Rivian circling the drain

[FSH 210 Sport]

Doesn’t look good for Rivian…. Stock dropped from $130 a share to $19.

Ford Sells Majority Stake in Rivian Automotive - Ford-Trucks.com

A week after Ford reports a $7.3 billion write-down on its Rivian investment it has sold a majority of its shares in the company.

www.ford-trucks.com

 

[2kwik4u]

Doesn’t look good for Rivian…. Stock dropped from $130 a share to $19.

Ford Sells Majority Stake in Rivian Automotive - Ford-Trucks.com

A week after Ford reports a $7.3 billion write-down on its Rivian investment it has sold a majority of its shares in the company.

www.ford-trucks.com

That stock hasn't been $130/share since the IPO. It dropped into the $20 range rather quickly, and has been there since. I've got 4-5 shares at $26 cost basis.

I don't think they're circling the drain. Things are no worse for them than they were for Tesla during the launch of the Model 3. Ford pulled out because it they longer have a vested interest in that company making electric trucks when they have their own. They can use that invested capital elsewhere.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

I just went by the tone of the article….

 

[2kwik4u]

I just went by the tone of the article….

Yea, I get that. Considering the source, that tracks.

In terms of the stock......It took ~4mo to drop below $50, and hasn't really come back since. The IPO was (as they usually are) very hyped, and it spiked initially, but then returned back to a decent and more sane valuation. Here's the history on that stock.


Overall I think they have a good product, but they're quickly losing their first mover advantage. They are also starting to face some blow back from the customer experience as some people are getting passed over that have been reservation holders for years for people that have only had reservations for several months. I get the production pitfalls of making things in batches and when scheduling makes it most efficient, but it's not a good look.

I don't think they're circling the drain, but they're certainly not performing at the level most thought they would.

 

[HangOutdoors]

Interestingly enough I had multiple interviews with them for Executive IT position in fall of 2020. After the interview process I had some reservations but still would of taken the position if it was offered, which it was not. The field was very strong and the opportunity seemed very interesting. I would have been at their Plymouth, Michigan branch. Every now and then when I hear mention of them in the media I think about the opportunity. Of course there was going to be a substantial amount of stock and options included initially. If I recall correctly It would have been around 7000 - 10,000 pre IPO with different allocations based on performance and other metrics. When the IPO launched I was bummed a bit because It would have really been fantastic.

 

[Farny]

Outlier or trend?

https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2023/SJ0004

 

[2kwik4u]

Outlier or trend?

https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2023/SJ0004

Outlier currently......on the world stage anyway.

 

[Farny]

Outlier currently......on the world stage anyway.

True statement

 

[Rooster]

Amazon isn't done buying delivery vans from them, but in today's economy $120,000 trucks might be a bit tougher to move in significant numbers.

 

[adrianp89]

I keep seeing more and more on the road. With the Amazon contract, and as they learn as a manufacture, I think they will be fine.

 

[Beachbummer]

I would humbly suggest.. Low stock price does not kill a company. Not making payroll will absolutely kill a company.

It's their cash flow that needs to be monitored to measure their chance of surviving.

 

[2kwik4u]

I keep seeing more and more on the road. With the Amazon contract, and as they learn as a manufacture, I think they will be fine.

I tend to agree.

They're going through startup woes, and I think the initial valuation at IPO was WAY higher than it needed to be. Lots of fanfare over the first EV pickup and being a brand new Made in the USA company. As that flash in the pan simmered down, real investors have driven the value back down to a more realistic level.

Demand for the product doesn't seem to be dropping, and I think in general it's a good product. I would suspect as more of them get out in the wild, and as more people are exposed to them they will continue to gain popularity. Combined with the Amazon van business (which I suspect other companies will want in on as well) to prop up overall sales, things are looking decent for them.

So long as they don't like majorly bork anything up I think they'll stick around for a long time.

 

[Maslin]

Interestingly enough I had multiple interviews with them for Executive IT position in fall of 2020. After the interview process I had some reservations but still would of taken the position if it was offered, which it was not. The field was very strong and the opportunity seemed very interesting. I would have been at their Plymouth, Michigan branch. Every now and then when I hear mention of them in the media I think about the opportunity. Of course there was going to be a substantial amount of stock and options included initially. If I recall correctly It would have been around 7000 - 10,000 pre IPO with different allocations based on performance and other metrics. When the IPO launched I was bummed a bit because It would have really been fantastic.

I interviewed with them as well, for a model launch technical team position. Advertised as "remote", which they explained as "1 week in the factory, 3 weeks wherever you need to be in the country". A rather loose interpretation of "remote". I had no intention of relocating to Normal and we never spoke after our call.

The boutique brands will either fail or remain boutique, mainstream brands will control the market as they always have. Tesla got in there early enough, I'm interested to see how their next 10 years go. Competition is on the way.

 

[2kwik4u]

Here's some interesting reading based on the financial side (mostly)

With Rivian's Wall St. Wreck in Rear View, I'd Take a Test Drive

RIVN has fallen by more than 80% since it went public in 2021, but now the risk might just be in investors' favor.

realmoney.thestreet.com

 

[Nakk]

I don't think they're circling the drain. Things are no worse for them than they were for Tesla during the launch of the Model 3.

Then they definitely are circling the drain, as Tesla came very, very close to closing it's doors at that time. That doesn't mean they will fail, but this is going to be a tough time for them. I love their product, but having an outstanding product is no guarantee of success.