Not to continue beating a dead horse but....

[Bluewater272]

Good point, anyone getting into a big boat loan right now needs to keep this in mind.

Houses too. Anything big you purchase now you better plan to love for a long time. Bottom is gonna fall out, hard.

 

[Thunderseye]

Seriously we paid 34000 last year

 

[swatski]

I would sell before the crash. With rising interest rates soon as Yellen stated the other day. I would sell and possibly buy it back way cheaper when the crash happens

If I was a single guy, I would be selling everything I own and living in a rental until the market collapsed and I could rebuy all the things for cheap.

Prices of boats, historically, never really dropped.
Could it be different this time?
I think we are seeing real inflation. Fiscal discipline has been gone for a few years at the top and the trend appears to trickle down.

To me, what continues to amaze me when it comes to buying boats are people who take super long-term boat loans because it's better than paying cash because the rates are so low they will make more money investing it! lol.
Seriously, I have heard this more than once.
How many of those geniuses-investors are going to keep their boats for twenty years, while the actual rates they pay in first few years are ten-, twenty-fold higher than the "low rate" they have in mind...
Unbelievable, as most of them are technically adults. If those attitudes become widespread, than yes, a downturn, or crush, seems inevitable.

 

[2kwik4u]

Prices of boats, historically, never really dropped.
Could it be different this time?

I think it's possible, but not probable. As best I can tell from my armchair, it's an inventory driven issue moreso than anything else. We see day in/out for the last year or so people coming on looking to buy after being told the dealership can't get them a new one. So they turn to used. This feels very "beanie baby" style artificial price inflation due to unrealistically low supply. Completely a guy feel thing though, I have no data to back it up.

Unbelievable, as most of them are technically adults. If those attitudes become widespread, than yes, a downturn, or crush, seems inevitable.

Have a lot of "investment gurus" at the office. I think being an ESOP company it fosters a "look closer at the financials" mentality that then spills into other areas of life. Several of these guys have new trucks that they've bought on this same premise of "But the moneys so cheap right now". Only one of those guys traded a vehicle over 5yrs old, but that one guy that did, he finally let go of his '98 K2500 pickup for a new AT4......Anywho, money is "cheap" right now, but most people aren't really taking the "savings" and putting it in any kind of return generating account. Most are just using the savings to continue to inflate their lifestyle. I struggle with this myself, and have to keep a close eye on spending to keep from getting away from myself. The discipline it requires is the hardest part, and I'm certain I'm not alone there.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

All of this sounds so familiar with the cyclical housing prices... people selling their houses for more than asking to make a profit. Then what? Where are you going to live?(unless you are planning on moving away) Inventory is low for new and used houses, with lumber, especially plywood now at $100 a sheet, what do you think is going to happen to prices of new homes? Inventory is low for rentals as well. Low inventory and “cheap” money imho are artificially driving prices up.

Having said that, I read these posts about people selling their boats for more than they paid for them, and that’s great if one is done with boating. For me, I didn’t buy my house, truck, boat etc.. with the thought of selling them. I bought these things with the idea to keep them as long as possible, enjoy them, and have have as much fun as possible.

 

[Toby]

If someone wanted to give me $65K for mine, I'd have a hard time saying no.

I would have a hard time saying no to that for my 2018 Limited S. Ride the skis and hitch a ride with friends for the next 18 months.....

 

[BlkGS]

I don't think a drop will be due to a supply side fix. Our drops will be a result of an economy fueled 100% by cheap debt. If interest rates spiked to say 10%, our economy would absolutely crumble.

Truth be told, our economy is very flimsy due to the huge percent of it controlled by finance. Our economy has shifted from one based on manufacturing, to a service one, to now an economy based around the transfer and loaning of money. So much of our economy doesn't actually produce anything, it just loans other's money to others. That is an inherently weak basis for an economy.

 

[IvanRZB]

To me, what continues to amaze me when it comes to buying boats are people who take super long-term boat loans because it's better than paying cash because the rates are so low they will make more money investing it! lol.

This argument only makes sense to me if
1) You could pay outright and are deciding between paying now or taking out the loan.
2) You are diligent about investing the capital rather than pissing it away on boat stereo, surfing upgrades,....oh wait....
3) Keep the loan for its full term or pay it off very early--swatski made this point about someone keeping a bout 20 years

In any event, I thought interest rates on boat loans was typically fairly high? You could buy a car at less than 1% and finance a house probably under 3%, but it seems like boat loans are typically much higher.

 

[BlkGS]

All of this sounds so familiar with the cyclical housing prices... people selling their houses for more than asking to make a profit. Then what? Where are you going to live?(unless you are planning on moving away) Inventory is low for new and used houses, with lumber, especially plywood now at $100 a sheet, what do you think is going to happen to prices of new homes? Inventory is low for rentals as well. Low inventory and “cheap” money imho are artificially driving prices up.

Having said that, I read these posts about people selling their boats for more than they paid for them, and that’s great if one is done with boating. For me, I didn’t buy my house, truck, boat etc.. with the thought of selling them. I bought these things with the idea to keep them as long as possible, enjoy them, and have have as much fun as possible.

We sold our house in NC and moved to FL when this started. Basically, we got lucky on a house. We were viewing it within 24 hours and put in a very aggressive offer because we really liked the house and were going to just rent if we didn't get it. Here, the market to buy houses is tight, but rentals are a lot more open. We actually had a house lined up to rent before we bought our house, it was a nice house, smaller than we wanted but would have made for a fine place to stay for a year or so. Honestly, around here, you could sell your house, live in a rental, and probably come out on the other side good. That said, I don't see house prices busting here. People are moving south to escape overcrowding, governments that care more about posturing than public safety, oppressive taxation, etc. I don't see houses in the south going through a bubble burst.

