Towing with Tesla Model X

[2kwik4u]

I'll be honest, I didn't read all that. I'd point out that a full size truck is much bigger inside than a Rivian. You're also comparing a lifted off road truck to one that is designed with efficiency in mind somewhat. If you lift and put big mud tires on the Rivian, efficiency goes down. Also, holy crap you drove a lot of miles, lol.

That said, I was speaking more about the automakers money being thrown in a hole, not consumers. Certainly they're more cost effective for some people. And while there a lot of pre-orders, 500 to 1000 bucks to maybe be able to flip one and/or hope you can pay for it in a few years is very different from actually selling a vehicle. Think of how many people are out there with multiple reservations for multiple vehicles, etc. I don't put a ton of faith in those kinds of reservations.

My thought was more that the automakers are spending a Ton of money, and it does appear likely that a lot of the reservations for these EVs are coming from the same sources. I've heard of independent dealers resvering a ton of them to resell, people reserving tons to sell their spots, etc. I'd hope the automakers would have thought this through, but you know, I also recognize that sometimes big corporations make choices based on making their stock look valuable to a financial industry that's out of touch vs what actual consumers will buy. For reference, look at automaker financial performance when their customer loyalty and satisfaction is at an all time low.

You make some valid points.

I do drive a lot. I'm not a fan, but it's where I'm at. Bought the Q7 a year ago with 40k miles on it. Has 60.5k on it now

The conversion from reservation to sale in this market doesn't have a lot of known data outside of Tesla. Arguably Tesla is a data/tech company masquerading as a car company, so not sure how much we can count those. Other popular cars have a pretty good conversion percentage though. Think high end or rare vehicles. Wait lists for those have been common for years, and are likewise enthusiast driven. I would consider EV's to be enthusiast driven at this point as well as they aren't quite mainstream yet.

Stock prices to cater to wall street isn't quite accurate either. Especially in big markets like automotive. They cater to shareholders, and shareholders look at valuations, market capitalization, and E/R ratios. Those are driven less by wall street and more by business. Sure, there are tons of prospectors out there driving the hype, but the CEO's answer to the board before they answer to prospectors. Company makes a big bet and loses, heads role. I promise there aren't enough golden parachutes to make CEO's purposefully bomb a company at that level.

 

[GTBRMC]

I could be wrong, but I believe all battery packs are 100% sealed very tightly. The 4XE can drive in 30" of water so I don't think it's a concern. (though battery pack is higher up than say a Tesla)

If they can all handle driving in 30” of water, yeah, that would erase all those concerns. Other than maybe flooded footwells.

 

[BlkGS]

You make some valid points.

I do drive a lot. I'm not a fan, but it's where I'm at. Bought the Q7 a year ago with 40k miles on it. Has 60.5k on it now

The conversion from reservation to sale in this market doesn't have a lot of known data outside of Tesla. Arguably Tesla is a data/tech company masquerading as a car company, so not sure how much we can count those. Other popular cars have a pretty good conversion percentage though. Think high end or rare vehicles. Wait lists for those have been common for years, and are likewise enthusiast driven. I would consider EV's to be enthusiast driven at this point as well as they aren't quite mainstream yet.

Stock prices to cater to wall street isn't quite accurate either. Especially in big markets like automotive. They cater to shareholders, and shareholders look at valuations, market capitalization, and E/R ratios. Those are driven less by wall street and more by business. Sure, there are tons of prospectors out there driving the hype, but the CEO's answer to the board before they answer to prospectors. Company makes a big bet and loses, heads role. I promise there aren't enough golden parachutes to make CEO's purposefully bomb a company at that level.

I think there's a big difference in resver 1 of 500 911 GT3 RS for a year and 50k plus EVs from every company. Even if you look at something mainstream like the C8 Corvette, early deliveries had an insanely high resale rate, anecdotally because nobody captures data that way.

I think you put a lot more faith in companies acting intelligently than I do. I see them all spouting rhetoric at "revitalizing themselves as tech companies" and crap like that. They see Tesla and have wet dreams about the stock options if they were valued like that. They lust after the conversions of a goods as services model. They neglect that these are things that make customers hate companies.

