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High car payment? No problem…

BlkGS

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Did prices take a tumble? Actually, they probably did after the most recent drastic price cut on new teslas. Before the cut, when I was replacing my dead Model S, I looked at used Teslas and prices were almost the same as new vehicles.
They've always been kinda cheap used vs what they are new. You can get into the fancy dual motor p90x wtfever model x for like 50k with like 30k miles. Those were 100k new and are like half off for 3 years old. That's like, German levels of depreciation. You can get a Plaid for well under 100k.

Now used ones might be nearing what they cost new in like 2012 or something like that... But they're way cheaper than MSRP now.
 

BlkGS

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We had our Tesla for 2 years and traded it in for more than we paid for it....

Also the model 3 is not a premium car, it is an entry level EV. Comparing it to an Audi is not fair. They also are louder because they need to keep weight down to maximize range.

Anyways I think the battery replacement thing is kinda BS.... Will it not be as good as brand new, sure... thats why you pay less. The car is still going to get you from A to B, it's not like it just stops working. It will take just as long (if not longer) for that to happen as to when people junk an ICE.
The problem is in an ICE vehicle, as it ages the distance it can get you between A ad B doesn't get shorter.

That said, I tend to agree that electric cars will likely never see battery replacements in a large scale. Too expensive and not what the manufacturers want. It's way more profitable for them to sell a new car than a battery replacement for a mold car. And truth be told, once cars are effectively autonomous, there's really very limited reasons to replace it with something new. Styling? Interior? That's about it. You won't care about performance or handling or anything since you're not driving. Tech won't even matter because you'll just be using your phone anyways while the car drives itself. So the only way for them to stay in business will be for you to need to upgrade from degraded use, or subscription based business models that consumers HATE.
 

BlkGS

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@BlkGS Totally right there with you. I would be in the market for another vehicle, but I am not going to purchase at the prices they are asking.
I'm just waiting. I doubt they can hold out for much longer. I give it 6 months tops before the whole industry is in a fire sale panic. The last quarter or so the only thing that's been really propping up the domestics is fleet sales.

I inquired about a new tundra recently. They didn't have the trim and options I wanted but they were doing $4500 off MSRP before you even asked. Toyota didn't typically offer major discounts, so them offering that much off right up front is pretty interesting. That's in a trucks that's already priced 5-10k cheaper than the f150 equivalent.

I figure if the market doesn't loosen up a lot I might just find a real clean srt10 r quad cab and add that to the fleet. Fastest home Depot run around!
 

2kwik4u

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You are comparing Apples and Oranges. EVs have a higher cost to entry. Also the M3P will be doing 60 before the Q7 can react to you pressing the gas pedal. If you consider it a sports car vs a luxury car, it’s one of the best values to be had. You certainly wouldn’t compare a corvette to an audi suv.
First, we're talking quality not speed/acceleration. So that's a giant red herring to distract the conversation.

A closer apples to apples is the tuned S6 he traded for the M3P. Which was approximately the same price and performance. The M3P feels cheap and poorly assembled in comparison despite having a similar cost. He upgraded only for the better maintenance, and to move away from the ICE. He downgraded on build quality, ride quality, and luxury in general.

I've ridden in a Rivian a few times now. The fit/finish/ride is what one would expect from an $80k pickup. They understood the assignment. Tesla, remains a tech company that happens to make cars, not a car company with good tech, and it shows.
 

2kwik4u

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I'm just waiting. I doubt they can hold out for much longer. I give it 6 months tops before the whole industry is in a fire sale panic. The last quarter or so the only thing that's been really propping up the domestics is fleet sales.

I inquired about a new tundra recently. They didn't have the trim and options I wanted but they were doing $4500 off MSRP before you even asked. Toyota didn't typically offer major discounts, so them offering that much off right up front is pretty interesting. That's in a trucks that's already priced 5-10k cheaper than the f150 equivalent.

