Math doesn't really support that hypothesis.
Just priced a gently used AT4 with the 3.0L Duramax. It's listed at $58.9k.
Link to that truck
Priced a Rivian at $81.2k (I can't figure out how to link the configuration).
For all intents and purposes, these are equitable trucks in terms of capability.
The only glaring difference is range on a fillup. 600+miles on the expressway for the AT4, 300-ish in the Rivian. Twice as many stops (and an extra hour or two clock time on the trip) on the road trips most take only a few times a year.
Some assumptions:
15k mi/yr (I drive closer to 19k mi/year, but everyone varies a bit)
I charge the Rivian at home at $0.15/Kwh (My last bill was actually $0.125/kWh)
Diesel is $5.15/gal at the pump
AT4 gets 23mpg (closer to 17mpg towing)
Rivian uses 400Wh/mi (closer to 800Wh/mi while towing)
$7,500 tax credit is still available (We can argue the validity of this subsidy forever, but it exists, and we're taking advantage of it)
Total cost, just looking at fuel and purchase price is $2,460
LESS for the Rivian over a life span of 105k miles and 7 years. The savings become more pronounced (or breakeven happens sooner) if we look for a new AT4, OR we get a gas engine, or BOTH. If you want to add maintenance in there, we can add some $/mi figures if you like. It'll be easy to add to the sheet, but I think will only serve to strengthen the EV's position financially.
Here's the math:
View attachment 173458
In general.....IMO, these numbers are with the margin of error in use cases between people. It'll be a win for some and a loss for others. In general though, we're really close (9% subsidy on total purchase price) to having the market drive these prices. I don't know the exact numbers, but I'm guessing that the $7.5k tax credit for EV purchase is less than the total money invested to subsidize E85 (Which was $4.05/gal at the pump this morning). So, again, we can argue the validity of that subsidy until we're blue in the face, but it exists so we should plan on using it.
Further, and this is all opinion on my part, I think the market is speaking loudly when there are waitlists for EV's. Someone is going to capitalize on them, and the market will like continue to explode for several years at this level. Now, I think we can draw a corollary with iPads in education. They were a HUGE fad a few years back, and lauded heavily as the "next big thing" in education for kids. Take a look at most schools now, and they've moved away from iPads, HOWEVER, digital learning still exists heavily and is mostly propped up with lower cost, more financially efficient tools like Chromebooks. I can see a similar arc happening here. We get the top performers out in the market, find the good/bad/ugly about them, then another manufacturer will come along and find the sweet spot of value, and that will become more of the standard.
No matter which way you slice it, it's an interesting time for transportation!!