2023 Boat Bubble has finally burst!

[biffdotorg]

I could be wrong, but I didn't realize how many saved searches I had on Facebook Marketplace for Yamaha boats. It seems I always have friends asking, or I was just watching for good deals in the past.

For the past 3 years, those searches have found almost nothing. Or when posts would pop up, they were sold before I even clicked on the alert. But this past week, here in MN, my marketplace searches have lit up! All of a sudden multiple listings for AR210, 212x, 242's etc have popped up. And most of the first generation four strokes are at fair prices well below $30K for 212x's and 230 class boats if not near $20K for 210 class boats.

I think if someone is considering listing their boat for sale, now is the time. As I keep seeing dealers from MN/WI posting inventories of new 2023's on hand. Not just generic listings, but actual boats with lot numbers of inventory on hand!

It's cool to see. But along with this, I am also seeing many COVID impulse purchases of powersport items being listed at or above MSRP when they were new. There are going to be lots of folks with sore feelings very soon. Sub 10hr boats and SXS's with under 500 miles all over the place.

The market has officially shifted. If you are in the market for something, stand your ground, it's gonna get ugly for those folks sitting on COVID cherries.

 

[suke]

First time I'm seeing discounts from dealers as well as manufacturers in a while too. Semi local dealer has $10k off all in stock wake boats......and they have a bunch it looks like. Obviously $10k off a 150k boat isn't really a whole lot, BUT 10k off a 100k boat is 10%. Of course that will get eaten up by taxes, but it's a start. Truck market is there too, but the dealers refuse to acknowledge it.

 

[Sidarousmg]

I agree. just saw a 19 fsh210 go up for sale for around 30k. about a 10% depreciation per year. the ones asking for MSRP or higher on a used boat have been sitting for weeks.

I could be wrong, but I didn't realize how many saved searches I had on Facebook Marketplace for Yamaha boats. It seems I always have friends asking, or I was just watching for good deals in the past.

For the past 3 years, those searches have found almost nothing. Or when posts would pop up, they were sold before I even clicked on the alert. But this past week, here in MN, my marketplace searches have lit up! All of a sudden multiple listings for AR210, 212x, 242's etc have popped up. And most of the first generation four strokes are at fair prices well below $30K for 212x's and 230 class boats if not near $20K for 210 class boats.

I think if someone is considering listing their boat for sale, now is the time. As I keep seeing dealers from MN/WI posting inventories of new 2023's on hand. Not just generic listings, but actual boats with lot numbers of inventory on hand!

It's cool to see. But along with this, I am also seeing many COVID impulse purchases of powersport items being listed at or above MSRP when they were new. There are going to be lots of folks with sore feelings very soon. Sub 10hr boats and SXS's with under 500 miles all over the place.

The market has officially shifted. If you are in the market for something, stand your ground, it's gonna get ugly for those folks sitting on COVID cherries.

 

[ripler]

I got an email from MasterCraft the other day and they are offering up to 9K off of in stock boats and my email included also included 2K in bonus cash. I was at the dealership where I bought my MC from and their showroom is full. They had a 2023 boat there that was comparable to our 2021, the MSRP was 40K more than the MSRP was on our boat and that's for the least expensive boat that MC makes. No doubt dealers are hurting for buyers with the price increases on new boats and the high interest rates they are going to have trouble moving boats.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

My guess is that higher boat loan interest rates will also dampen the demand for used boats. If dealers have boats on their lots and offer decent finance rates, this may direct some folks to buy new over used. I also see to many sellers caught up in valuing a boat on what they paid or still owe on the boat. Maybe doable during Covid, but not in today’s marke.

Jim

 

[@JC!]

It's going to be a bloodbath. No more stimi checks, inventory shortages or artificially low interest rates along with huge numbers of people who bought during covid getting back out of their toys they don't use enough and/or can't afford and massive MSRP increases. Bloodbath.

 

[jdlev]

It's going to be a bloodbath. No more stimi checks, inventory shortages or artificially low interest rates along with huge numbers of people who bought during covid getting back out of their toys they don't use enough and/or can't afford and massive MSRP increases. Bloodbath.

Someone call an all cash buyer?! Ring-a-ding...ring-a-ding! Thinkin those 21'ers are right up my alley. 2015 or newer. Start the parade!
Edit: Changed my mind...those 242's are just too sexy...ok...let the parade begin.