I think regulations are too fickle to rely on. We live in the tit for tat Era, where day 1 is undoing everything the last guy did via executive order. I could see a day 1 shift in the future that ends EV subsidies, adds a large SE tax on EVs, strips CARB of its power, and rolls back CAFE requirements. A populist leader that links EVs to "the rich" could wipe out or at least kneecap the market in hours.

I think investing in electrification, hybrids, PHEVs, online electric elements, etc is a FAR smarter choice than investing in battery cars.

Our own resident EV zealot admits that a plug in hybrid is the better solution, lol.

 

[2kwik4u]

No doubt, your glasses are far less rose colored than mine.

 

[gkallevig]

Math doesn't really support that hypothesis.

Just priced a gently used AT4 with the 3.0L Duramax. It's listed at $58.9k. Link to that truck
Priced a Rivian at $81.2k (I can't figure out how to link the configuration).
For all intents and purposes, these are equitable trucks in terms of capability.
The only glaring difference is range on a fillup. 600+miles on the expressway for the AT4, 300-ish in the Rivian. Twice as many stops (and an extra hour or two clock time on the trip) on the road trips most take only a few times a year.

Some assumptions:
15k mi/yr (I drive closer to 19k mi/year, but everyone varies a bit)
I charge the Rivian at home at $0.15/Kwh (My last bill was actually $0.125/kWh)
Diesel is $5.15/gal at the pump
AT4 gets 23mpg (closer to 17mpg towing)
Rivian uses 400Wh/mi (closer to 800Wh/mi while towing)
$7,500 tax credit is still available (We can argue the validity of this subsidy forever, but it exists, and we're taking advantage of it)

Total cost, just looking at fuel and purchase price is $2,460 LESS for the Rivian over a life span of 105k miles and 7 years. The savings become more pronounced (or breakeven happens sooner) if we look for a new AT4, OR we get a gas engine, or BOTH. If you want to add maintenance in there, we can add some $/mi figures if you like. It'll be easy to add to the sheet, but I think will only serve to strengthen the EV's position financially.

Here's the math:
View attachment 173458

In general.....IMO, these numbers are with the margin of error in use cases between people. It'll be a win for some and a loss for others. In general though, we're really close (9% subsidy on total purchase price) to having the market drive these prices. I don't know the exact numbers, but I'm guessing that the $7.5k tax credit for EV purchase is less than the total money invested to subsidize E85 (Which was $4.05/gal at the pump this morning). So, again, we can argue the validity of that subsidy until we're blue in the face, but it exists so we should plan on using it.

Further, and this is all opinion on my part, I think the market is speaking loudly when there are waitlists for EV's. Someone is going to capitalize on them, and the market will like continue to explode for several years at this level. Now, I think we can draw a corollary with iPads in education. They were a HUGE fad a few years back, and lauded heavily as the "next big thing" in education for kids. Take a look at most schools now, and they've moved away from iPads, HOWEVER, digital learning still exists heavily and is mostly propped up with lower cost, more financially efficient tools like Chromebooks. I can see a similar arc happening here. We get the top performers out in the market, find the good/bad/ugly about them, then another manufacturer will come along and find the sweet spot of value, and that will become more of the standard.

No matter which way you slice it, it's an interesting time for transportation!!

I think everything you said is pretty correct. One thing to note is taxes. Because the market share of EV's is so small, the federal government can offer that 7500 credit to incentivize people to 'go green' (debatable for another time). However, if the market actually gets to a point that EV's didn't need incentive from the government for people to choose them, that incentive goes away. The other tax is state tax. Here in MN, we have taxes of $.285/gal. The fed gas tax is $.184/gal. Lets say the world transitions to EV's overnight....you think the government is gonna waive those taxes? Not a chance. Those kwh's are gonna remain priced where they are? Nope. The government will get its taxes one way or the other. So in consideration of no gas tax, and cheap kwh, and 7500 tax credit, i think right now is the absolute best it gets for EV ownership (financially speaking).

 

[gkallevig]

Not sure when he posted that, but did you expect something drastic in ~18 months? IIRC max range of cars has gone up over 100 miles since then.

