2023 Boat Bubble has finally burst!

[FSH 210 Sport]

FWIW,

I was browsing some used boat adds looking at Boston Whaler 230 Vantage boats, among those adds were 320’s and some other BW’s, I was amazed to see some LARGE price drops on the 320’s, like a $60K price drop, from $360K to $300.. 20% is pretty big, there were price drops on the 230’s as well but not as big. These boats were in NC and Florida.

 

[bikerman5345]

Anything anyone thought they knew about powersport economics went out the window mid 2020. Very few people bought a boat as an investment prior to 2020. Most consumers never made money on a boat investment prior to 2020. (other than the fix er uppers/flippers)

The memes about the first and last day boaters are happy are endless. But yet first time buyers, the last couple years, were rewarded for their impulse purchases by not losing a dime once they figured out how little they used their boat and sold it for more.

That all ends with dealers having inventory. It's the first sign that there will be much pain this summer as those 2x a year boaters try to sell "their investment"

It's like the late 90's when Harley Davidson would pre-sell all units before they hit the showroom. And folks would drive thousands of miles to visit our local Fargo Harley dealership, as they were the only dealer in the US with allotment left to sell. And then the 2003, 100th anniversary bike was announced years in advance for pre-sale and folks spent thousands above MSRP to get one. And then the market for Harley's became flooded as HD over produced the anniversary bikes and the model years before and after 2003.

The demand pushed production, and production filled showrooms, and then for lack of a better term, the market bubble for new Harley's burst and those 2003 Anniversary bikes were everywhere and worth nothing more than any other bike on the showroom. This caused the used market to tank as well.

Some forget that story as others try to create artificial demand for something that can be produced to meet demand. I don't need a political discussion to cloud this forum. We are just talking about the boat market. If I wanted to go political, we could talk about the conspiracy theorists that say the truck MFG's are filling empty parking lots around the US with inventory. (ha, went political on ya. please delete if I threw gas on the fire)

I dont think the higher prices on used boats will change much just because dealers have inventory. The msrp on the new boats is still way higher than it was just a few years ago even with incentives maybe coming back, which i haven't seen any local dealers offering yet, this will keep used boat prices higher. People that can not pay 115k for a 25ft boat will pay 70k for a few yr old 24ft boat with the same capability and most of the same features. New boat prices set the market and i do not see Manufacturers dropping their msrp because they have already adjusted for inflation in their business. You could also start to see what the home market is seeing. People want to buy a new boat but dont want to pay new boat prices or interest rates so they hold on to their older well cared for boat thus limiting used boat supply and keeping those values up. So i dont think people should expect the market to drop on these things. It will probably come down as dealers offer incentives but its still cheaper to get a used boat for most than a brand new one.

 

[seanmclean]

Manufacturers probably won't drop MSRP, but will likely return to precovid huge discounts, maybe even bigger now. Yamaha was basically the only brand where the price was the price. Shop for a Searay or Cobalt, and you always got offered huge discounts before you even started negotiating. We've been looking at a Blackfin 272, last year boats were selling at MSRP, this year MSRP went up but some of their boats had 30K or more off as a starting price.

Sorta like this:

Saw this today.View attachment 197998

After Yamaha's meteoric price increases, I wonder if we'll start to see bigger discounts there once inventory stabilizes and the stop sale is lifted.

 

[biffdotorg]

I dont think the higher prices on used boats will change much just because dealers have inventory.

You are right, by itself it wont. But that alone, will kill the folks trying to sell 2-4 year old boats above their MSRP when new. Used buyers will literally laugh at them, as many are already on FB marketplace ads. Along with dealer inventory, and the renewed used stock, they will all effect pricing. Dealers have no need to drop back to MSRP or offer incentives until the they start competing with the used market. And that is happening now.

And without using "political terms" the price of 2-5 year old boats lessening as the supply rises, will effect all the way down to the 10-15 year old boats. The funny thing is seeing really nice first generation 212x and AR230's in the mid to low 20K range! Right next to some yahoo advertising a 2012 AR190 for $26K. That is good humor right there. I would buy a 212x over an AR190 any day.

