High car payment? No problem…

[2kwik4u]

Looks like someone is making the evidence to present to the wife lol

She calls this "husband math"......it's the same premise as when she comes home and says "Look at all the money I saved in Kohls Cash" while holding a receipt with $250 charged to the credit card

 

[I_squared_r]

She calls this "husband math"......it's the same premise as when she comes home and says "Look at all the money I saved in Kohls Cash" while holding a receipt with $250 charged to the credit card

Is that the same premise as "luxury hand bags are a good investment"?

 

[BlkGS]

You can literally go buy a lightning off the lot easily now. Our dealer had 4 and were expecting to have even more of them. Expensive, and they're not practical as trucks that tow. May as well buy a Santa Cruz or Ridgeline for that kinda use...

 

[2kwik4u]

https://electrek.co/2023/03/30/ford-reopens-f-150-lightning-orders-as-production-and-prices-ramp-up/

 

[2kwik4u]

You can literally go buy a lightning off the lot easily now. Our dealer had 4 and were expecting to have even more of them. Expensive, and they're not practical as trucks that tow. May as well buy a Santa Cruz or Ridgeline for that kinda use...

Same. There are 2-3 on each dealer lot near me. Might not be the option package you want, but they're somewhat "in stock" at this point. Seeing more and more of them around as well.

 

[2kwik4u]

Is that the same premise as "luxury hand bags are a good investment"?

Yeap. Same premise.

I thought I wanted to go electric, but it still doesn't quite get me where I need to go in terms of range while towing. Then there's a $20k+ premium over any other replacement. Juice isn't quite worth the squeeze just yet. Even looking at something like a used eTron that are approaching reasonable and can tow the 190.

 

[I_squared_r]

I don't know how I feel about the electric trucks. The range sucks when it's towing so it's not very practical. I was surprised to see 1 here in Colombia yesterday and idk, there's some charging stations here, but I've never seen a charging station outside the city. Seems kind of useless.

 

[BlkGS]

Yeap. Same premise.

I thought I wanted to go electric, but it still doesn't quite get me where I need to go in terms of range while towing. Then there's a $20k+ premium over any other replacement. Juice isn't quite worth the squeeze just yet. Even looking at something like a used eTron that are approaching reasonable and can tow the 190.

Wait u til you factor in resale. Resale on EVs SUUUUCKS. It could be that the main ones are teslas and they're kinda shitty built, it could be just that they're all expensive, or.it could be that the secondhand market doesn't trust batteries to last. But if you start talking about total cost to own... It gets ugly fast.

To be honest, I think the fact that all the automakers are all trying to push out EVs may end up being the best shot at making it, as the automakers will have to discount them heavily to sell them in an increasingly crowded market with limited buyers. Price slashes might create some extra demand, I think if the EV were to have price parity with the gas vehicle, they'd see a lot of converts from people who would see it as a cost savings due to fuel and not recognize the residual hit on the longer term.

Then again, the automakers may be in upside down on these cars, be greedy like they are right now, etc and not drop prices and just choose to die on this hill. Seems equally likely these days.

 

[HangOutdoors]

Buying a used E vehicle when it needs a battery in the near future is going to be painful. Especially those whom get taken advantage of and are not in the know.

Price the electrics under their gas counter parts is what I think needs to happen. The adoption would be huge.

 

[BlkGS]

Buying a used E vehicle when it needs a battery in the near future is going to be painful. Especially those whom get taken advantage of and are not in the know.

Price the electrics under their gas counter parts is what I think needs to happen. The adoption would be huge.

I don't think it's feasible from a materials standpoint alone, let alone r&d costs. Admittedly, this isn't my engineering field, but I suspect the costs of lithium will prevent them from an actual price parity or advantage over ICE unless it's due to almost entirely inflating the price of ICEs.