Posted Oct 2019. so 29 months. he's the one who expected faster change, I never specified a timeline.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

I'm not really sure the federal tax credit is an incentive focused on the consumer, but rather on the manufacturer to build this types of vehicles. This is why we see a phase out of the tax credit as the manufacturer exceeds certain production levels, like Tesla. I believe the proposed tax credit in the BBB bill would apply to all EV's, and may not be limited to just cars and trucks. There is talk about it extending to vehicles such as electric bikes.

Personally, I don't think its the best time to purchase an EV for our (wife and I) use, as we are waiting for more (smaller and cheaper) vehicles to come on the market. We would really like a compact SUV, priced in the 40's.

Jim

 

[thefortunes]

I think everything you said is pretty correct. One thing to note is taxes. Because the market share of EV's is so small, the federal government can offer that 7500 credit to incentivize people to 'go green' (debatable for another time). However, if the market actually gets to a point that EV's didn't need incentive from the government for people to choose them, that incentive goes away. The other tax is state tax. Here in MN, we have taxes of $.285/gal. The fed gas tax is $.184/gal. Lets say the world transitions to EV's overnight....you think the government is gonna waive those taxes? Not a chance. Those kwh's are gonna remain priced where they are? Nope. The government will get its taxes one way or the other. So in consideration of no gas tax, and cheap kwh, and 7500 tax credit, i think right now is the absolute best it gets for EV ownership (financially speaking).

1) The $7500 fed credit was not given on 75% of the EV sales in 2021 (all Tesla sales). Not hurting their demand one bit.

2) Around 20 states (currently - including your Minnesota) have annual fee on EVs to cover the lost gas tax revenue. The states aren't "waiving" those taxes. Oh, and you do realize there is already tax on electricity so EV drivers are, in effect, being "taxed" twice?

 

[tabbibus]

1) The $7500 fed credit was not given on 75% of the EV sales in 2021 (all Tesla sales). Not hurting their demand one bit.

2) Around 20 states (currently - including your Minnesota) have annual fee on EVs to cover the lost gas tax revenue. The states aren't "waiving" those taxes. Oh, and you do realize there is already tax on electricity so EV drivers are, in effect, being "taxed" twice?

My yearly registration fee in GA is many times higher for my EV than my ICE vehicles. I totally feel that whole taxed twice thing

 

[BlkGS]

My yearly registration fee in GA is many times higher for my EV than my ICE vehicles. I totally feel that whole taxed twice thing

I mean, technically you get taxed 3 times on everything.

First time as you earn income, second time as you spend money, and third time as you use it.

 

[tabbibus]

I mean, technically you get taxed 3 times on everything.

First time as you earn income, second time as you spend money, and third time as you use it.

Taxception

 

[BlkGS]

Taxception

They'll probably make Inheritance taxes a bigger thing going forward, so you'll get taxed when you die and that'll be 4th tax, lol.

 

[2kwik4u]

Interesting experiment in weight versus aero in towing.

1.09mi/kWh (917W/mi) with a heavy but small weight.
0.77mi/kWh (1,298W/mi) with a light weight by big aero block.

41.5% increase because of poor aero!

Link to Inside EVs Article

Not really groundbreaking for anyone that has towed a Pontoon versus a Bowrider. Pointy boat front is easier than flat boat front. Neat to see it quantified though!

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

Brought home the off-road toys last night. LOL, I think a brick would be more aerodynamic than these, especially with the sideways loading. ?



Got 17.5 mpg on the 100 mile trip over. Got 12.5 mpg on the trip home with the 3,800 lb trailer/toys load. Interesting, the percent change not much different than the EV's noted above.

Jim

 

[Nakk]

just randomly reading some threads on here...i'd say we're in about the same spot today as when you posted, no? No better energy density, still tough to find a charge station, towing still brutally tough with electric due to energy consumption... gas got expensive but not for the reasons you stated lol.

Posted Oct 2019. so 29 months. he's the one who expected faster change, I never specified a timeline.