But the amount of 250 series boats hitting the used market is really surprising. I can only imagine many of them were impulse COVID buys. It almost makes me want to look into a 255. Almost.

 

[suke]

You are right, by itself it wont. But that alone, will kill the folks trying to sell 2-4 year old boats above their MSRP when new. Used buyers will literally laugh at them, as many are already on FB marketplace ads. Along with dealer inventory, and the renewed used stock, they will all effect pricing. Dealers have no need to drop back to MSRP or offer incentives until the they start competing with the used market. And that is happening now.

And without using "political terms" the price of 2-5 year old boats lessening as the supply rises, will effect all the way down to the 10-15 year old boats. The funny thing is seeing really nice first generation 212x and AR230's in the mid to low 20K range! Right next to some yahoo advertising a 2012 AR190 for $26K. That is good humor right there. I would buy a 212x over an AR190 any day.

But the amount of 250 series boats hitting the used market is really surprising. I can only imagine many of them were impulse COVID buys. It almost makes me want to look into a 255. Almost.

The electrical gremlins and QA issues those covid boats have had would steer me away from any used 255....or shoot a 255 period. Someone posted their deal the other day on FB and the interest rate was near 11%!!! That was for a new boat, but used rates for decent credit seem to be anywhere from 8-11% from what I see. That's just crazy to me. I'm holding on to my boat for a while, unless I could pay cash.

 

[jdlev]

The electrical gremlins and QA issues those covid boats have had would steer me away from any used 255....or shoot a 255 period. Someone posted their deal the other day on FB and the interest rate was near 11%!!! That was for a new boat, but used rates for decent credit seem to be anywhere from 8-11% from what I see. That's just crazy to me. I'm holding on to my boat for a while, unless I could pay cash.

8-11% is insane. That's an extra $11k for a $50k boat over 4 years...I'd love a new boat...but I don't want one that bad.

 

[jdlev]

You are right, by itself it wont. But that alone, will kill the folks trying to sell 2-4 year old boats above their MSRP when new. Used buyers will literally laugh at them, as many are already on FB marketplace ads. Along with dealer inventory, and the renewed used stock, they will all effect pricing. Dealers have no need to drop back to MSRP or offer incentives until the they start competing with the used market. And that is happening now.

And without using "political terms" the price of 2-5 year old boats lessening as the supply rises, will effect all the way down to the 10-15 year old boats. The funny thing is seeing really nice first generation 212x and AR230's in the mid to low 20K range! Right next to some yahoo advertising a 2012 AR190 for $26K. That is good humor right there. I would buy a 212x over an AR190 any day.

But the amount of 250 series boats hitting the used market is really surprising. I can only imagine many of them were impulse COVID buys. It almost makes me want to look into a 255. Almost.

Word...the prices these seller's want are nuts and it isn't just 2-4 year old boats they're trying to sell over MSRP...i've been watching 242's on facebook like a hawk and there's a bunch of 10 year old 242's trying to get full MSRP. Thinkin with the fed meeting next week looking like they're going to pump another 50bps into interest rates, I think we'll really start seeing boat prices crash as we move into summer and fall. From Q4 '07 to Q1 '09, the RE market dropped 28% after the fed started cranking rates - I think we see the same thing play out over the coming year w/ the used boat market (At least that's what I hope happens...or my next boat will be some inflatable dingy)

 

[HangOutdoors]

Mid Summer / Fall I see those prices on used boats coming down a good bit on Yamaha's.

 

[Alexegan88]

New boats headed south on Florida’s turnpike around Jupiter area

 

[Sotally Tober]

View attachment 198573View attachment 198574I’m
New boat headed south on Florida’s turnpike around Jupiter area

So much for the shipping cover protection on that last 22 footer

 

[Alexegan88]

So much for the shipping cover protection on that last 22 footer

Also, I wonder if the trailers have the potential to get bent when there’s stood up like that. Usually they ship separately and stack the trailers on top of each other, and the boats sit on angled racks.

 

[HangOutdoors]

Wow.... Friend called me and he bought a 2021 AR 250 with 41 hrs on it for $57,000. Checking facebook they are popping up around 60-65k around here. Awful tough at those prices to pay MSRP of $70,799 on a new one plus $4,00-$10,000++ in all the additional fees and charges. Should see those prices come down a bit around here mid to late June and beyond.

