it would be Ford of the big 3, because they let their ICE product languish the worst, putting out a lot of garbage lately. FCA stuck with profitable but older vehicles (though looks set to trash themselves on that) but at least has that to fall back on, and they have Jeep which is hard to screw up. GM despite failing at supply chains the worst, does have the best crossover/suv lineup. Ford has really very little to show for itself if they slip on delivering as many EVs as they want to, they don't have a quality product to pivot to if they need to fill the gap. And frankly, the EVs they're planning to put out don't looks that great, silverado looks better than lightning, and the Mach E has been a bit of a dump.

 

[BlkGS]

Whats a lifespan measurement for a battery in an EV?

I know in an industrial application it's usually rated in charge/discharge cycles. Typically in the low 1-2 thousand range. No idea if that is similar for an EV or not.

Clearly 1 charge a day for 10 years is like 3.6k cycles. I doubt you charge once a day though, so perhaps closer to 2k cycles if you charge every other day?

Charge cycles and heat are the enemies of batteries. And the other thing that's going to be the issue is the range degradation, not so much that it flat out stops at 100k miles, more than after 15 years it only has 200 miles of range vs 250, or whatever it works out to. I suspect that max range will be a big determining factor in used EV prices.

 

[thefortunes]

I think the bigger pressure will be from cost, lol. People won't be buying new cars as often as they grow more and more expensive.

Honestly, based on similar consumer goods, technology dates things the fastest in vehicles, and older models of phones are in continual states of being phased out. I see no reason to expect the same to not apply to EVs. Why would For give you the newest software features and updates on your 6 year old vehicle vs selling you a new one? And as more and more bloated code gets added, it's only logical to expect your transportation device to run slower, so you hit the AC app on the screen and wait for it to load.

I think the software slowdowns and "protections" will be a big driver for those who can afford to getting a new vehicle in the future. Plus, the sorts of people who like big screens in cars and new tech and all that, they like new shiny stuff. So I think that's a positive for them, the EV fan base is, in general, more likely to put themselves into a continual short term upgrade cycle forever and be very happy about it.

I think there will be a lot of people who will flat out refuse to switch, they'll be turned off by the big screens and all the technology and the high price. There will be plenty of people with no realistic access to charging, because they street park or live in a trailer or live off grid, etc. And an even larger group of people turned off by the stupid designs trying to all look the same but not like normal cars.

I think it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The automakers are totally f'ed if the take rate doesn't explode past their wildest projections. The stock market has rewarded them for their extreme level of risk too. They've basically bet everything on a segment that's roughly the size of minivans. Its a segment that's a little bit larger than manual transmission cars in the US.

Truth be told, I think the segment will grow slower than anticipated, and at least 10% of major automakers that bet big on EVs will fail from it and go bankrupt. If I was a betting man, I'd say it would be Ford of the big 3, because they let their ICE product languish the worst, putting out a lot of garbage lately. FCA stuck with profitable but older vehicles (though looks set to trash themselves on that) but at least has that to fall back on, and they have Jeep which is hard to screw up. GM despite failing at supply chains the worst, does have the best crossover/suv lineup. Ford has really very little to show for itself if they slip on delivering as many EVs as they want to, they don't have a quality product to pivot to if they need to fill the gap. And frankly, the EVs they're planning to put out don't looks that great, silverado looks better than lightning, and the Mach E has been a bit of a dump.

I was going to respond to each individual point, but suffice it to say that your ASSUMPTIONS about EVs and their purchasers are wildly incorrect.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

What the hell cars have you had with bad compression at 200k miles?

I know plenty of cars, but then I'm an older guy. ?

I remember when 100K was the norm for engines and transmissions. I had a lot of high school buddies (I graduated in '77) who bought old muscle cars from the mid to late 60's and rebuilt the engines.

Jim

 

[2kwik4u]

I think the bigger pressure will be from cost, lol. People won't be buying new cars as often as they grow more and more expensive.

I dunno......I the engine dies, cost is a less relative issue right? Can't keep a car that doesn't run, even if the new one is more expensive than the old. I would wager there are fewer people willing to repower than just trade and walk away.