I figure if the market doesn't loosen up a lot I might just find a real clean srt10 r quad cab and add that to the fleet. Fastest home Depot run around!
I stopped into a local Dodge dealer in January. They had a nice Durango R/T with all the options in the color I wanted. $68k sticker price. Ouch. On top of that they had a $15k "Market Adjustment" tacked on. Guy came out before I could get back in the Q7 and started asking if I was interested. I told him it was a hard pass at $87k, and that his nuts were loose to think he'd sell with that markup. His response was a full loaded double down of "Good luck finding another one, it'll sell in a week for that".

That was almost 9wks ago now. It was still sitting there when I went to lunch on Thursday. I'm curious if they've dropped the markup yet. It was the only Durango on the lot then. There's 8-9 more there now.

I suspect we'll start seeing those discounts come back soon. I also think the premise of holding back production to retain high demand is gonna backfire on GM. Total sales will be down and they're gonna lose market share because of it.
 

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NYC is also going to 100% electrical for HVAC, cooking, and dryers. We have been upgrading older buildings "electrification jobs". I did 1 so far and the increased demand on even the smallest buildings creates a lot of issues with space constraints. The local utility needs to bring in extra feeders, we need to increase switchgear sizes, etc. The last job had a relatively large transformer that couldn't fit through the doors and stairs to the main electrical room. I'm not sure what the contractor ended up doing, because I've been too busy on other projects.

Then the current code says that we must provide future EV charging to 20% of parking spots. That also adds up really fast, even just for 20% of the parking spaces. Sometimes I specify power share EV stations, OK so you're charging at 7.2kw fast charge and then your neighbor plugs in, now it's at 3.6kw and maybe you won't have a full charge in the morning. Some owners want it this way because it significantly reduces their cost. But the code reads that I only need to provide the means to install EV charging stations to 20% of parking spots. So I increase the size of the distribution board and provide a 1200amp circuit breaker for future use Easy math, average building we have to provide charging to 40 parking spaces.

Relatively large building:
EV stations 40 parking spaces x7.2kw=288kw
Parking Stackers = 50kw
Lighting/Recept = 45kw
1,063amps at 208/120v
That's a 1200amp service just for the parking garage
Then provide electric HVAC and cooking and the apartments require 5000amp service
And after house loads we're talking 6200amp demand (ignoring diversity). But the point is, before all the electrification the same building would only require maybe 2000amp to 3000amp service. It's a significant change in demand and we're only providing charging capabilities to 20% of the residents.

I was in a virtual meeting with NYC's engineers or whatever they are. And they showed all these fancy slides about electrification and how somehow the electrical grid has diversity to avoid issues. I'm not an expert with distribution outside the building, but the math just wasn't mathing for me because they neglected to talk about EV charging. I'm definitely a skeptic.

EDIT: I wrote a mess. Kind of jumping all over the place, but you get the point lol
I get it! Your post solidifies what I’m saying about the demand increases.

One point I did not mention is that in Britain they way that EV charging is being managed is that all new EV chargers have to have its own smart meter that has the ability to be turned on or off remotely. This allows the power dispatching centers to control when and how fast EV charging can be brought on line. That’s one way to keep the load demand within the frequency demand response of the ACE equation. The diversity a lot of these engineers speak of still incorporates a “smart” grid wherein the batteries in electric cars are used to help support the grid when generation resources are low.

I also want to be clear here, if people want an electric car because they think they are trick I have no issue with that, that’s an individual choice. What I have a problem with is when it’s put out that EV’s are zero emission vehicles, and that the current grid infrastructure can handle this load increase. Again I had these discussions with EV interest groups about making the place where I worked electric car friendly, and I as the supervisor over the grid control center was brought in as the subject matter expert. When I started asking the logical questions about how the existing switchgear in the car parks was going to have to be upgraded by 80% to handle these loads and why, I was then attacked for being anti EV. I told this one person that these are the laws of physics and electrical theory, those things don’t have feelings, people way smarter than me figured all this stuff out, people like; Volta, Ampere, Kirchhoff, Westinghouse and most of all Nikola Tesla, I’m just telling you THE facts, not my facts, THE facts.