 

[bubbasuwannee]

Hopefully Yamaha drops the $1500 market adjustment B.S. on their new boats. I will fight this if/when our 222 FSH comes in. Obviously with their production delays I'm sure to lose that if not more on our 2021 FSH 195 when we sell it.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

Thanks for the update! And verification.

With fuel prices rising again for no good reason that may be a final push for the covid / panic buyers.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

Hopefully Yamaha drops the $1500 market adjustment B.S. on their new boats. I will fight this if/when our 222 FSH comes in. Obviously with their production delays I'm sure to lose that if not more on our 2021 FSH 195 when we sell it.

They should drop it…. But, life’s short, if you want the boat, buy it, go use it as much as you possibly can and don’t look back.

 

[BigN8]

The recession is just warming up. I'm seeing material lead times on products fall off a cliff. The insulation we sell that was 12-18 Months out is now 2 weeks. The gypsum cover boards that had such bad lead times just 12 Months ago that manufacturers wouldn't even accept PO's are now 3-5 days!!! No freakin shit. I placed an order for 7 truckloads of this product last Wednesday and it delivered today. I'm still seeing sticky-flation on material prices, but it's just a matter of time before manufacturers start gutting each other to secure projects. Gonna be a blood bath I think in about 3-6 Months.

 

[Ohio]

I'm not seeing it. I have been tracking about 5 or 6 models from Chaparral, Regal, Searay, Crownline for over a year now, and I'm not seeing any real let up. I will see the occasional ones priced well, and they are gone almost immediately. I have been patianlty waiting for this drop to occur. I'm going to look at one this weekend, but I'm having to drive over 3 hours to it. There isn't a lot out there, and most aren't priced any different than they have been. I did see one of those COVID boats, its 10 years old and priced really close to it's sticker price. He actually paid $5000 less than for it 2 years ago than he is asking now. I will be amazed if he gets anywhere near that price.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

The recession is just warming up. I'm seeing material lead times on products fall off a cliff. The insulation we sell that was 12-18 Months out is now 2 weeks. The gypsum cover boards that had such bad lead times just 12 Months ago that manufacturers wouldn't even accept PO's are now 3-5 days!!! No freakin shit. I placed an order for 7 truckloads of this product last Wednesday and it delivered today. I'm still seeing sticky-flation on material prices, but it's just a matter of time before manufacturers start gutting each other to secure projects. Gonna be a blood bath I think in about 3-6 Months.

I think price wise it’s going to be a buyers market by Q3 if not earlier. In addition to the prices there is the banking issue, the net net is that in addition to higher interest rates the lending criteria is tightening, so it will be harder for some prospective buyers to get financing. There’s an upside on fuel prices, as demand drops off due to inflationary pressures supplies will increase which will force crude prices down despite the saudis pledge to cut production, that’s why the price of fuel has recently trended up.

 

[bubbasuwannee]

They should drop it…. But, life’s short, if you want the boat, buy it, go use it as much as you possibly can and don’t look back.

For sure...I won't let $1500 stop me, but it may be something that I can negotiate. The same dealer has 19' boats in stock....

 

[2kwik4u]

The recession is just warming up. I'm seeing material lead times on products fall off a cliff. The insulation we sell that was 12-18 Months out is now 2 weeks. The gypsum cover boards that had such bad lead times just 12 Months ago that manufacturers wouldn't even accept PO's are now 3-5 days!!! No freakin shit. I placed an order for 7 truckloads of this product last Wednesday and it delivered today. I'm still seeing sticky-flation on material prices, but it's just a matter of time before manufacturers start gutting each other to secure projects. Gonna be a blood bath I think in about 3-6 Months.

I work in manufacturing. Quoted a $1.7mil dryer system to a good customer of ours last week. We had reasonable margins in there, and beat up our sub vendors pretty good for 5-7% decreases in cost to make sure we would get the project. Competitor sent (4) guys on a plane as soon as the customer called them. Sold the system for $1.2M. I couldn't even get my cost that low. Best I can tell competitor just bought the project at cost, is cutting some corners, and just trying to keep the lights on. The markets getting tight, and the closer you are to commodity items the worse it'll be for you. This was a "run of the mill" dryer system, nothing special. Our custom equipment is still thriving, but we're selling a custom turnkey solution in those markets that is pretty hard to imitate.

Only thing we're hurting on for parts right now are PLC/sensor/actuator components. They're still 50+ weeks out on a lot of stuff.

