Coronavirus

[swatski]

I’m telling y’all I really think I had this thing back during Christmas. I had all of the signs. It was rough as hell and took weeks to get over the hump. You hear many others say they had a similar flu-like sickness develop but had negative flu results and horrible coughing upper respiratory infections. Nobody could give you an exact cause of the sickness but just threw some meds at it and told to get better at home.

Article came out today from a coroner in my county that said they think this virus may have been here during the winter as they saw strange cases coming in.

Some Alabama coroners think COVID-19 arrived in winter

An early winter uptick in respiratory failure deaths points to COVID-19 for some coroners, others say they don't see the same pattern

www.al.com

That's interesting. I thought we established @Murf'n'surf here was the patient zero!
Did you have any physical contact with @Murf'n'surf last November?
(I'm joking)

All joking aside, as best as we know, the virus human transmission started in China in November. It's natural history (of the virus) is "embedded" in its genome through subsequent mutations most of which are subtle and do not change the way the virus works, but it is almost like a blockchain, it's not difficult to track the origin and "genealogy" of the various strains as they derive from common ancestors with SARS and MERS. Of note, there are also no traces of evidence of any genetic recombineering possibly suggestive of non-natural origin of covid, the virus appears as natural as natural selection gets.

I will say this. Fake news about Covid-19 can be as dangerous as the virus, as someone put it, we’re fighting an ‘infodemic’ as well as a pandemic. Just check Alex Jones, it's not a joke really. A bit of online self-discipline is urgently required, fake news spreads faster and more easily than this virus, and is just as dangerous.

In fact, in recent weeks Chinese officials have started suggesting (or outright claiming) the virus did not originate in China, but perhaps in the US!


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[Dean P]

I’m telling y’all I really think I had this thing back during Christmas. I had all of the signs. It was rough as hell and took weeks to get over the hump. You hear many others say they had a similar flu-like sickness develop but had negative flu results and horrible coughing upper respiratory infections. Nobody could give you an exact cause of the sickness but just threw some meds at it and told to get better at home.

Article came out today from a coroner in my county that said they think this virus may have been here during the winter as they saw strange cases coming in.

Some Alabama coroners think COVID-19 arrived in winter

An early winter uptick in respiratory failure deaths points to COVID-19 for some coroners, others say they don't see the same pattern

www.al.com

Supposedly this new blood test can tell if you've already had it. Don't have a clue hot to go about getting one but maybe worth a try. Then you would know for sure. Maybe contact this coroner?

 

[haknslash]

I don't listen or watch Alex Jones. These are coroners not celebrity wanna-be's or fake doctors looking for ad revenue. They didn't say it was the virus but that they saw a lot of pneumonia, heart failures, respiratory related deaths during the winter, perhaps more than usual. They also said there were reports of a flu-like stmpom going around that tested negative for flu. MANY people have reported this. I'm here to tell you I was one of them who had..,,something....that tested negative for everything they tested me with. My daughter as well. That's not fake to me at all. Was it the virus? Who knows. What we do know is no medical officials knew what we had and the same goes for many others.

I don't believe anything China. They can say November and I've read as early as Autumn times and October. Yes they love to get in a propoganda war with the US over where it originated from but that's nonsense because clearly there were many, many people getting sick and they were first country to lock down so I'm going with it originated there. Global travel has really increased over the last decade so the time it takes to bring a virus over here is a matter of flight time, what some 16-21 hours or so? Doesn't take long.

One thing I don't care about is seeing how some states are claiming deaths related to the virus but it's not clear if the virus actually caused their death, if they test positive they likely attribute the death to the virus. Take the mother in Loiusiana that had a 22 or 23 month premature baby born who died a day or so after birth. They added her to the covid related death count because the mother tested positive for the virus. When in fact the probability of a baby surviving that early being born is very, very, low anyways yet they feel the need to inflate these numbers. Not at all trying to downplay the death totals. I'm just saying that some sates and countries will add the death as virus related if you test positive. You could have a heart attack at any time and if you test positive bam they are going to say you died from the virus. There is no way to know if it was just your time to die or if the virus caused the heart attack. During these stressful times it's not unlikely for some people to have a heart attack just from stress and uncertainty but yet they will add that number to a virus related death. So keep that in mind when looking at death numbers.

 

[swatski]

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Supposedly this new blood test can tell if you've already had it. Don't have a clue hot to go about getting one but maybe worth a try. Then you would know for sure. Maybe contact this coroner?

Keep in mind, the antibody test will not necessarily distinguish between covid and other viral strains including the original SARS and MERS and what not. Which is fine because broadly cross-reactive antibodies still give you the immunity you need, so there's nothing wrong with that. In fact, any covid therapeutic antibodies tested right now were likely derived as SARS-reactive, not covid.
And that's good as far as protection, except you cannot use those antibodies/reagents to ascertain (diagnostically) it was covid and not a different strain altogether, if that makes sense.

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[rkim808]

@Geoff Cooper - what's the daily life like in thailand now?