Lastly, I was thinking last night how I would go about expanding the grid to handle this load increase and realized I left something out of my previous mention about fault studies and fault duties, about the only way to handle the increase in fault duty is to further break the distribution substations out into many more stations with the associated relay coordination, transfer trip schemes that utilize pilot wire comms as well as SPS / RAS (special protection schemes / remedial action schemes) to help manage fault duty. This would also involve breaking the sub transmission and transmission systems out into isolated systems as all that supply would be subject to the overall fault duty, these systems could be tied together in certain very limited scenarios for redundancy in the N-1, N-2, N-3 etc..planning.
 

zpaul

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I get it! Your post solidifies what I’m saying about the demand increases.

One point I did not mention is that in Britain they way that EV charging is being managed is that all new EV chargers have to have its own smart meter that has the ability to be turned on or off remotely. This allows the power dispatching centers to control when and how fast EV charging can be brought on line. That’s one way to keep the load demand within the frequency demand response of the ACE equation. The diversity a lot of these engineers speak of still incorporates a “smart” grid wherein the batteries in electric cars are used to help support the grid when generation resources are low.

I also want to be clear here, if people want an electric car because they think they are trick I have no issue with that, that’s an individual choice. What I have a problem with is when it’s put out that EV’s are zero emission vehicles, and that the current grid infrastructure can handle this load increase. Again I had these discussions with EV interest groups about making the place where I worked electric car friendly, and I as the supervisor over the grid control center was brought in as the subject matter expert. When I started asking the logical questions about how the existing switchgear in the car parks was going to have to be upgraded by 80% to handle these loads and why, I was then attacked for being anti EV. I told this one person that these are the laws of physics and electrical theory, those things don’t have feelings, people way smarter than me figured all this stuff out, people like; Volta, Ampere, Kirchhoff, Westinghouse and most of all Nikola Tesla, I’m just telling you THE facts, not my facts, THE facts.

Lastly, I was thinking last night how I would go about expanding the grid to handle this load increase and realized I left something out of my previous mention about fault studies and fault duties, about the only way to handle the increase in fault duty is to further break the distribution substations out into many more stations with the associated relay coordination, transfer trip schemes that utilize pilot wire comms as well as SPS / RAS (special protection schemes / remedial action schemes) to help manage fault duty. This would also involve breaking the sub transmission and transmission systems out into isolated systems as all that supply would be subject to the overall fault duty, these systems could be tied together in certain very limited scenarios for redundancy in the N-1, N-2, N-3 etc..planning.
EVs can be easily charged overnight assuming you charge at home. That is when grid is not overloaded and consumption goes down.
Very easy to influence behavior of people charging.
Like in MD they offer almost 3 different programs for you and you can participate in all 3 at the same time.
If you charge during off peak ours basically 9pm-7am or anytime on weekend you get 50% off on your car charging consumption.
If you charge 90% of your time during off peak they give you $50 a year reward.
If you connect your electric charger to local utility and they control you charging basically 12am-7am you get additional $10 bill credit.
In all these cases you can override and charge whenever you want but in 99% of cases that would fit avg driver. After all these incentives you are basically paying $0.05 -$0.06 per kWh vs $0.40 at charging stations.

Now when you talk about public transportation, commercial fleet, police vehicles and so on that will drive the consumption through the roof.
Also knowing our government they will incentivize something to the point when it doesn't make any sense and after start taxing the shit out of you.
Right now EVs do not contribute anything to road infrastructure and they are heavy as hell. ICE vehicle do that at the pump. Some states trying to fix it by charging higher registration fees for EVs.
What I expect is that soon owning EV will not bring you any savings vs GAS, they are more expensive to begin with, Rivian for example is an energy hog and with increase demand on the grid the price of electricity will go up even more. No one is building new Nukes it is just not economically feasible, old Nukes will start retiring since they are all 50-60 years old. And new generation AKA solar panels and wind is a total joke. Solar panel performance degrades like crazy plus you need to clean those panels from dust and dirt, if not their efficiency drops even more.

