The Boat Market Bubble is bursting...

[suke]

My son lives in Mountain View next to Googles campus, my Daughter lives in Boston next to the TD Garden, one sister in law lives in Islamorada FL, another sister in law in Denver, Father in law Manhattan, and I live on 20 acres 35 miles north of Columbus Ohio. They all have their advantages and disadvantages and I love travelling between all of them. Que up this Land is your Land or God Bless America. I do have many concerns that we have entered into an asset bubble fueled by cheap money that will end up with many people getting hurt eventually in boats, cars, houses etc. But we have been through it many times before.

Love Mountain View. I've worked for a Bay area company my whole career. Been there a LOT! In my old job we had a data center in Mountain View. Spent months and months in the Bay area. Do miss some of the restaurants there, but definitely don't miss the constant traffic. We'd go to the DC at 3am annnnnnnnnd traffic. LOL!

 

[Inlikeflinn]

I don’t understand how a thread about the boat market bubble bursting turns into another California bashing thread. I suspect many people bashing California have never been here. I understand state pride but …

CA sucks. Beautiful beaches, deserts and mountains…year round Jeeping and Boating…Please don’t come here.

 

[Ronnie]

Seems like a topic for a different forum unless there is some correlation to the cost of boats being different / the bubble bursting in CA v other states.

I’ve only seen one dealer in CA that sells Scarab jet boats, I have no doubt that they don’t have any in stock at this time. There are some for rent in my area but none for sale on C List anyway. To my knowledge the only 192s 195s or FSHs in CA must have been brought in used from another state.

just for the hell of it I will try and call the dealer later this on the 212 they are selling to see if it has been sold. I’m not in the market but just a few months ago the sales rep asked me if i would consider selling my boat to them, he claimed he could resell it for the 2010 msrp if not more. Now I am wondering what they would pay me for it, not as much as a private buyer but it should be a much easier transaction.

 

[the MfM]

Seems like a topic for a different forum unless there is some correlation to the cost of boats being different / the bubble bursting in CA v other states.

Because for whatever reasons CA is a bellwether state. If/when the bubble burst there the rest of us on the east coast have +- three months b4 it hits. Especially for real estate but I imagine CA (and FL) will lead the way for boat pricing.

 

[Ronnie]

You forgot about Texas which has a lot of shoreline of its own. I think it boat prices will drop first in CA since we are already in the middle of a mega drought which is only getting worse by the day. Even buyers with money to burn are not going to pay a premium for a boat that they won’t be able to use immediately or that they will only be able to use for a very short period of time/ at a limited number of lakes/reservoirs. This isn’t a problem for those that boat in rivers or the ocean.

a quick online search should result in the reasons CA is a bellweather state.


again I understand state pride, but I’m not going to brag about CA or advocate that people move here. I am happy that it’s not one of 12 states currently paying people to move into it and that it’s not a welfare state (receives more funds than it contributes to the federal government).

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

I'm hoping to get another boat next Summer, but will wait to see if the market is more "normal" than it is now. I would like to buy a new Yamaha 210 FSH Sport, but if the used market becomes reasonable, might consider a lightly used boat. If the market is still crazy next Summer, we will just spend our money on other things. I can't fathom ordering a boat that might take a year to deliver and not being able to test ride a boat.

I've read a lot of comparisons between the boating market and the housing market. Other than both being crazy, I would offer there really isn't a comparison between the two. The housing market is being spurred by incredibly low interest rates and the boat market by folks (not normal boaters) looking for something to do with their families during a pandemic.

The housing market is insane. We break ground on a lot we own next week for a house that we put under contract last February. When we met with our builder's rep, two weeks ago, she told us that if we put the house under contract today it would be about 13% for the same house today!

Jim

 

[biffdotorg]

I saw a pile of Yamahas listed for sale on FB marketplace last night. All of them overpriced, but it’s obvious that it won’t take long for values to start dropping. In fact, one 212 was already dropped a few thousand dollars since being posted earlier this week. It’s happening.

 

[swatski]

Nobody in the south is going to comply with a lockdown again, or listen to Dr. Fallacy “Wearing a mask is more likely to harm you than help you. You need to wear a mask to protect others. You need to wear two masks. There’s no evidence that wearing a mask does any good. Closing the borders is a bad idea. Closing the borders is a good idea. 3 million will die. 60,000 will die. 300,000 have died. It wasn’t man made. It was man made. Children can’t spread it. Children can spread it. A vaccine won’t be ready in less than 24 months, and if it is it won’t be safe. Everyone needs to take the vaccine.” ……etc, etc, etc. How many of you would still have your jobs if you sounded like this? The only thing more inaccurate than Fauci, was Yamaha dealer delivery promises. But about half the population still believes the old “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help”.

Curiously inane regurgitation.

In reality, any R&D effort, scientific research, and public health policy is hypothesis driven; hypothesis being a verifiable, educated guess.

Often times, accurate statements can actually be made. For example, it is accurate to state covid vaccines approved in the US are extremely effective in preventing spread and mitigating risk of covid outbreaks.

Yet, accurate or not, some people just don't give a fuck.

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[swatski]

I saw a pile of Yamahas listed for sale on FB marketplace last night. All of them overpriced, but it’s obvious that it won’t take long for values to start dropping. In fact, one 212 was already dropped a few thousand dollars since being posted earlier this week. It’s happening.

Good to know the seasonal buyer/seller market variation still appears alive!

But. New boat prices have, historically, never gone down and I don't think they are heading down anytime in the future. Absolutely no way, at least not as measured in $$$, actual purchasing power notwithstanding.