 

[2kwik4u]

@BlkGS @HangOutdoors
On the note about battery replacement and residual value......I read an article the other day that said, currently, less than 5% of EV's have had a battery replaced. They noted it was a young industry and not much data, however I'm really curious to see how this pans out in the coming decade or so when we do get good data. My suspicion is that battery replacement now is like engine replacement in the 60's. Get 100k miles from an engine then was a major ordeal, now they're 250k+ for most without issue. Batteries will, in my best guess, likely follow the same technology arc. They're short term items up front (like a Nissan Leaf), and will go much longer as they mature (like the Tesla 85kWh pack). This leads to the same problem Hyundai and Kia have. They had shit quality for awhile, and it took decades for them to be recognized and decent automakers. With many of the same misconceptions persisting today. Dodge trucks had to spin off a whole new brand to make it happen. EV's are going to have to climb the same "Battery packs are expensive to replace" hill of bad perception. The fact is, like combustion engines, you're likely to never have to replace the battery in your car with current tech.

As for resale. They're almost all luxury vehicles at this point, and until there is mainstream take rates you have to treat them as luxuries. Any new Audi/Mercedes/BMW will depreciate as fast, or faster than most EV's. Interestingly enough, the EV models of those manufacturers depreciate LESS than their ICE counterparts, at least as best I can tell from anecdotal searching on my part. I would love to see some data on what the residual value looks like over 4, 7, and 10 years for EV ownership. I suspect it will have a larger standard deviation than ICE powered cars, but will trend very closely in overall depreciation rate.

 

[2kwik4u]

I don't think it's feasible from a materials standpoint alone, let alone r&d costs. Admittedly, this isn't my engineering field, but I suspect the costs of lithium will prevent them from an actual price parity or advantage over ICE unless it's due to almost entirely inflating the price of ICEs.

I disagree. We'll get there. R&D costs and material costs aren't the issue. It's take rate, production capacity, and public perception that will have to change to get to the economies of scale needed to bring the price down.

In terms of material, we're in a state of using pure "new" lithium at the moment. Freshly mined and refined resources. Recyclers and refiners are coming online quickly, and will help reduce the burden of new pure product to be produced. I have the thermal processing equipment for two recycling startups on my desk for engineering review now. Both are slated to be in production early 2024 with decent throughput rates.

 

[BlkGS]

@BlkGS @HangOutdoors
On the note about battery replacement and residual value......I read an article the other day that said, currently, less than 5% of EV's have had a battery replaced. They noted it was a young industry and not much data, however I'm really curious to see how this pans out in the coming decade or so when we do get good data. My suspicion is that battery replacement now is like engine replacement in the 60's. Get 100k miles from an engine then was a major ordeal, now they're 250k+ for most without issue. Batteries will, in my best guess, likely follow the same technology arc. They're short term items up front (like a Nissan Leaf), and will go much longer as they mature (like the Tesla 85kWh pack). This leads to the same problem Hyundai and Kia have. They had shit quality for awhile, and it took decades for them to be recognized and decent automakers. With many of the same misconceptions persisting today. Dodge trucks had to spin off a whole new brand to make it happen. EV's are going to have to climb the same "Battery packs are expensive to replace" hill of bad perception. The fact is, like combustion engines, you're likely to never have to replace the battery in your car with current tech.

As for resale. They're almost all luxury vehicles at this point, and until there is mainstream take rates you have to treat them as luxuries. Any new Audi/Mercedes/BMW will depreciate as fast, or faster than most EV's. Interestingly enough, the EV models of those manufacturers depreciate LESS than their ICE counterparts, at least as best I can tell from anecdotal searching on my part. I would love to see some data on what the residual value looks like over 4, 7, and 10 years for EV ownership. I suspect it will have a larger standard deviation than ICE powered cars, but will trend very closely in overall depreciation rate.

I dunno. Even the resale for Teslas is shit. If you compare one to the rest of the midsize market, theyre terrible. That's likely partially due to them having a luxury car price tag but basic car quality.

It'll be interesting to see how the ICE vs EV reslae works out now that BMW, mercedes and a few others are building near copies of ice and EV vehicles. Lightning is likely going to be the real barometer here, and I think it's HIGHLY improbable that it has better resale than it's gas equivalent.

 

[BlkGS]

I disagree. We'll get there. R&D costs and material costs aren't the issue. It's take rate, production capacity, and public perception that will have to change to get to the economies of scale needed to bring the price down.