Except for cool electronics, being "environmentally friendly", ease of maintenance there is no point owning EV. You can get 2 Priuses for the price of one Tesla and those provide same fuel savings.
 
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BlkGS

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I stopped into a local Dodge dealer in January. They had a nice Durango R/T with all the options in the color I wanted. $68k sticker price. Ouch. On top of that they had a $15k "Market Adjustment" tacked on. Guy came out before I could get back in the Q7 and started asking if I was interested. I told him it was a hard pass at $87k, and that his nuts were loose to think he'd sell with that markup. His response was a full loaded double down of "Good luck finding another one, it'll sell in a week for that".

That was almost 9wks ago now. It was still sitting there when I went to lunch on Thursday. I'm curious if they've dropped the markup yet. It was the only Durango on the lot then. There's 8-9 more there now.

I suspect we'll start seeing those discounts come back soon. I also think the premise of holding back production to retain high demand is gonna backfire on GM. Total sales will be down and they're gonna lose market share because of it.
Agree, sounds like Ford is also playing that game. I suspect when revenues have dropped significantly at the end of the quarter they'll take a real hard look at the business model and realize that nobody is gonna play that game with them.

I'm surprised that dealer was like that. Dodge and ram have been quietly offering discounts and such. A buddy got a gladiator at 5k under MSRP and 0% for 72 months like 6 months ago. There are local dealers here that will order you a dodge well under MSRP already.

It's an odd dynamic though, with a lot of people blaming greedy dealers, and a lot of dealers bla.ing greedy automakers. As is normally the case, the reality is somewhere in the middle. Dealers that are inflating.peices are definitely causing an issue, but automakers not recognizing there is no more blood in the consumer market rock to be squeezed out isn't helping either.

What most interesting to me is it's ALL incemtoves. The MSRP on a fully equipped f150 lariat for example hasn't changed ged THAT much. Used 2019 and 2020 trucks I've been looking at were 68-70k new. They're like 74k or so now, but that's with powerboost that wasn't available before, probably some other features like that too. The big difference is that was a 55k with 0% financing truck in 2019 because of incentives. At the end of the day, it only takes one brand to torpedo this whole auto industry cartel thing. It'll probably be dodge. They start offering incentives that put their pricing back in line, and Ford and GM are toast. Hell, they're already hurting because tundra doesn't have the hyper inflated MSRP that the domestics do. Tundra is in short supply still because they're selling at reasonable prices. Once they get the bugs worked out of that TT V6, that's gonna be a hell of a truck.
 

TimW451

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I'm surprised that dealer was like that...
Gotta dealer shop. Some of these guys are like memes of people selling drywall or lumber during COVID. I had to shop 5 Ford dealers before I bought my Mustang. 4 out of 5 had a config I liked, but only one wasn’t a dick. That is the second biggest difficulty in looking for a Wrangler now. (Number one is finding a color other than black, white or silver.)
... Once they get the bugs worked out of that TT V6, that's gonna be a hell of a truck.
Won’t that be sweet in a Wrangler!:winkingthumbsup"
 

I_squared_r

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Gotta dealer shop. Some of these guys are like memes of people selling drywall or lumber during COVID. I had to shop 5 Ford dealers before I bought my Mustang. 4 out of 5 had a config I liked, but only one wasn’t a dick. That is the second biggest difficulty in looking for a Wrangler now. (Number one is finding a color other than black, white or silver.)

Won’t that be sweet in a Wrangler!:winkingthumbsup"
A lot of salesmen are crazy lol. When I bought the Tacoma I called probably 50+ dealerships and walked into 5+ dealers. Only 1 was willing to work with me on the price. I was luckier with my RAM, I walked into 3 dealers and the 3rd dealer had a very honest salesman. I thought "this is unusual, most salesmen try to squeeze for everything, maybe he's new at this". We talked a lot, like friends, and after a while he told me "sales isn't for me, I'm leaving this industry". It's like you have to be sleazy to be in car sales and it's not for the average person.
 