@rkim808 - how about the island

Aloha @Scottintexas sorry getting back so late haven’t been checking to much lately. Life here has been kind of crazy, like almost Martial Law kind. We have a 9pm curfew, all Beaches and parks closed, Road Blocks/ Check points, National Guard patrols, and cops giving out $5k citations for violating Stay at Home proclamation. Waikiki Is like Las Vegas a ghost town. We have at this moment almost 400 confirmed cases and 5 deaths in the State, and I understand they don’t want it getting out of control. I just feel the Governor and the County Mayors went about it all wrong. Hawaii is geographically isolated, we are in the middle of nowhere. No land for 2500 miles around us, the perfect place for it not spreading. All they had to do was shut down the airports and harbor ports and the tourist coming in, done deal. But it all about the money, and of coarse flights and ports was regulated till it’s too late. Now that it’s here in the islands, they want to Police and restrict the locals from doing things. Well that’s just my opinion and what’s going on here in Hawaii. Please Stay Safe everybody.

 

[haknslash]

Exhibit # 182747463829292929384744 why you should not instantly believe the MSM. Doesn't matter if it's CNN, ABC, Fox, MSNBC, etc they all have a motive in this and it's called views. They make money off of views. Think back to all the events in our country has been involved and how they just love to over sensationalize every.single.second of air time to grab an audience. Doesn't matter if it was 9/11, mass shootings, anything political and of course this novel virus is their latest money maker. They all over sensationalize and spin their own narrative$ instead of actually reporting unbiased, factual news. It's their money maker. Recently we've all seen where CBS used footage from Italy hospitals and claimed it was NYC hospitals being overrun. There are countless times where they take old or stock footage and manipulate it for "them views yo". No this is not conspiracy theory and this is why the MSM is and will always be labeled as fake news. Until the days of unbiased journalism return (was it ever on the up and up?) we will always have to question their motives. No I'm not saying the virus isn't real. I'm just saying the media has taken full control over the minds of many, many Americans by manipulating what they perceive as truth. The same for the "mass graves" on Hart Island in NYC. They didn't just start using that island for graves of those who are homeless and have no family to give the bodies to. They've been using that place for years but if you notice recently they shows a big trench some even hash tagging a certain someone's trench the media loves to hate on. Over one million people have been buried on that island for a long time but of course the media is going to make you think those pine box caskets and trenches are something new and from the virus deaths.

 

[Betik]

No way CNN will do such thing. You must be confused. Maybe a dual personality disorder !

 

[haknslash]

This is so true if you go to Walgreen's or CVS

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=185440712553145

 

[haknslash]

Ginger Billy always cracks me up!

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=508335696510753

 

[Speedling]

Y'all talking about data like we have some.
Only data we have is the past.
None of that is even acurate really till we do testing to see who has it and who has antibodies/immunity due to asymptomatic stuff.
So i will keep going to work as an essential worker till there isn't any work. Eventually they will need to test everyone for it to go away at all the way.
Or, as fickle as this country is anymore it will be forgotten by Christmas for everyone but those directly effected by it either by a medical tragedy or by unemployment. Time heals but the way news and people seem to react it's all right now and no future or past in people's minds.

Probably why so many people need bailouts so quickly from the government as well. 3-6 months is Dave Ramseys suggestion. I don't have that but sure wish i did!

 

[Dean P]

I honestly feel there will be a second wave. Is inevitable as we have no vaccine. Please keep your guard up. No reason to rush. We all no what happens when we rush.

 

[Dixie Highway]

Just saw a story about MIT, Harvard, and some others doing a study on sewage from a town in Mass with a few hundred confirmed cases, their study indicates there are likely thousands in that municipality with it based on counts. Interesting read, I didn’t even know this was a thing but seems they’ve been perfecting it for a while.

Sewage analysis suggests exponentially higher infection rate in a New England area — ABC News

Epidemiologists are studying wastewater to gauge rates of COVID-19 infection.

apple.news

 

[Neutron]

Good luck testing my poop, we gots septic systems round these parts

 

[Looper7]

Just saw a story about MIT, Harvard, and some others doing a study on sewage from a town in Mass with a few hundred confirmed cases, their study indicates there are likely thousands in that municipality with it based on counts. Interesting read, I didn’t even know this was a thing but seems they’ve been perfecting it for a while.

Sewage analysis suggests exponentially higher infection rate in a New England area — ABC News

Epidemiologists are studying wastewater to gauge rates of COVID-19 infection.

apple.news

Sounds like a crap study to me.



Sorry had to be said just for a little levity.

 

[seanmclean]

The only thing worse than no data is bad data. This is without a doubt bad data IMO.

I am not aware of a better source for the data. The data has many known flaws from a data science/quality perspective. The data collection method is human input and subject to human error and bias. The number of data collection points and the differences in how they may each be trained or biased is another. As an example if a severely overweight 55 year old smoker who has not been to see a doctor in 20 years has a heart attack or stroke immediately after a car accident that causes no other trauma what is the cause and manner of death? Now what if the subject had been seeing a doctor and was diagnosed with heart disease previously? See how this is open to interpretation? Consider as well interpretation direction changes. Let's complicate it a bit more with what if the subject had seen a doctor and been diagnosed but that info did not make it to the data entry person. This is just the nature of the system and unlikely to be materially improved upon. COVID-19 has brought new challenges to the system that seem be causing even more data quality issues.