Hmm. Let's see... Yes, energy density is about to get significantly better as the Tesla 4680 cell nears production. Not even a little bit tough to find a charging station. It's really easy in fact. Towing is still an ICE domain, which is why I still have my K1500 Blazer. OTH, Electric trucks are right around the corner; I guess you don't follow the news much? Yep, gas got expensive as was obvious it would, the scenario I listed will take years to develop. Did you have a hard time understanding that? So you're batting 25% in the first quote--the 25% of your post that agreed with my post. In the second quote you imply that my timeline was off, that I expected faster change. So that's kind of not a true statement, is it? (To put it politely.) I said "sooner than we think," and that appears to be playing out. Please don't put words in my mouth. If you can't refute my arguments, don't make shit up.

In October 2019 I had three ICE vehicles. I now have two EVs and my '92 Blazer. In the last month and a half since I got home from Mexico I've spent $19 to drive both of the two EVs. That's total, not each. I've driven a lot, BTW. My EVs are faster--by far--than almost every ICE vehicle on the road. Almost certainly faster than whatever you're driving. My Model Y SUV can beat a Porsche 911 around a race track, and I can haul all of my gear to the river or coast--and I can haul lumber home from Lowes. They're not only more fun to drive than an ICE car, they're easier to drive as well. My maintenance costs for both EVs has been zero. When I road trip my EV is almost always done charging before I'm ready to hit the road again. I spend zero time finding a gas station or fueling up at home. No more long sits in line at the Costco gas station. No more planning time to fuel up when I need to go somewhere. My car is always full when I leave home. My cars are quiet. When I roll out of the driveway for an early trip, I don't disturb my neighbor who needs his sleep before work. On a blistering hot day my car is already cool inside when I get to it after a long day at the river. I'll tell you what, getting into a car that's 62 degrees inside after hauling gear up the ramp in 116 degree weather was worth having an EV all by itself. And my buddies who were driving ICE 4x4s all sat in my car for quite a while waiting for their trucks to cool off, LOL. Not a single EV critic in the bunch anymore. After a freezing cold day at the mountain my car is already toasty warm when I get to it. If someone swerves into my lane, my car will take evasive action if I'm too slow. My car will drive for me when I find it convenient. It will stop at stop signs and traffic lights, and it will go after stopping or after the light turns green. It will make the turns required to keep me on course. It is by far the best on-road snow car I've ever driven. I have driven right by stuck Suburus and 4x4s. The only time a conventional 4x4 is as good is if the snow is too deep for my 8" of ground clearance. In short, after owning EVs for two years I can't imagine going back to driving an ICE vehicle. It would be like going back to a horse and buggy. EVs are just plain better, massively better, in almost every way imaginable. Towing a boat? EVs aren't there yet. That's just around the corner though.

I'm a gear head. I know more about cars than most. I've done everything from engine swaps to resto-mods. I've rebuilt my '92 Blazer which I bought new. It has a six speed auto, a 3/4 ton rear end and an L94 motor--to list just a few of the modifications I've done. (The L94 is the truck version of the LS3.) I did all of the work myself. I've owned Corvettes, BMWs, Camaros, and others. So I know just a little bit about cars. And I know when times change too. The times, they are a changing. Whether or not you have figured that out yet or want them to.

 

[gkallevig]

Hmm. Let's see... Yes, energy density is about to get significantly better as the Tesla 4680 cell nears production. Not even a little bit tough to find a charging station. It's really easy in fact. Towing is still an ICE domain, which is why I still have my K1500 Blazer. OTH, Electric trucks are right around the corner; I guess you don't follow the news much? Yep, gas got expensive as was obvious it would, the scenario I listed will take years to develop. Did you have a hard time understanding that? So you're batting 25% in the first quote--the 25% of your post that agreed with my post. In the second quote you imply that my timeline was off, that I expected faster change. So that's kind of not a true statement, is it? (To put it politely.) I said "sooner than we think," and that appears to be playing out. Please don't put words in my mouth. If you can't refute my arguments, don't make shit up.