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I was behind a Tundra today. Love the full width rear opening glass. Reminds me of most old station wagons. I would love this in an SUV.
View attachment 202897
Wife saw that on a tundra this weekend and liked it. Now that they've finally stepped up into this generation with the Tundra I'll give it a look when I replace my truck. However, apparently I need to double my income cause trucks have gotten even more absurd than they were a few years ago.
 

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Wife saw that on a tundra this weekend and liked it. Now that they've finally stepped up into this generation with the Tundra I'll give it a look when I replace my truck. However, apparently I need to double my income cause trucks have gotten even more absurd than they were a few years ago.
And that is why I'm driving a Tesla. Waiting for "detroit" to fail again and then I will pick up a truck on fire sale.
 

BlkGS

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Wife saw that on a tundra this weekend and liked it. Now that they've finally stepped up into this generation with the Tundra I'll give it a look when I replace my truck. However, apparently I need to double my income cause trucks have gotten even more absurd than they were a few years ago.
The Tundras are the value leader in the segment now... They're like 10k less than the Ford or Ram equivalent.
 

suke

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The Tundras are the value leader in the segment now... They're like 10k less than the Ford or Ram equivalent.
That used to be the case. Have you looked at them recently? These new ones that I've seen locally are right up there with their equivalent Ford counterparts. I recently looked at a Nissan Titan, which I said I never would, and from a looks perspective really really liked it. Even those sum bitches are expensive. Shit even the previous gen Tundra with 100k miles on it is listed at 45k. Which is nuts that I got my F150 with low miles 3 years ago for 33k OTD. Can't even come close to my model now used with low miles without it being in the 50's. Insanity!
 

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The Tundras are the value leader in the segment now... They're like 10k less than the Ford or Ram equivalent.
What?

The Ram starts cheaper than a Tundra, and their top trim level (Minus TRX) starts cheaper than Tundra top trim by a large margin (64k vs 77k)
 

FSH 210 Sport

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I was behind a Tundra today. Love the full width rear opening glass. Reminds me of most old station wagons. I would love this in an SUV.
View attachment 202897
Keeping in mind that beauty is in the eye of the beholder… the front of the Tundra’s looks like something out of an animae sho gun theater… pretty ugly. The full length rear opening is totally awesome though! And other than that ugly front end the Tundra’s are great trucks.
 

BlkGS

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What?

The Ram starts cheaper than a Tundra, and their top trim level (Minus TRX) starts cheaper than Tundra top trim by a large margin (64k vs 77k)
When I built a Ram out the way I'd want it was 84k. The "same" (different powertrains obviously, this was diesel vs the hybrid max) build in a tundra was 70k. Powerboost f150 was 81 for a lariat, 84 for a platinum.

Getting all the same.features from the other trucks for 10 plus grand less, I would consider that to absolutely be the bargain in the segment...
Other than Titan. Titan is a huge value, ruined by terrible package choices and a stupid column shifter.
 

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Titan is a huge value, ruined by terrible package choices and a stupid column shifter.
Column shifters are awesome and make sense for space usage. Console shifters are stupid, and are an aethestic choice ONLY. There is NO logistical reason to have an automatic transmission shifter take up space on the console. I'll die on this hill !!! :D :D

Also, The Titan option packages are a little weird, but even the Platinum Reserve is only like $73k. I really do think the Titan is THE value truck to be had.
 

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Keeping in mind that beauty is in the eye of the beholder… the front of the Tundra’s looks like something out of an animae sho gun theater… pretty ugly. The full length rear opening is totally awesome though! And other than that ugly front end the Tundra’s are great trucks.
The new Tundra's are definitely ugly AF to me. I used to own a Honda ridgeline, so I'm not against ugly vehicles if every other box is checked. I didn't have a boat when I had the ridgeline, and it was hands down the best "truck" for the money at the time.
 
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