Drove a lightning yesterday...

[Julian]

Absolutely love my IONIQ 5! Didn't buy it for climate reasons, I bought it because it's a blast to drive, has tons of legroom, is super comfortable and costs me virtually nothing to operate for 2 years!

I've done multiple Raleigh to Tampa road trips with it and had no issues whatsoever. It takes me about an hour longer in the EV over my ICE Q7. Highway driving assist is better than my Audi too.

The infrastructure has plenty of capacity for charging as most people charge overnight and the grid has plenty of excess capacity overnight, which is why so many power companies offer much lower rates overnight....some as low as 3 cents a KW!

Long Towing is still not something EVs are good for....but this is a small % of US drivers.

 

[2kwik4u]

Guys, I just don't think it will ever be what the vision that is being put forth and what the ideology is. I just don't see it. Perhaps it is just a waypoint on the road to something else. It is unrealistic. The infrastructure for everything EV will never be in place.... I don't see how. Even the populus isn't buying in on it all.

Here's a good read from 1903. It's long and more story than fact sheet, but I think it illustrates my point well.

Get A Horse! America’s Skepticism Toward the First Automobiles | The Saturday Evening Post

The inventor who claimed the first U.S. car ever sold recalls the birth of the industry and the general public skepticism about automobiles.

www.saturdayeveningpost.com

Also found some good information on car sales in Central US around the turn of the last century from this article.

Dale C. Maley: The horse vs. the automobile controversy

Dale C. Maley column on the history of the city of Fairbury and its residents

www.pontiacdailyleader.com

Took almost 40 yrs to go from horses to cars. GMs EV1 was made in 1996 (27yrs ago). First Tesla was made in 2008 (15yrs ago). Those are arguably the first mainstream EVs. We have so far to go, that making a claim that EVs won't become mainstream is shortsighted at best. While I don't have a crystal ball to know for certain, it sure feels like we've been here before!

 

[HangOutdoors]

Here's a good read from 1903. It's long and more story than fact sheet, but I think it illustrates my point well.

Get A Horse! America’s Skepticism Toward the First Automobiles | The Saturday Evening Post

The inventor who claimed the first U.S. car ever sold recalls the birth of the industry and the general public skepticism about automobiles.

www.saturdayeveningpost.com

Also found some good information on car sales in Central US around the turn of the last century from this article.

Dale C. Maley: The horse vs. the automobile controversy

Dale C. Maley column on the history of the city of Fairbury and its residents

www.pontiacdailyleader.com

Took almost 40 yrs to go from horses to cars. GMs EV1 was made in 1996 (27yrs ago). First Tesla was made in 2008 (15yrs ago). Those are arguably the first mainstream EVs. We have so far to go, that making a claim that EVs won't become mainstream is shortsighted at best. While I don't have a crystal ball to know for certain, it sure feels like we've been here before!

Fair Points. But I honestly don't see it really happening and becoming the defacto standard. Have a better shot at Hydrogen imho or several other types of potential energy that have been in the works for quite some time.

Would be interesting to look back in 20 years to see how it all evolved and have the same conversation...... Maybe I will make the last payment on whatever jet boat I own by then

 

[Julian]

This is a good watch too. Lots of interesting trends in technology shifts like this:

One of the biggest for me is the simplicity of the solution and the physics. ICE vehicle has >2000 moving while an EV has 10 fold less (200ish). The most efficient ICE engines are about 30% efficient in turning energy into motion, while an EV is 80-90% efficient. So much is lost to heat and friction in ICE vehicles.

I don't know if today's BEVs will be what we are driving in 20 years, but I guarantee it will be some form of EV, just because they are so damned efficient. I love taking off from a red light like a bat out of hell....quietly....and with amazing torque and no gear change pauses. It's just fun.

I wake up every day to a fully charged car....wasting time at gas stations no more.

And in just 6 months I've seen a significant improvement in the reliability of charging stations (that I use for free). If I was still working, I'd charge at work for free too. Plus I've seen more chargers at apartment complexes...so things continue to make owning an EV easier all the time. There really is no reason not to have an EV as your around town vehicle.

 

[HangOutdoors]

@Julian I appreciate your insight. Very compelling information. Especially from an EV owner.

Realistically, though most of the people I know don't have the luxury of an additional around the town vehicle. Whether it is a use case or a financial decision. Buying new vehicles is becoming more of a luxury than a need. Especially in today's shifting economic times.