In October 2019 I had three ICE vehicles. I now have two EVs and my '92 Blazer. In the last month and a half since I got home from Mexico I've spent $19 to drive both of the two EVs. That's total, not each. I've driven a lot, BTW. My EVs are faster--by far--than almost every ICE vehicle on the road. Almost certainly faster than whatever you're driving. My Model Y SUV can beat a Porsche 911 around a race track, and I can haul all of my gear to the river or coast--and I can haul lumber home from Lowes. They're not only more fun to drive than an ICE car, they're easier to drive as well. My maintenance costs for both EVs has been zero. When I road trip my EV is almost always done charging before I'm ready to hit the road again. I spend zero time finding a gas station or fueling up at home. No more long sits in line at the Costco gas station. No more planning time to fuel up when I need to go somewhere. My car is always full when I leave home. My cars are quiet. When I roll out of the driveway for an early trip, I don't disturb my neighbor who needs his sleep before work. On a blistering hot day my car is already cool inside when I get to it after a long day at the river. I'll tell you what, getting into a car that's 62 degrees inside after hauling gear up the ramp in 116 degree weather was worth having an EV all by itself. And my buddies who were driving ICE 4x4s all sat in my car for quite a while waiting for their trucks to cool off, LOL. Not a single EV critic in the bunch anymore. After a freezing cold day at the mountain my car is already toasty warm when I get to it. If someone swerves into my lane, my car will take evasive action if I'm too slow. My car will drive for me when I find it convenient. It will stop at stop signs and traffic lights, and it will go after stopping or after the light turns green. It will make the turns required to keep me on course. It is by far the best on-road snow car I've ever driven. I have driven right by stuck Suburus and 4x4s. The only time a conventional 4x4 is as good is if the snow is too deep for my 8" of ground clearance. In short, after owning EVs for two years I can't imagine going back to driving an ICE vehicle. It would be like going back to a horse and buggy. EVs are just plain better, massively better, in almost every way imaginable. Towing a boat? EVs aren't there yet. That's just around the corner though.

I'm a gear head. I know more about cars than most. I've done everything from engine swaps to resto-mods. I've rebuilt my '92 Blazer which I bought new. It has a six speed auto, a 3/4 ton rear end and an L94 motor--to list just a few of the modifications I've done. (The L94 is the truck version of the LS3.) I did all of the work myself. I've owned Corvettes, BMWs, Camaros, and others. So I know just a little bit about cars. And I know when times change too. The times, they are a changing. Whether or not you have figured that out yet or want them to.

You got wayyyyy too angry over this. I didn't read your entire response, didn't care to. I wasn't even trying to make a pissy comment towards you, just noting that state of EV's now vs then (2019). Get a grip guy. btw, the push for electric cars is 99% driven by CAFE requirements, anyone who's done any reading at all knows that. Electric cars have there merits, its fine that you like them, but there's not some massive market demand pushing them.

 

[Nakk]

You got wayyyyy too angry over this. I didn't read your entire response, didn't care to. I wasn't even trying to make a pissy comment towards you, just noting that state of EV's now vs then (2019). Get a grip guy. btw, the push for electric cars is 99% driven by CAFE requirements, anyone who's done any reading at all knows that. Electric cars have there merits, its fine that you like them, but there's not some massive market demand pushing them.

ROFL. Seriously, you think I'm angry? OK then. Yes, I was only minimally polite since you "bent the truth in order to mischaracterize my post." (Again trying to be polite as opposed to calling it what it was.) Hopefully, you won't take this response as angry, it's just a listing of facts rebutting your post--which contained zero facts. I get it that you didn't read my entire post--it's hard for some people to read something that proves them wrong. Those people prefer their own comfortable fantasy to the real world.

1. The state of EVs. You claim it's the same, it's not. Almost every major auto maker is scrambling to get caught up with Tesla as their market for ICE vehicles dries up. EV range has risen significantly and rather large technological improvements have been made which are about to come into production. Anyone who's done any reading at all knows that.

2. You wrote "Get a grip guy. btw, the push for electric cars is 99% driven by CAFE requirements, anyone who's done any reading at all knows that." LOL, reading what? A conspiracy website? Since 2019 Tesla has grown into the most valuable automaker in the world. No, let me rephrase that. Tesla has grown so that it is more valuable than every other automaker in the world--put together. Yeah, sure, CAFE did that, LOL. Tesla has built three new massive plants since then, and production is far in excess of what it was in 2019. Even with that, Tesla is already sold out for ALL of 2022. Even though Teslas are more expensive than ICE cars, the demand far outstrips Tesla's ability to make them. BTW, you do realize there are zero federal incentives to buy a Tesla, right? See, when people want to buy a car--even though it is high priced--and order them in such high numbers, that means there is high demand for that car. I mean we are literally talking about the definition for the word "demand." Someone does indeed need to "get a grip." LOL.

