What I have heard is consistent with
@HangOutdoors and
@Taylorman. In August/September, the dealers place their order with Yamaha for the year. If those dealers already have clients waiting for specific boats, they'll make sure to include those specific boats in
their (meaning, the dealer's) order. Otherwise, the dealers just order what they think they can sell that year. Yamaha then fulfills those orders in the most half-assed illogical way possible (my personal commentary, there).
On the dealer side, they seem to be able to see (1) that Yamaha accepted the order, but in Covid times, this was no longer conclusive as we have seen accepted orders not be delivered, (2) Yamaha has invoiced the order, which should mean it will arrive in relatively short order (weeks-months), (3) when the boat is ready to ship (in the warehouse), and (4) that the boat has arrived. Though, anecdotally, sometimes it seems boats arrive that aren't even ordered and the dealer is unaware till a truck shows up.
When boats arrive, the dealer sell the boats and Yamaha doesn't really have any visibility into that. If the dealer has a waiting customer with a deposit, it's an easy sale, otherwise, they post the boat and try to sell it. This is also why some people get lucky and get their boat quickly - they find a dealer who placed an order in August that is unspoken for and it happens to come in quick. Dealers can also tell you if all their order for a model is already sold for the year, and so they don't expect more (and really shouldn't be getting more), but can put you on the 2023 list.
You would think Yamaha would prioritize building and shipping boats that dealers have waiting deposits on, but they don't. For example, I'm looking for a Sapphire 255XD. If I wanted, in the last few months I have found 3 dealers with a green one I could have had. All those dealers had a customer waiting for a sapphire. Why Yamaha built and shipped green ones that weren't yet spoken for rather than blue ones is my greatest frustration with this process. They do seem to build in batches, so we see a bunch of people get the same models in quick succession.