One reason I don't even trust the trend is there has been too many different and changing messages on how to record the data around COVID-19 on top of the known human biases. Another is that a 10% decline in total expected deaths is not a small difference. In general all of the data seems to be reporting low except one week.The question is was this consistent (I doubt it). Did the data entry messaging change over that time frame? Do you really trust the people producing this data when it fails a very basic data comparison to historical/champion and they still publish it? They also published without even quantifying a SD or confidence for each figure.

I am not saying that a deeper analysis can't be done and common data science methods/techniques applied to cleanse the data and use a model to produce a more accurate report with higher precision. In fact I hope that is what they are working on now but with what I just saw my faith in what may be produced in the future is much lower.

We need good data to make good decisions. If I were a leader that trusted that report and decided to under account for the impact social distancing is having I may say open everything back up right now (I am keeping my opinion on that out of this and speaking strictly to the data). The anecdotal evidence of hospitals and morgues being overwhelmed past normal operating capacity tells a conflicting story that in and of itself disproves the data. A better option may to be to understand net new critical care at the hospital level and sum that up. I think this would be better information for our leaders to make a decisions off of. Consider that hospitals normally run at near of over 100% capacity for profits. How many net new does it take to overwhelm? How much is social distancing really helping with it being implemented and followed in varying degrees? Somethings are just going to be impossible to quantify with accuracy and precision but for goodness sake lets not have a group like the CDC publicly publish data that is obviously and materially flawed.

I will end how I started as this is worth repeating ...

The only thing worse than no data is bad data.

It's important to note that this CDC data isn't "bad" or "materially flawed". It's provisional - it's knowingly and publicly stated to be not only delayed from actual reporting, but subject to change. It's very, very clearly stated. There's a reason why this data does not become 'official' for more than a year after it is available, I think the latest official tallies are from 2018 (which is the comparator year for this provisional data). These limitations are clearly laid both in the very outset of the page as well as in the footnotes of each table. This is live data based on ICD mortality codes, and there is a lag time involved. If you check back in a week or two, the 04APR data will be updated. It's not bad data, it's (knowingly) incomplete.

Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of April 10, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.
*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.
1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1
2Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (8).
3Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza.
4Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.
5Population is based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau (9)

I fired up the old WayBack machine to last week, and you can compare this to current tables to see how data is maturing.

This data is more conservative than most other sources, including the JHU database which is largely being used as the gold standard for tracking this pandemic.

 

[seanmclean]

You could have a heart attack at any time and if you test positive bam they are going to say you died from the virus. There is no way to know if it was just your time to die or if the virus caused the heart attack. During these stressful times it's not unlikely for some people to have a heart attack just from stress and uncertainty but yet they will add that number to a virus related death. So keep that in mind when looking at death numbers.

This is quite simply untrue, and another one of the conspiracy theories racing around facebook. If you drop dead of a heart attack, your death certificate will indicate the correct cause of death. Post-mortem testing is not being performed. Perhaps you're hospitalized with a COVID-19 infection and then have a heart attack, the death may be attributed to COVID-19, but its not a stretch to make that connection. ARDS can kill you in many ways, respiratory failure is only one.

 

[haknslash]

Not untrue. Read for yourself in Louisiana news. I'm not talking about death certificates... I'm talking about what everyone sees as "died by covid-19" on all these John Hopkins maps, media numbers etc. A little while back the Governor of Connectitcut said an infant died of the virus yet this is still under investigation for apparently the caretaker suffocating the baby at home.

Here is from the Feds themselves....Dr. Deborah Birx (Deborah L. Birx, M.D. - United States Department of State) recently had this to say:

There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem," she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. "Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

"The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that," she added.

Listen for yourself Feds classifying all coronavirus patient deaths as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause

 

[Dixie Highway]

I’ll take the data off death certificates, the Dr. signing the certificate is making a determination as an expert. The problem I see is heart attacks and strokes are very much stress induced occurrence, this whole thing is causing nothing but stress I would imagine.

 

[swatski]

Not untrue. Read for yourself in Louisiana news. I'm not talking about death certificates... I'm talking about what everyone sees as "died by covid-19" on all these John Hopkins maps, media numbers etc. A little while back the Governor of Connectitcut said an infant died of the virus yet this is still under investigation for apparently the caretaker suffocating the baby at home.

Here is from the Feds themselves....Dr. Deborah Birx (Deborah L. Birx, M.D. - United States Department of State) recently had this to say:

There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem," she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. "Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

"The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that," she added.

Listen for yourself Feds classifying all coronavirus patient deaths as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause

Another solid source for news...
What's next, TMZ? lol


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[haknslash]

Another solid source for news...
What's next, TMZ? lol


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The source is a video. Of her literally saying it. What else proof do I need?