That's not to say that price hasn't kept more people in "OK" vehicles instead of buying new either. Surely there are some that would've upgraded trucks if they weren't so damn expensive. My dad being one of them. He drives an '02 Silverado that he bought brand new for $15k. V6, 2WD, reg cab, short bed. It has A/C, and I think a CD player. Cloth seats and a vinyl floor. It's finally showing enough age at 20 years old and only 135k miles, that he's ready to start looking to replace it. Wants to buy new, but can't stomach $35k+ to get into another base model Silverado. Most likely he'll go gently used "off-lease" in the $30k range, and get something really nice. Also a good chance it will be the last truck he ever buys (he'll be 66 this year).......That is all to say, sure, price does present a significant barrier to replacement.

I'm certain it's a combination of the two, and would wager it's hard to say which is the larger driving factor there. Both are important. Need more data.

Once we get into EV's this all changes a little bit. The price (at current standards) is a HUGE barrier, and I would say most EV's are to be considered luxury purchases. So the premise of a "repower" is even less attractive, but also far less likely. Screens, door handles, interior trim, suspension components will need replaced first. I would expect most people ignore those small things far longer than they care to admit as well........It's a big bowl of unkown variable soup for us. I bet the marketing teams at the major automakers have some good data though, and the CEO's aren't betting big without some financial justification behind it.

Interesting times for certain.

 

[Tyguy]

Whats a lifespan measurement for a battery in an EV?

I know in an industrial application it's usually rated in charge/discharge cycles. Typically in the low 1-2 thousand range. No idea if that is similar for an EV or not.

Clearly 1 charge a day for 10 years is like 3.6k cycles. I doubt you charge once a day though, so perhaps closer to 2k cycles if you charge every other day?

The measurement is miles and/or charge cycles. The soon-to-be previous gen Tesla cell, the 2170 going into the Model 3 and Model Y, is rated at 1,500 full charge cycles and 300,000 to 500,000 miles if stored/used/charged per recommendations. A partial charge doesn't equate to a full charge, for example it takes two half charges to equal a full charge in terms of battery life. And a "dead" battery isn't really dead, it's just dropped below 70% its original capacity.

Of course there will be outliers that don't go the distance due to manufacturing defects. It'll happen.

Those are the old Tesla batteries. The new 4680 are said to be double that.

And the Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries are even better. If you don't need power density, like you can live with less than 300 miles of range in good conditions, LiFePO4 are certainly compelling. 100% charge with no long-term harm, long life, almost impossible to catch on fire.

No idea about Samsung/LG, though.

 

[2kwik4u]

Another EValanache live stream at 3pm EST today

https://twitter.com/i/events/1478451294280900609?s=21

 

[BlkGS]

I dunno......I the engine dies, cost is a less relative issue right? Can't keep a car that doesn't run, even if the new one is more expensive than the old. I would wager there are fewer people willing to repower than just trade and walk away.

That's not to say that price hasn't kept more people in "OK" vehicles instead of buying new either. Surely there are some that would've upgraded trucks if they weren't so damn expensive. My dad being one of them. He drives an '02 Silverado that he bought brand new for $15k. V6, 2WD, reg cab, short bed. It has A/C, and I think a CD player. Cloth seats and a vinyl floor. It's finally showing enough age at 20 years old and only 135k miles, that he's ready to start looking to replace it. Wants to buy new, but can't stomach $35k+ to get into another base model Silverado. Most likely he'll go gently used "off-lease" in the $30k range, and get something really nice. Also a good chance it will be the last truck he ever buys (he'll be 66 this year).......That is all to say, sure, price does present a significant barrier to replacement.

I'm certain it's a combination of the two, and would wager it's hard to say which is the larger driving factor there. Both are important. Need more data.

Once we get into EV's this all changes a little bit. The price (at current standards) is a HUGE barrier, and I would say most EV's are to be considered luxury purchases. So the premise of a "repower" is even less attractive, but also far less likely. Screens, door handles, interior trim, suspension components will need replaced first. I would expect most people ignore those small things far longer than they care to admit as well........It's a big bowl of unkown variable soup for us. I bet the marketing teams at the major automakers have some good data though, and the CEO's aren't betting big without some financial justification behind it.

Interesting times for certain.

I don't think that when faced with a 3 to 10k bill to replace an engine, vs a 50 plus thousand dollar one for a new car, if the car is otherwise good, I suspect more people will fix than you'd think.

That said, most engine failures nowadays aren't out of the blue, and people who have the means typically trade out of them before the final deathblow. So the people who buy those nea end of life vehicles, are doing so because they're cheap and aren't likely to buy the much higher priced new car. They're more likely to buy another cheap EOL car.

