Here come the hybrids

[BlkGS]

Here are one of the studies cited by the lobbyists and the press about PHEVs being ineffective or under beneficial due to owners not plugging them in. I read some of it, and need to go back and verify my initial takeaway, but what I see is that some people use them more than anticipated and some people use them less. And there are literally a few who NEVER plug them in. (WTF?) But to come to the conclusion they are so ineffective that they shouldn't be sold is completely ridiculous.

https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-phev-us-dec22.pdf

Even if you never ever ever plug your PHEV in, which I think basically doesn't happen unless it's just people using it to get the tax credit (it was cheaper to buy a PHEV Pacifica than a normal one for instance), a PHEV still has regenerative braking, and start/stop, and that kinda stuff. It should still have better fuel economy as a PHEV than a regular car.

 

[Beachbummer]

Dealers are having a hard time selling EVs because the prices have not caught up to the economy of scales of gas cars, hence EVs are much more expensive compared out the door, although in theory their lower complexity should result in an eventual price advantage to EVs.

Leaf is $8k-$15k more expensive than comparable car.(Say a Corolla)

Cheapest Rav4 MSRP 30k. Model Y 45k.

As you start moving from margins of the market to solid sales volume, price is a huge factor.

The convenience of electric and driving dynamics are worth the additional costs for me. A well equipped Rav4 is cost competitive with the model Y, especially now with the chip and volume shortage.

As this continues to be true for more and more cars, sales will continue.

It's still a niche market until you get the brand new Chinese ev 4 seater for $13999 brand new out the door in 8 years, that goes 0-60 in 7 seconds and has 250 miles of range.

Then it will get interesting.

 

[BlkGS]

A RAV4 is like, WAYYYY nicer than a Tesla though. Build quality, materials, design, ergonomics... Absolutely smashes a Tesla in all those categories, and it's not even a high end vehicle.

I wouldn't trust my family in a Chinese designed and made car. I've worked with Chinese designers and manufacturers. They have a totally different outlook on things, and while I have no doubt that they could engineer something that could pass a crash safety test, the real world isn't a standards based test and yeah, I'm not gonna do that.

 

[Beachbummer]

I had my choice between the rav4 and the tesla. It was not close for me. Tesla is FAST and drives amazing. It might not be your choice, but for others it's not even close. I suspect every model Y buyer is making a similar choice.

 

[Julian]

The original article is so full of bullshit it's pathetic! DC fast charging stations can only charge to 90%!!!!! WTF???

The Ford lightning is dog slow at charging! This guy should know this before he bought it. Same for how much a home charger costs....I installed mine for $100 in parts plus coat of the charger ($600). Saying he spent $10k is just laughable. He might have, but then he's a moron for over paying.

As for Northern MN....it is a charging wasteland....same for Northern WI. You'd have to be a moron to buy an EV up there.

 

[BlkGS]

I had my choice between the rav4 and the tesla. It was not close for me. Tesla is FAST and drives amazing. It might not be your choice, but for others it's not even close. I suspect every model Y buyer is making a similar choice.

I don't think model y buyers cross shop RAV4 very often to be honest.

That said, a model y LR or performance really is a heck of a bargain. It undercuts a TON of ICE vehicles in price, by a lot, even before the tax credits are figured in. It's cheaper than Durango rt, explorer st, edge st, or any other entry level sporty sport ute. It's a bit smaller than all those except edge, but probably not by enough to matter most of the time. It tops out at a lot lower towing than any of them (except edge ST again), but it kills them 0-60.

Is there a reason they're cheaper? Yes, theyre boring inside, cheaply built, and ugly. But so were Hyundai's at one point and they sell like crazy, so it's no wonder the model y sells like mad, especially with the $7500 credit. Pretty crazy to think I could order one today, get $7500 off my taxes, and have a 3.5 0-60 for $45k. That's why they're EVERYWHERE here. Seriously everywhere, they're the new lease special BMW where you see 4-5 at a light here.

Anyways, I get it. They make a lot of fiscal sense if you're looking to spend around that money. They have tradeoffs though, they're cheap poorly built garbage that costs still decent money in the grand scheme of things. Yes, they're fast 0-60. I think all the other automakers are gonna find it really hard dto compete with their pricing. I think if they had a way to make the base model AWD without going dual motor they'd sell a ton that way too, and that they'll likely eventually do a model y plaid thats gonna blow the doors off the rest of the EV market. But its hard for me to say I'd own one.

 

[Beachbummer]

I think they need the second motor to make that amount of power. Also, no room under the car for a shaft to move the power to the other axle.

 

[BlkGS]

I think they need the second motor to make that amount of power. Also, no room under the car for a shaft to move the power to the other axle.

I know, but I feel like if they offered a model with a pair of smaller motors, with both motors giving the same performance as the base 2WD they'd sell well. But perhaps there's just not enough cost savings in motor sizes to make it work.

 

[zpaul]

Saw this morning Ford thinks the new UAW contract is 850-950 bucks per vehicle of extra cost. That's less than the doc fees at most dealerships, the destination fee, or literally any option.

I don't think it's gonna hurt Ford at all, they can find that kind of money easily, without raising prices, especially considering how much they've already raised prices.