 

[212s]

FOR SALE - mint condition 2020 212s 63 hours - $99,000 USD minimum bid - let the bid wars begin.

 

[Brad_Ct]

We bought our house in Florida in November of 2019, two houses just sold in our neighborhood that are comparable for 150k more then we paid.

 

[the MfM]

We are going to list our house in a little over a week. Realtor is going to show it over the weekend and except offers until Tuesday. He expects a bidding war...his suggested starting price (to promote the bidding war) is 150k more then I’d pay.

Going to live in our rv until it gets too cold and then rent/buy another house depending on when the crash comes.

 

[906Tony]

FOR SALE - mint condition 2020 212s 63 hours - $99,000 USD minimum bid - let the bid wars begin.

@212s Would you accept a few sheets of plywood as payment??

 

[212s]

@212s Would you accept a few sheets of plywood as payment??

`Bout the same price...yuuuup.

 

[swatski]

...

Going to live in our rv until it gets too cold and then rent/buy another house depending on when the crash comes.

Nomadland! lol

But seriously, there will likely be no crush; better brace yourself. Nothing wrong with renting though, it's actually smarter under many if not most circumstances.

--

 

[the MfM]

...

Nomadland! lol

But seriously, there will likely be no crush; better brace yourself. Nothing wrong with renting though, it's actually smarter under many if not most circumstances.

--

Yeah our chances of timing the market aren’t great, but we have wanted to sell the house for other reasons. It’s a leap of faith that it will be the right decision to sell. Though we have bought, remodeled and sold five houses so this isn’t totally out of the ordinary for us. We can cash out and put the money in a money market fund and use the interest and property tax savings to pay for rent.

We feel like it’s 2006 all over again. Realtors here are saying only to accept cash offers because the houses won’t appraise for the selling price Lumber prices are to the moon, every empty house lot in town is being sold/built and a dozen new subdivisions are being developed...It’s only a matter of time before the small builders/devolpers get burned by the material prices and start going bankrupt again.

One of my wife’s younger employees (gen z) is trying to buy a house. She made a 550k sight unseen offer on a house with an asking price of 510. It went under contract to someone else the same day for a 600k cash offer. She never even got a chance to see the inside of the house.

Doesn’t seem sustainable to me.

 

[HangOutdoors]

@the MfM It isn't sustainable long term. There will be a lot of people underwater on their homes, cars and boats, RV's etc. Employment and compensation will adjust and level out. Substantially. Bankruptcies will skyrocket and everything will reset. There will be auctions on a lot of big sticker items once they are repossessed.

Right now we are minimizing our monthly cash outlay and paying off as much debt as possibly rapidly. Converting some things into cash and security. Best way, imho, to whether what this looks like it will become.

Trying to guess what this will look like down the road and time the market is very tough. Figure sooner or later the Free money that has been handed out and the crutch of not being evicted, not having to pay bills, skipping mortgage and rent payments, etc., will reverse. It is not going to good for many.

Now is the time to position yourself strong for the near future.

 

[haknslash]

We have been saving for a new home since the end of 2019. I’ve been doing nonstop fixes and updates on our current house to get it ready to sell in 2020. Then the freakin pandemic hit. Housing market started drying up in terms of inventory. Now there is nothing but overinflated homes that really aren’t that great of a house. Inventory really sucks right now so I told my wife we will just keep saving up and will hold off buying until the housing market crashes or settles down. You’d have to be a fool to buy a house right now because they’re not worth what they’re asking.

When the market eventually settles (or crashes) those folks who bought high will be so upside down it will make the last housing crash look like a minor hiccup IMO. I imagine there are many families out there in the same situation as we are in. They want to sell and buy but they’re not willing to get bent over and take it with no lube, so we just sit back and will reevaluate when the market is prime for buying (as opposed to prime for selling). Trust me, I’d LOVE to cash in on this craze and get a ton of money for my house ...but the kind of house and land I’m looking for doesn’t exist in this cannibalistic housing market right now. Bring on the foreclosures!!

 

[BlkGS]

I think what people are missing is the realities of what's driving this. It's supply side, and demand is high. What will slow this is an increase in supply. That will come, on its own, as foreclosures start again. There are SO many preforclosure houses that can't be brought to market because of the govt. Once that process gets back into swing, the market will slowly cool off.

Banks won't do it too quickly either, because they know they can make lots of money by tempering the pace they sell them and keeping supply low.

The big difference between this market and 08 is the lending. There aren't a ton of VAPR loans out there set to expire. There's not as giant a boatload of subprime mortgages out there. There are a lot of FHA loans out, but not like back in the day. Moreover, the market isn't that hot everywhere. Up north, the market blows. Supply is a little tight, but they're not seeing the crazy price spike or bidding wars. A lot of what's driving our prices up is people fleeing the north. That's not likely to change either.

So overall, I don't think it's a bubble. I think it's more of a frenzy that will slow, but I don't see prices in the south coming back down, outside of maybe some big cities. The other thing is places that had overly expensive markets due to jobs like DC, Austin, etc. Are now going to have to grapple with people telecommuting. If you can work remotely, nobody will stay in a city where they have to deal with high taxes, crime, and hugely long commutes everywhere. Cities that are a bit smaller and more relaxed will, imo, do pretty well still.

 

[Skierdad]

This is such a weird situation going on. If I didn't have kids right now I would have my truck, boat, and motorcycles all for sale. I would take my money and walk until this all crashes. I just don't want to go a summer without a boat with my kids. We basically only get 2.5 months to play in the boat.

How many think we will see $5.00/gal gas by June 1 with this cyber attack on that refinery? I can't see boat and truck prices staying "hot" if this happens.