As an example,

We have 4 vehicles.
1) Expedition -> My vehicle which is the family long distance driver and the tow vehicle for our boat. I drive it daily but I only owe $20k on it and not much equity in it, maybe a 3-4k. It has 117k miles on it and could go 250k miles. I looked at new ones and the price point is not in the realm of our budget and annoys me to no end. The days of the budget friendly Sub $500 leases on an SUV or Large Pickup are over which makes me sad.
2) GMC Acadia -> 2019 owe 15k, low miles we leased and bought off lease, owe less on it than on my car. The admiral drives this. She needs to drive hours sometimes or 100's of miles per day around town for work Some weeks she doesn't drive more than a handful of miles. She plans on paying it off in a year or two and driving it for the next 20 yrs without payment, LOL
3) 2005 Ford F150 - the 18yr old daughter drives it. Bought it for a couple grand and she loves it and uses it for school and work. 4x4 for the winters and safe for her to drive.
4) 2002 Chevy 1500 - the 16yr old drives it. Bought if for $1,500 and she loves it. Very safe and 4 x 4 for the winters, uses it for school and work. Insurance is peanuts.

For the kids, if they bang their cars up, no big deal. They don't drive ours, unless it is an emergency or theirs breaks down.

I work from my home office now full time and some weeks, when not out, I don't go much anywhere.

I do not see any logic in picking up an EV, having to upgrade the electric at my house, increase my insurance across the board and another payment. The hassle of finding a place to charge, dealing with another vehicle to park in our already cramped driveway/street, etc. etc.

My point is, that out of all of the people in our group of friends and kids friends parents we are all in similar situations. It is not economical nor practical to own an EV. No one in our families owns one either for the same rational and same reasons.

In our situation having 1 vehicle that can do it all for us is something that we couldn't justify giving up.

They may work for those whom they work for, but there is a majority of the population that they don't, at least right now. I don't see that changing as anytime soon.

If I had the time, or budget to pick up another vehicle, I would probably get an older Trans Am or Cougar, or Corvette.....

 

[BlkGS]

For all the talk of cars vs horses, it's important to remember, horses had a lot of disadvantages. First of all, they were big, smelly, and eat a lot. You have to care for them. If they have a problem, they're living creatures, it takes weeks for them to heal. They took up a lot of space, and the time investment was higher, for a slower top usable speed.

Conversely, electrics have more downsides than ICE cars, and parity at best. They're not really more cost effective outside of a few fringe cases (living far from work, but not TOO far). They won't get you anywhere faster, and any upkeep advantages they have a minor once every few months types of things, not the daily.upkeep of a large herbivore.

I don't think EVs will die off or anything, they will continue to be a small niche in the market. I think they won't exist in all segments, I doubt they stay in the full siZe truck segment for instance, but could see them sticking around in a midsize segment where towing won't be a big part of the use case. Midsize SUVs I think will as well, though large SUVs, I am skeptical on, as many people buy those based off of a long distance road trip they take, where an EV is less than ideal.

Here's the thing, there's nothing wrong with EVs being a part of the mix. It's a good thing really. The problem is that the regulators and wall st want it to BE the mix, with moves to ban ICE cars and things like that. Reality is, there's going to be a mix of ICE, BEV, PHEV, etc until we have enough energy via fusion power to make synthetic fuels and hydrogen power a reality.

 

[anmut]

When EV's are forced down everyone's throat, there will be a lot of homeowners surprised at the 20k bill to upgrade their home electric to cover another 220V in the garage. The whole movement reeks of desperation by a tyrannical minority hell bent on blaming the most environmental nation on the planet for the sins of those that pollute the worst.

I mean, who doesn't want to live in a fantasy land where driving an EV baptizes away your sins of everything else in your house being made by China, right?

 

[TimW451]

Cars were touted as the solution to the environmental problem of the day. All the horse manure on city streets.

Since 2003, I thought every car I've bought was going to be my last gas car. 10 cars later, still have my fingers crossed. (Did get 2 PHEVs!)

2035, no more new gas cars in 14 states.

 

[2kwik4u]

@Julian I appreciate your insight. Very compelling information. Especially from an EV owner.

Realistically, though most of the people I know don't have the luxury of an additional around the town vehicle. Whether it is a use case or a financial decision. Buying new vehicles is becoming more of a luxury than a need. Especially in today's shifting economic times.