Here is one for $65k and guy is open for negotiations it looks like. Smells like maybe 60k-63k.
Marketplace - Yamaha AR 250 | Facebook

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

Also, I wonder if the trailers have the potential to get bent when there’s stood up like that. Usually they ship separately and stack the trailers on top of each other, and the boats sit on angled racks.

Doubtful the trailers would get bent.

 

[anmut]

It's going to be a bloodbath. No more stimi checks, inventory shortages or artificially low interest rates along with huge numbers of people who bought during covid getting back out of their toys they don't use enough and/or can't afford and massive MSRP increases. Bloodbath.

This. Nobody's buying expensive boats at 8% financing. I bet in two-three years we'll see manufactures going belly up or being bought out. Day of reckoning to come for Yamaha dealers who gouged during the good times, I hope they learn their lesson.

 

[biffdotorg]

I was noticing more Yamaha's listed local to me.

Finally, 190's have dropped below $20K again. Those first year 190's were well below 15K before COVID. I saw an AR230 under $25K as well. That's getting to be considered a good buy when the seats are not all roached out.

 

[Emptytemples]

In the market for a 250. Easter weekend we went in to see what the trade value for our 2014 sx190 would be and to look at some inventory. They told me 16500 for trade. Saturday on the phone, they told me 15,500 or something similar to $1000 less. Only a few weeks difference.

Yamaha is offering 4.99% for 72 months on new right now. I think they told me you can go up to 20 years on financing which seems crazy as someone said, the interest alone would be tens of thousands added on. When I bought my 190, used in 2018, I got a loan from Lightstream I believe, interest rate was around mid 3% and it was unsecured. Very different today as I'm looking at 7-8% likely on anything above 6 years.

I am over getting beat up on the 190 on a choppy day though. Even though we can hug the shoreline pretty good. .

They have one sapphire blue AR unspoken for so far and two black. I would avoid the black hulls as I believe most. They get faded quickly and hard to keep nice after UV have been beating them in the summers.

 

[biffdotorg]

As mentioned in other threads, there are piles of used boats listed right now. And dealers trying to liquidate 2023 stock.

I just had faith that the used market may have reached pre-covid pricing, when I saw a nice AR192 listed for $18,000. That's what a buddy of mine and I looked at for him 5 years ago. An AR192 at 18K. He passed on it, as he got an AR210 for much less.

Long story short, I looked at the photos to find that this AR192 had hull damage down to the fiberglass. I had hope for the boat shoppers out there. Keep the faith, this market is getting flooded with too nice of boats to waste money on one that will need a few thousand to make seaworthy again.

 

[HangOutdoors]

In the market for a 250. Easter weekend we went in to see what the trade value for our 2014 sx190 would be and to look at some inventory. They told me 16500 for trade. Saturday on the phone, they told me 15,500 or something similar to $1000 less. Only a few weeks difference.

Yamaha is offering 4.99% for 72 months on new right now. I think they told me you can go up to 20 years on financing which seems crazy as someone said, the interest alone would be tens of thousands added on. When I bought my 190, used in 2018, I got a loan from Lightstream I believe, interest rate was around mid 3% and it was unsecured. Very different today as I'm looking at 7-8% likely on anything above 6 years.

I am over getting beat up on the 190 on a choppy day though. Even though we can hug the shoreline pretty good. .

They have one sapphire blue AR unspoken for so far and two black. I would avoid the black hulls as I believe most. They get faded quickly and hard to keep nice after UV have been beating them in the summers.

Don't trade in your boat to a dealer, sell it out right. You could get another $3000 + for I believe.

Once you cross the 72 months the rates will pop.

 

[I_squared_r]

The prices are going down and I'm expecting no less than 20K for my heavily modified 2014 AR192. The days of 24-26k are definitely gone. I'm fine with it because I got my use out of it. I'm just hoping that I can find a clean upgrade at a fair price, I/O cuddy cabin or a AR240 I haven't decided yet.

 

[HangOutdoors]

Around here the gobble up the 19' used because they use them as rentals.