I would also say, carrying a long-term boat title loan right now is a fantastic deal as long as one can make the payments. With the lenders taking an potentially less pro-customer stance, any glitch in payment schedule could be a fiscal catastrophe as they have almost unlimited punitive options once a loan can be considered not in good standing, by their (evolving) standards.

We recently purchased a new boat, took the first ever boat loan! It was an interesting experience.
Even though we paid it off almost instantly I estimate the loan still cost us net about 1-2k, that is after adding up loan costs and loan-associated dealer discounts. But it was so worth it! an amazingly smooth process.
Other than extra 1-2k in cost and extra 2-3 months of wait time to take possession of the title there were just massive advantages, with the the dealer and the bankers doing literally everything for us and offering discounts on warranties and extras, and we received the boat ready to go with registration numbers on! No trip to any offices. It was crazy convenient. I would never do it the old fashioned way again, paying cash/cutting a check.

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[FSH 210 Sport]

Same thing is happening in South Carolina. Lake houses have shot up 30% in the last year. I hear the same story from everyone moving here from the Northeast… “Our taxes were too high. City services were terrible. We couldn’t afford to run a business. There were too many restrictions”….. And then, in the same conversation, they tell us that we are doing everything wrong, and how much better everything was back home.

I’d tell anyone moving form another state that said where they had moved to was better, “here, let me buy you a tank of gas to send you on your way back to where you came and don’t EVER come back here”.

I’ve never understood why people move some where nice and then try and make it like the sh*t hole they left behind.

 

[bigwaves]

I’d tell anyone moving form another state that said where they had moved to was better, “here, let me buy you a tank of gas to send you on your way back to where you came and don’t EVER come back here”.

I’ve never understood why people move some where nice and then try and make it like the sh*t hole they left behind.

They’ll soon be telling you who you should vote for…

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

But. New boat prices have, historically, never gone down and I don't think they are heading down anytime in the future. Absolutely no way, at least not as measured in $$$, actual purchasing power notwithstanding.

I would be good with prices staying the same, or even rising 3 - 4 %. I just want want to go back to 'normal' times when you could crawl around a boat at a dealership or boat show, not have to wait 9 months for a delivery, and have the opportunity to actually ride/drive a boat before you bought it!

Jim

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

They’ll soon be telling you who you should vote for…

Thankfully I don’t think most of the mass exodus from ca won’t be coming here…. Too cold and too much accountability here. And those who have come here and try to make it like the place they left schooled quickly.

 

[Evil Sports]

While I have been considering a newer boat Im very concerned about these Covid produced problem boats that will be showing up on the used market. Yamaha has overcomplicated todays boats and the dealers have no idea how to fix them.

 

[Fordman]

I think the statement of"over complicated boats" is incorrect. There not that complicated. Most dealers that stay up to date technology don't think it's that big a deal. Fly by wire, module communication, and integrating gateway modules have been around for a very long time. It just depends on how much you dealer has invested in it's technicians. Getting qualified trained techs is hard to come by, but having good leadership and helping techs learn more is the key. Boats electronics are nothing compared to today's vehicle's electronics. Just have to be patient, everything can be fixed, just have to have the right people working on it. Keep in mind that man made it, so it's going to break. If nothing broke than all service departments would make no revenue.

 

[the MfM]

I think the statement of"over complicated boats" is incorrect. There not that complicated. Most dealers that stay up to date technology don't think it's that big a deal. Fly by wire, module communication, and integrating gateway modules have been around for a very long time. It just depends on how much you dealer has invested in it's technicians. Getting qualified trained techs is hard to come by, but having good leadership and helping techs learn more is the key. Boats electronics are nothing compared to today's vehicle's electronics. Just have to be patient, everything can be fixed, just have to have the right people working on it. Keep in mind that man made it, so it's going to break. If nothing broke than all service departments would make no revenue.

But how long will @Yamaha and their dealers support the technology in today’s boats? It’s not like you can rebuild a conext screen on your picnic when it stops working and disables all those modules.

Comparing boats to the automotive market is disingenuous. The boat market is tiny in comparison and lacks the aftermarket (or dealer) support.

 

[HangOutdoors]

In a boat, I would like to have standard gauges and switches, all the other stuff is fluff, imho. More to go wrong. Cool looking though.

 

[2kwik4u]

I would be good with prices staying the same, or even rising 3 - 4 %. I just want want to go back to 'normal' times when you could crawl around a boat at a dealership or boat show, not have to wait 9 months for a delivery, and have the opportunity to actually ride/drive a boat before you bought it!

Jim

100% agree here.

My Q7 is the second and last vehicle I will buy "Sight unseen". Lots of pics and conversations, but I won't be signing papers on any major purchase without spending at least an hour crawling over/under/through a purchase of this magnitude.

I can't imagine putting a deposit, waiting, and then signing without a test drive and at least a cursory look over. Some things just need to be seen and tried on before purchase.

 

[HangOutdoors]

@2kwik4u Same with me. Moving forward if I change to a different boat, when that day comes, it will be fully vetted and I will not buy it sight unseen, with out mooring cover and all QA issues taken care of before I sign.. Knowing what to look for now after being an owner and modding out my boat, as well as the info on this forum makes it a lot easier.

 

[Evil Sports]

What's not complicated is my 2013 with analog gages and cables running the important things. Dont get me wrong, I have a 2018 Panera turbo that has significant technology but it comes with far more research before it's released and significant training of service providers.