As an example,

We have 4 vehicles.
1) Expedition -> My vehicle which is the family long distance driver and the tow vehicle for our boat. I drive it daily but I only owe $20k on it and not much equity in it, maybe a 3-4k. It has 117k miles on it and could go 250k miles. I looked at new ones and the price point is not in the realm of our budget and annoys me to no end. The days of the budget friendly Sub $500 leases on an SUV or Large Pickup are over which makes me sad.
2) GMC Acadia -> 2019 owe 15k, low miles we leased and bought off lease, owe less on it than on my car. The admiral drives this. She needs to drive hours sometimes or 100's of miles per day around town for work Some weeks she doesn't drive more than a handful of miles. She plans on paying it off in a year or two and driving it for the next 20 yrs without payment, LOL
3) 2005 Ford F150 - the 18yr old daughter drives it. Bought it for a couple grand and she loves it and uses it for school and work. 4x4 for the winters and safe for her to drive.
4) 2002 Chevy 1500 - the 16yr old drives it. Bought if for $1,500 and she loves it. Very safe and 4 x 4 for the winters, uses it for school and work. Insurance is peanuts.

For the kids, if they bang their cars up, no big deal. They don't drive ours, unless it is an emergency or theirs breaks down.

I work from my home office now full time and some weeks, when not out, I don't go much anywhere.

I do not see any logic in picking up an EV, having to upgrade the electric at my house, increase my insurance across the board and another payment. The hassle of finding a place to charge, dealing with another vehicle to park in our already cramped driveway/street, etc. etc.

My point is, that out of all of the people in our group of friends and kids friends parents we are all in similar situations. It is not economical nor practical to own an EV. No one in our families owns one either for the same rational and same reasons.

In our situation having 1 vehicle that can do it all for us is something that we couldn't justify giving up.

They may work for those whom they work for, but there is a majority of the population that they don't, at least right now. I don't see that changing as anytime soon.

If I had the time, or budget to pick up another vehicle, I would probably get an older Trans Am or Cougar, or Corvette.....

SO....A few thoughts here.

I agree, we don't have the luxury of a 3rd "nice" vehicle, and most of our friends/family don't either. However, as our vehicles "age out" or need to be replaced, or we add to the fleet (oldest is 12now, so I have a few years), we'll likely add an EV to cover daily use. Right now I drive 25k/yr AND drive the tow vehicle. It makes for an expensive commute. If the wife drove the tow vehicle, and it was a nice daily for her, then I could drive whatever EV for the 19k/yr of commuting I do. Savings is around $200-$250 per month at current electricity and gas prices. Not enough to justify swapping cars straight out, right now, but enough to justify a hard look when the fleet needs a changeup anyway. I'm looking at a used Model 3. I hate Tesla as a company, but the product stands on its own, and used ones are near 30k around me with reasonable mileage. I don't need more than about 150mi/day to cover 99% of my driving when I exclude towing and vacations, so even a "used" battery is plenty acceptable for me.

If she crashed the Acadia tomorrow and you were forced to make a change, I think it might serve your family well to move her to the Expedition, and consider an EV for you. Your mileage and usage is within capabilities, and you still have the long range SUV for vacations and towing. The used market is coming online for EV's, and they're competing with ICE vehicles, so the prices are coming down quickly to match.......again, in the used market here, new the EV's are still high IMO. There's a good chance an EV SUV would work for you, and in this case, you're not picking one up just for the sake of getting one, it's a legit option as a replacement for your driving habits. So, I think if you change the lense from "go out and replace your ICE with an EV right now" or "Add an EV to your fleet ASAP" to "Replace your ICE with an EV when the time comes" you'll find that the total cost of ownership is very similar over the life of the vehicle, and small changes to your daily routine will fit an EV in just fine.

NOW......with that said. It'll be tough if we make a change to that workflow. Her and I have "shared" vehicles in the past and it hasn't worked well for us. We treat cars differently, have different cleanliness habits, and are somewhat incompatible on that front. So having a "hers" and "mine" works for us really well from a social/relationship vantage point, and since I do all the driving when we tow, it tracks to have me drive the tow vehicle. So, I totally get the secondary parts of a car buying decision that are NOT logic/capability/price driven. It's a big purchase and can carry some big emotions with it, and those shouldn't be discredited.

Finally, the thing I like about EV's over ICE's, from an environmental outlook is how the efficiency compounds. @Julian touched on this, but didn't quite go far enough. While an EV is already more efficient from the initial production, they also see any gains in energy production that occur along the way. Say your local region moves from coal to solar or wind. That reduction in emissions is passed along to EV's as well. Right now KY is like 90% coal and natural gas. So, that sucks, BUT, they're looking at putting in a 45 acre solar farm with battery backup. That reduction in emissions will come right along to all of the cars that use that electricity. So not only are the EV's already better at converting energy to motion, they can get further reduction in emissions as the grid improves it's position. So, it's a compounding effect over time.

Interestingly enough, I also have an '02 Chevy 1500 in the driveway. Bought for $1,500 from my dad in January. Yours sounds a little nicer though. We're not that far apart I don't think.