On a related subject, I feel that all tax credits for EV purchases should end. (BTW, I got no government incentive to buy my Tesla Model Y, quite the opposite. I pay more in taxes owning an EV than I did with ICE vehicles.) Tesla has proven that no such credit is needed to drive EV sales. The EV credit as it stands now and the new credit proposed by the party in power are simply ways to bail out legacy automakers who failed to understand the demand for EVs in time. Automakers are scrambling to recover from this, and need money from the federal government or some will go out of business. There is one automaker that refuses to bribe--oops I mean give campaign contributions to--politicians, Tesla. And those same politicians who claim they are trying to save the environment are doing everything they can to hurt Tesla while helping their competition. The president won't even say the word "Tesla" when talking about EVs. He claims GM is the EV leader--a company that made 300 EVs last quarter compared to Tesla's over 300,000. The government's push for EVs has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change or the environment--it has to do with money paid to politicians. It is hard to dispute the rampant corruption of the party in power given the facts available, but that's a different subject.

 

[gkallevig]

ROFL. Seriously, you think I'm angry? OK then. Yes, I was only minimally polite since you "bent the truth in order to mischaracterize my post." (Again trying to be polite as opposed to calling it what it was.) Hopefully, you won't take this response as angry, it's just a listing of facts rebutting your post--which contained zero facts. I get it that you didn't read my entire post--it's hard for some people to read something that proves them wrong. Those people prefer their own comfortable fantasy to the real world.

1. The state of EVs. You claim it's the same, it's not. Almost every major auto maker is scrambling to get caught up with Tesla as their market for ICE vehicles dries up. EV range has risen significantly and rather large technological improvements have been made which are about to come into production. Anyone who's done any reading at all knows that.

2. You wrote "Get a grip guy. btw, the push for electric cars is 99% driven by CAFE requirements, anyone who's done any reading at all knows that." LOL, reading what? A conspiracy website? Since 2019 Tesla has grown into the most valuable automaker in the world. No, let me rephrase that. Tesla has grown so that it is more valuable than every other automaker in the world--put together. Yeah, sure, CAFE did that, LOL. Tesla has built three new massive plants since then, and production is far in excess of what it was in 2019. Even with that, Tesla is already sold out for ALL of 2022. Even though Teslas are more expensive than ICE cars, the demand far outstrips Tesla's ability to make them. BTW, you do realize there are zero federal incentives to buy a Tesla, right? See, when people want to buy a car--even though it is high priced--and order them in such high numbers, that means there is high demand for that car. I mean we are literally talking about the definition for the word "demand." Someone does indeed need to "get a grip." LOL.

On a related subject, I feel that all tax credits for EV purchases should end. (BTW, I got no government incentive to buy my Tesla Model Y, quite the opposite. I pay more in taxes owning an EV than I did with ICE vehicles.) Tesla has proven that no such credit is needed to drive EV sales. The EV credit as it stands now and the new credit proposed by the party in power are simply ways to bail out legacy automakers who failed to understand the demand for EVs in time. Automakers are scrambling to recover from this, and need money from the federal government or some will go out of business. There is one automaker that refuses to bribe--oops I mean give campaign contributions to--politicians, Tesla. And those same politicians who claim they are trying to save the environment are doing everything they can to hurt Tesla while helping their competition. The president won't even say the word "Tesla" when talking about EVs. He claims GM is the EV leader--a company that made 300 EVs last quarter compared to Tesla's over 300,000. The government's push for EVs has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change or the environment--it has to do with money paid to politicians. It is hard to dispute the rampant corruption of the party in power given the facts available, but that's a different subject.

Again, you spent all that time writing a reply that I won't take the time to read...genius.

 

[Nakk]

Again, you spent all that time writing a reply that I won't take the time to read...genius.

LOL, no worries, given your other posts I never really thought you read much anyways. Reading is hard.

 

[gkallevig]

LOL, no worries, given your other posts I never really thought you read much anyways. Reading is hard.

Better to read nothing, than read the ramblings of a fool.