In terms of material, we're in a state of using pure "new" lithium at the moment. Freshly mined and refined resources. Recyclers and refiners are coming online quickly, and will help reduce the burden of new pure product to be produced. I have the thermal processing equipment for two recycling startups on my desk for engineering review now. Both are slated to be in production early 2024 with decent throughput rates.

Maybe, they say that lithium costs keep skyrocketing, and the demand is only increasing. I don't know how effective lithium recycling will be. It could be like plastic where the cost and quality outweigh the value and it doesn't really financially work. Or it could be like catalytic converters, and people will start drilling holes in batteries to siphon out that sweet lithium juice (joking - I know that's not how it works).

I do know that uses for lithium batteries are only increasing, cellphones, computers, small devices, etc. It sounds like there's a new breakthrough non lithium battery designed every week now. You don't see many of them hitting the streets though.

All of this said, thinking about the premise of this thread in general, I think the other issue is that vehicles are too expensive in general right now. I see videos all the time of these dealerships with massive inventory, and nobody is buying. The automakers aren't giving them incentives to sell them, and are instead trying to cut output to preserve margins. It won't work. There's plenty of buyers like me literally sitting on the sidelines, waiting to buy, until the incentives and pricing come down. I can wait a lot longer to buy than they can to sell.

 

[HangOutdoors]

@BlkGS Totally right there with you. I would be in the market for another vehicle, but I am not going to purchase at the prices they are asking.

 

[TimW451]

Well I got the email finally today. Probably going to pass.

View attachment 196673

Me too. I’m out. I got my deposit back earlier this month. It would be ~$10k more in real cost for what I would’ve bought and $0 rebate. Doesn’t make sense to trade in the Ram for a Lightning. I’m considering a Wrangler 4xe. I will need to buy something in the next 12 months. My daughter will have her license this Fall. Whatever I buy it will be used, an EV, or a hybrid. No trade-in.

 

[tabbibus]

I dunno. Even the resale for Teslas is shit. If you compare one to the rest of the midsize market, theyre terrible. That's likely partially due to them having a luxury car price tag but basic car quality.

It'll be interesting to see how the ICE vs EV reslae works out now that BMW, mercedes and a few others are building near copies of ice and EV vehicles. Lightning is likely going to be the real barometer here, and I think it's HIGHLY improbable that it has better resale than it's gas equivalent.

Did prices take a tumble? Actually, they probably did after the most recent drastic price cut on new teslas. Before the cut, when I was replacing my dead Model S, I looked at used Teslas and prices were almost the same as new vehicles.

 

[2kwik4u]

I dunno. Even the resale for Teslas is shit. If you compare one to the rest of the midsize market, theyre terrible. That's likely partially due to them having a luxury car price tag but basic car quality.

It'll be interesting to see how the ICE vs EV reslae works out now that BMW, mercedes and a few others are building near copies of ice and EV vehicles. Lightning is likely going to be the real barometer here, and I think it's HIGHLY improbable that it has better resale than it's gas equivalent.

Yea, I think the "early adopter" crash is coming on the Tesla's. They were hugely premium priced vehicles that aren't any more functional than a malibu, and honestly put together about the same. You know it's bad when your buddy gets out of his Model 3 performance, and into your Audi SUV towing a trailer and says "damn, it's quiet in here".......and SUV with a trailer and a roof rack shouldn't be quieter than your "premium" EV sedan.

 

[2kwik4u]

Did prices take a tumble? Actually, they probably did after the most recent drastic price cut on new teslas. Before the cut, when I was replacing my dead Model S, I looked at used Teslas and prices were almost the same as new vehicles.

There are a couple on the "buy here pay here" lots around me. Which means they've reached mainstream status locally, and the prices will reflect that.

Here's one for under $30k with reasonable miles for it's age. Just a few miles from me.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?#listing=353098405/NONE

 

[HangOutdoors]

$30k for almost 90,000 miles on a 6 year old Electric Vehicle, and a battery that is recommended to be replaced at 8 years or 100,000 miles for what I just searched and would cost between $10,000 - $16,000 circa. Meh.