 

[2kwik4u]

The whole movement reeks of desperation by a tyrannical minority hell bent on blaming the most environmental nation on the planet for the sins of those that pollute the worst.

Who is that tyrannical minority?

My personal lense is that we're leading by example, not being punished for the sins of others. Happiness in life is like 90% predicated on what lense you use to take in information.

 

[BlkGS]

Cars were touted as the solution to the environmental problem of the day. All the horse manure on city streets.

Since 2003, I thought every car I've bought was going to be my last gas car. 10 cars later, still have my fingers crossed. (Did get 2 PHEVs!)

2035, no more new gas cars in 14 states.

Ironically the places that are pushing EVs as the solution for the environmental problems of the day now have human manure all over the streets, lol.

The real issue with the environmental aspect is it does nothing. We keep being told that we will save the planet if we spend all this money, but the reality is, we would at best slow the rate of growth. And the masses are the ones that must change, not the giant cargo and cruise ships. Not the private jets and constant air travel. Not the 10k sqft vacation homes that are kept ready for their owners at a moments notice. Those are the things that need to change if we really want to combat global warming, but that would require the elites to do their part, which ain't gonna happen.

The whole EV push as being green is a farce, it's just a way for banks to make money on battery investments, and politicians to stuff their pockets full a long the way.

 

[BlkGS]

Who is that tyrannical minority?

My personal lense is that we're leading by example, not being punished for the sins of others. Happiness in life is like 90% predicated on what lense you use to take in information.

Big banks. The ones that I vest billions at a time and own enough shares to fire the CEO of he doesn't do what they want.

Banks should not be allowed to be or appoint any sort of control in a company. The bias is clear, if I also am invested into solar panels, I'm going to push you to go "zero carbon". If I'm invested in battery manufacturers, I'm going to push for extended range BEVs. By the same virtue, if I'm invested in oil, I'm gonna push for large,.fuel inefficient vehicles with lots of plastic content. If I'm invested in transcontinental shipping companies, I'm gonna push for globalization of supply chains.

If you also own media outlets, you can push them to report on how everything is coming from this issue that you're invested in the "solution" for. If you're also big campaign donors you can push for regulations move your interests forward. It just kind of goes on and on, and at the end of the day banks should be required to be sitting on the sidelines and not be involved in these companies and their operations. Even things as.simple.as ESG scores dictating investments is a massively effective tool of control.

 

[2kwik4u]

Big banks. The ones that I vest billions at a time and own enough shares to fire the CEO of he doesn't do what they want.

Banks should not be allowed to be or appoint any sort of control in a company. The bias is clear, if I also am invested into solar panels, I'm going to push you to go "zero carbon". If I'm invested in battery manufacturers, I'm going to push for extended range BEVs. By the same virtue, if I'm invested in oil, I'm gonna push for large,.fuel inefficient vehicles with lots of plastic content. If I'm invested in transcontinental shipping companies, I'm gonna push for globalization of supply chains.

If you also own media outlets, you can push them to report on how everything is coming from this issue that you're invested in the "solution" for. If you're also big campaign donors you can push for regulations move your interests forward. It just kind of goes on and on, and at the end of the day banks should be required to be sitting on the sidelines and not be involved in these companies and their operations. Even things as.simple.as ESG scores dictating investments is a massively effective tool of control.

So, in our current capitalist country. How do we change that? My guess is we can't without opening a Pandora's box of issues, so instead of changing the paradigm, how do we work within the existing system to affect change?? Well, unless we all want to become investment bankers at a high level, there isn't really much we can do about it from what I see........SO, we're back to changing the lense and accepting the changes as they come, then venting to our online buddies about how it isn't right.

Again, life's mostly in how you take it.

 

[BlkGS]

So, in our current capitalist country. How do we change that? My guess is we can't without opening a Pandora's box of issues, so instead of changing the paradigm, how do we work within the existing system to affect change?? Well, unless we all want to become investment bankers at a high level, there isn't really much we can do about it from what I see........SO, we're back to changing the lense and accepting the changes as they come, then venting to our online buddies about how it isn't right.

Again, life's mostly in how you take it.

There are often easy solutions to complex situations. In this case, step 1 disallowing organizational investors any voting rights, board seats, or voice at the table. Yes, you will still have a small number of hyper wealthy people with outsized reach into companies, but if the investment bank can't fire the CEO, and/or is gagged from making statements about the businesses, etc and the companies were free to pursue their fiscal goals without this sort of corruptong influence it would help.

The other hard part is the size of banks. If I own 20% of a company and decide to sell it all, I can tank that company's stock. I think the only way to combat this is to require them to issue a statement 30 days beforehand and disallow them from writing those losses off. That means that if they feel the need to sell their stock, they're going to take the financial hit.