 

[BigN8]

I work in manufacturing. Quoted a $1.7mil dryer system to a good customer of ours last week. We had reasonable margins in there, and beat up our sub vendors pretty good for 5-7% decreases in cost to make sure we would get the project. Competitor sent (4) guys on a plane as soon as the customer called them. Sold the system for $1.2M. I couldn't even get my cost that low. Best I can tell competitor just bought the project at cost, is cutting some corners, and just trying to keep the lights on. The markets getting tight, and the closer you are to commodity items the worse it'll be for you. This was a "run of the mill" dryer system, nothing special. Our custom equipment is still thriving, but we're selling a custom turnkey solution in those markets that is pretty hard to imitate.

Only thing we're hurting on for parts right now are PLC/sensor/actuator components. They're still 50+ weeks out on a lot of stuff.

Totally agree. We sell high end engineered roofing systems mainly. Some of our higher up’s want to introduce a cheap commodity product that our competitors sell. I’m totally against it.

 

[I_squared_r]

I'm thinking about selling my boat. I'm hoping it doesn't burst before mid to late july bc I want to go to NY June 15 to say good bye to my boat and then try to get $26k for my 2014 ar192, 300hrs, tons of mods. I want to get a BMW with the money, but I'll probably be back in a year or 2 to get a AR240. I would love to get a 2016+ AR240 for 40k.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

I work in manufacturing. Quoted a $1.7mil dryer system to a good customer of ours last week. We had reasonable margins in there, and beat up our sub vendors pretty good for 5-7% decreases in cost to make sure we would get the project. Competitor sent (4) guys on a plane as soon as the customer called them. Sold the system for $1.2M. I couldn't even get my cost that low. Best I can tell competitor just bought the project at cost, is cutting some corners, and just trying to keep the lights on. The markets getting tight, and the closer you are to commodity items the worse it'll be for you. This was a "run of the mill" dryer system, nothing special. Our custom equipment is still thriving, but we're selling a custom turnkey solution in those markets that is pretty hard to imitate.

Only thing we're hurting on for parts right now are PLC/sensor/actuator components. They're still 50+ weeks out on a lot of stuff.

Thats a great post!

I was watching a vid on chip production and where the chips come from, basically china produces the low end chips used in toys and refrigerators the mid to high end chips (cell phones & computers) are produced either in the US or the pacific rim Taiwan / Indonesia. I’m going to assume the chips in the PLC’s are the higher end chips. I’d thought the logistical chain / pipeline would have been back up to par by now but apparently not.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

Totally agree. We sell high end engineered roofing systems mainly. Some of our higher up’s want to introduce a cheap commodity product that our competitors sell. I’m totally against it.

I hear you on the cheap stuff, but in tightening margins etc..your customers may need a roof but just can’t afford it and stay in business. My HR gal once told me, you can be right or you can be successful, my response was, to me they are one in the same, her response was OMG’dah it’s worse than I thought. Over time I came to realize what she meant, if I really wanted to get the “job” done I was going to have to improve my delivery (most of the office types couldn’t handle my direct approach and the facts of the matter) and give the customers what they wanted even though what they wanted was crap and they’d have to replace “it” in a few years rather than a decade(s). Not telling you how to think, just telling you what my experience was, and I still use what she told me today to solve problems or achieve goals.

I still maintain my position that I made in another thread a while ago, inflation, recession, and now once again the banksters games which has brought about their own issues that American tax payers should not have to pay for- mainly caused by the gutting of the 1933 Glass / Steagal act under bill clintons admin, contraction of the economy, increasing inventories & decrease in consumption, loss of venture capital are going lead to a buyers market. So those who have positioned themselves to have that purchasing power will benefit.

 

[biffdotorg]

I'm thinking about selling my boat. I'm hoping it doesn't burst before mid to late july bc I want to go to NY June 15 to say good bye to my boat and then try to get $26k for my 2014 ar192, 300hrs, tons of mods. I want to get a BMW with the money, but I'll probably be back in a year or 2 to get a AR240. I would love to get a 2016+ AR240 for 40k.

You advertise it for whatever you think you can get. But if we are nearing pre-covid pricing, that isn't going to happen. Pre-covid I helped a buddy here buy an AR210. We turned down a 2014 AR192 in mint shape, only because they would not come off $18K and we bought the AR210 for less.

So if it were me, take advantage of the spring buying season. As soon as mid July hits, most peoples brains turn to fall activities and getting their kids ready for fall sports and school. Sellers boat market has always been pre independence day.

Good luck,