Frankly, I think right now the main remover of cars from the road is collisions vs failures.

 

[2kwik4u]

I don't think that when faced with a 3 to 10k bill to replace an engine, vs a 50 plus thousand dollar one for a new car, if the car is otherwise good, I suspect more people will fix than you'd think.

I think you overestimate the analytical skills of John Q Public.

 

[BlkGS]

I think you overestimate the analytical skills of John Q Public.

Probably, but like I said above, I think the majority of people who end up with EOL vehicles are in one of those inescapable cycle type things. They never can get out of a shit ox because every cheap shit ox they can afford dies before they can dig themselves out. They're never going to spend 40 grand on a brand new car, because they're so far behind.

 

[2kwik4u]

Probably, but like I said above, I think the majority of people who end up with EOL vehicles are in one of those inescapable cycle type things. They never can get out of a shit ox because every cheap shit ox they can afford dies before they can dig themselves out. They're never going to spend 40 grand on a brand new car, because they're so far behind.

Same goes for people with never ending car loans (myself included) on $40k vehicles. I've had less than 24mo without a car payment since I was 18. Everything from $10k TBSS to a $45k Q7. Couple of new ones in there, mostly used, mostly changing every 3-5yrs. When my A4 gave up a transmission, $4k would've fixed that, but the car was only worth about $3.5k. I chose to trade into something else, despite the car being paid for because "Why spend more than it's worth on a repair, I'll never get that money back on resale". I would wager, my habits are closer to the "norm" than your analytical habits. Very very few people, myself included, can truly take emotion out of a large scale purchase.

Honestly, I should just lease my vehicles. I have a payment anyway, might as well be constantly driving something new eh?

 

[2kwik4u]

It's a virtual tour with a Product Specialist......new link incoming. Starts in 9min

Site Maintenance

www.chevrolet.com

 

[Tyguy]

I'm on it, 2kwik. Thanks for giving us all a heads-up.

 

[BlkGS]

Same goes for people with never ending car loans (myself included) on $40k vehicles. I've had less than 24mo without a car payment since I was 18. Everything from $10k TBSS to a $45k Q7. Couple of new ones in there, mostly used, mostly changing every 3-5yrs. When my A4 gave up a transmission, $4k would've fixed that, but the car was only worth about $3.5k. I chose to trade into something else, despite the car being paid for because "Why spend more than it's worth on a repair, I'll never get that money back on resale". I would wager, my habits are closer to the "norm" than your analytical habits. Very very few people, myself included, can truly take emotion out of a large scale purchase.

Honestly, I should just lease my vehicles. I have a payment anyway, might as well be constantly driving something new eh?

You're probably right, I've been there done that.. My Colorado engine was ticking and rather than swap to a 6.2 or even just fix myb5m3 or get a new 5.3, I convinced myself a larger vehicle for the kiddo and a 4x4 for towing was needed.

My first explorer needed an alternator (and some other upkeep) and I was young and dumb so I convinced myself I wanted a nicer car.

The one that really stings is my saturn. I had bought a series of other cars and kept it cuz it wasn't worth much, but when I bought my f150 I figured "I have no use for this" and traded it for like 2 grand. Had that truck for a year and got rid of it, and really wish I had kept it, I'd have driven that for several more years if I had.

You're probably right, in the moment, getting a new car does feel better, even if it's not the smart choice.

 

[2kwik4u]

I'm on it, 2kwik. Thanks for giving us all a heads-up.

I'm on as well. I see your questions .....I'm MikeD

little disappointed it's just a rendering

 

[Tyguy]

Nice!! Pretty cool that Chevy would interact with the public like this. We did learn there will be more trim lines, so good news there.

 

[Tyguy]

Good question about the cameras 2kwik. I think he was hiding some information but letting us know that it's coming

 

[2kwik4u]

Nice!! Pretty cool that Chevy would interact with the public like this. We did learn there will be more trim lines, so good news there.

Agreed. Lots of "we don't know yet" happening there. Which I get. They're still a year out from production at this point, make sense.

 

[2kwik4u]

Good question about the cameras 2kwik. I think he was hiding some information but letting us know that it's coming

OMG.....love the glass steel ball question. Well done!

 

[Tyguy]

Love how they handled that question.