 

[2kwik4u]

There are often easy solutions to complex situations. In this case, step 1 disallowing organizational investors any voting rights, board seats, or voice at the table. Yes, you will still have a small number of hyper wealthy people with outsized reach into companies, but if the investment bank can't fire the CEO, and/or is gagged from making statements about the businesses, etc and the companies were free to pursue their fiscal goals without this sort of corruptong influence it would help.

The other hard part is the size of banks. If I own 20% of a company and decide to sell it all, I can tank that company's stock. I think the only way to combat this is to require them to issue a statement 30 days beforehand and disallow them from writing those losses off. That means that if they feel the need to sell their stock, they're going to take the financial hit.

These are all private entities, decisions, and contracts. Legislation around this would be difficult at best, and IMO would have similar polarization as abortion or gun control.

Get this level of control out of legislation first would likely be a better approach IMO.

 

[BlkGS]

These are all private entities, decisions, and contracts. Legislation around this would be difficult at best, and IMO would have similar polarization as abortion or gun control.

Get this level of control out of legislation first would likely be a better approach IMO.

Oh it's TOTALLY unrealistic because as you pointed out, the big money has big influence in our government. They would absolutely not allow this sort of legislation to pass. While I think that most people would support something like this, those deep pockets would be used to turn it into a big flashpoint of them vs us. They'd sell it to the left as an attempt to squash free speech, and sell it to the right as government trying to overreach into business dealings.

 

[HangOutdoors]

If she crashed the Acadia tomorrow and you were forced to make a change, I think it might serve your family well to move her to the Expedition, and consider an EV for you. Your mileage and usage is within capabilities, and you still have the long range SUV for vacations and towing.

Good point. Your logic is sound..... BUT the admiral is not going for any of that. She would most assuredly want to buy herself her own vehicle that she likes to drive and it would be used and under 20k. She is vehement about never buying a new vehicle again. She, and the kids, absolutely hate driving the Expedition. In her mind 20k is still too much for a vehicle. IF and that is a big IF, she needed something new, it would be small and lease very cheap as well as not require us to add more funds into our electrical infrastructure at the house and not inconvenience her in her daily very repeatable routine.

I do not live in a democracy at the house .

I had a reservation on a Lightening and it is going on a couple of years. I initially really liked the idea, but practicality got in the way and the wait was too long.

Once they are more practical for us and in a good price range or if leasing them becomes very cost effective and I we have the budget to drop on electrical upgrades, you never know, maybe we take a look.

 

[BlkGS]

Good point. Your logic is sound..... BUT the admiral is not going for any of that. She would most assuredly want to buy herself her own vehicle that she likes to drive and it would be used and under 20k. She is vehement about never buying a new vehicle again. She, and the kids, absolutely hate driving the Expedition. In her mind 20k is still too much for a vehicle. IF and that is a big IF, she needed something new, it would be small and lease very cheap as well as not require us to add more funds into our electrical infrastructure at the house and not inconvenience her in her daily very repeatable routine.

I do not live in a democracy at the house .

I had a reservation on a Lightening and it is going on a couple of years. I initially really liked the idea, but practicality got in the way and the wait was too long.

Once they are more practical for us and in a good price range or if leasing them becomes very cost effective and I we have the budget to drop on electrical upgrades, you never know, maybe we take a look.

Wait they still have reservations for them? They're like, sitting on lots all over the place not selling! Why wouldn't they just convert their own lot inventory out to the reservations? Lol.

 

[HangOutdoors]

I dunno. I liked the idea during covid when I ordered it, but it wore off.

 

[anmut]

Who is that tyrannical minority?

My personal lense is that we're leading by example, not being punished for the sins of others. Happiness in life is like 90% predicated on what lense you use to take in information.

In my most humble of opinions, there's a minority of people that are end-of-world obsessed when it comes to climate change. They believe the science is absolutely settled, that climate change is 100% man made, and that "in ten years" the world will be snow covered, or too hot, or full of hurricanes, or the coasts will be under water, or [insert climate doom of the month here].

Most of us know that the climate changes. Man made over 2000 years of burning wood and coal? Maybe. Man made because of a dozen developing countries with zero emissions control? More likely. Man made because I own an ICE vehicle? That's reaching.

But honestly, is it man made at all? Where I write this post from, there used to be a one-mile sheet of ice, right here. A glacier a mile thick sat right here, and then... it melted! But... were humans around for that? Nope.

Going full EV isn't about the environment. It's about control. And it's a tyrannical minority that demands it, and a ignorant minority that is falling for it.