Here is a different perspective from Sandy Munro

Ford is not gonna eat that $850, it will be passed to you and I 100%. And at the end will make it less competitive.
Seeing Gavin Newsom spending time in China and complimenting Chinese EV automakers gives me all the reasons to believe that our government will not stand behind Ford, Chevy, or RAM and soon Chinese cars will not be uncommon site. Look at Europe.
And as soon as you let Chinese cars in - the game will change big time. They DO have amazing high quality vehicles that even Toyota and Hyundai will have trouble with.

 

[BlkGS]

Here is a different perspective from Sandy Munro

Ford is not gonna eat that $850, it will be passed to you and I 100%. And at the end will make it less competitive.
Seeing Gavin Newsom spending time in China and complimenting Chinese EV automakers gives me all the reasons to believe that our government will not stand behind Ford, Chevy, or RAM and soon Chinese cars will not be uncommon site. Look at Europe.
And as soon as you let Chinese cars in - the game will change big time. They DO have amazing high quality vehicles that even Toyota and Hyundai will have trouble with.

Newsom is on the CCP payroll, he is trying to position himself for a presidential run at some.point so he can sell out the whole country, not just California.

While I agree that Ford is gonna pass the cost on, they're also reaching a point where they will have to push incentives down. Ford isn't hurting for cash, they're just wasting a lot of money. With an EV spend pullback, their cash flow situation will improve and they'll easily be able to afford the increased labor costs and the incentives to move their products as demand weakens.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

Here is a different perspective from Sandy Munro

Ford is not gonna eat that $850, it will be passed to you and I 100%. And at the end will make it less competitive.
Seeing Gavin Newsom spending time in China and complimenting Chinese EV automakers gives me all the reasons to believe that our government will not stand behind Ford, Chevy, or RAM and soon Chinese cars will not be uncommon site. Look at Europe.
And as soon as you let Chinese cars in - the game will change big time. They DO have amazing high quality vehicles that even Toyota and Hyundai will have trouble with.

I don‘t share his version of history regarding the UAW and the demise of the US auto industry after the 1979 oil embargo. Prior to the 1974 oil embargo, Americans only wanted large gas guzzling cars. Then, in 1975 we saw the beginning of Japanese imports to the U.S. Between the Japanese competition and the increase in Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, the Big Three slowly started shifting to the manufacturing of smaller, more fuel efficient cars. By 1979, U.S. manufacturers were making some pretty sh$tty cars and the quality was also pretty crappy. On the other hand, Japanese cars were affordable, with excellect fit and finish. This is why imports took off in this country. (I’ll confess that I have never owned a foreign car except for a 1989 Isuzu Trooper).

I’m not even sure what the $850 price increase means. The UAW has a 4 year contract with the automakers. Is the supposed $850 price increase on tomorrow’s cars or those built 4 years from now? Regardless, when looking at a $35-100K vehicle purchase price, does it really matter?

Regarding the Chinese cars, are they really know for high quality? Personally, for me it doesn’t matter, there is no way in hell am I buying a Chinese car, no matter what the price point is. I have only ever bought one new vehicle (1989 Isuzu Trooper mentioned above) that wasn’t manufactured by the Big 4 automakers (my 1986 Jeep Comanche was built by AMC right before they were bought by Chrysler). Next purchase will seriously consider foreign automakers, but nothing from China.

Jim

 

[Julian]

I don‘t share his version of history regarding the UAW and the demise of the US auto industry after the 1979 oil embargo. Prior to the 1974 oil embargo, Americans only wanted large gas guzzling cars. Then, in 1975 we saw the beginning of Japanese imports to the U.S. Between the Japanese competition and the increase in Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, the Big Three slowly started shifting to the manufacturing of smaller, more fuel efficient cars. By 1979, U.S. manufacturers were making some pretty sh$tty cars and the quality was also pretty crappy. On the other hand, Japanese cars were affordable, with excellect fit and finish. This is why imports took off in this country. (I’ll confess that I have never owned a foreign car except for a 1989 Isuzu Trooper).

I’m not even sure what the $850 price increase means. The UAW has a 4 year contract with the automakers. Is the supposed $850 price increase on tomorrow’s cars or those built 4 years from now? Regardless, when looking at a $35-100K vehicle purchase price, does it really matter?

Regarding the Chinese cars, are they really know for high quality? Personally, for me it doesn’t matter, there is no way in hell am I buying a Chinese car, no matter what the price point is. I have only ever bought one new vehicle (1989 Isuzu Trooper mentioned above) that wasn’t manufactured by the Big 4 automakers (my 1986 Jeep Comanche was built by AMC right before they were bought by Chrysler). Next purchase will seriously consider foreign automakers, but nothing from China.

Jim

That's funny....I've never owned an American car. My first car was a 1973 Oldsmobile Cutlass, but I didn't buy it, my parents bought it for my brother, who handed it down to me. First car I bought was a VW Golf, then Toyota, Honda, Acura, Audi, Hyundai, Hyundai.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

That's funny....I've never owned an American car. My first car was a 1973 Oldsmobile Cutlass, but I didn't buy it, my parents bought it for my brother, who handed it down to me. First car I bought was a VW Golf, then Toyota, Honda, Acura, Audi, Hyundai, Hyundai.

Looking back, I guess my buying mostly American has been because most of them have been trucks or SUV’s. Purchase new: Jeep Comanche, Isuzu Trooper, Chevy Astro conversion van, Ford Explorer Sport-Trak, Jeep Commander, Dodge Dakota, Ram 1500, Chevy Sonic (bought for daughter) and a Ram 1500. God, I need a sports car!

Jim

 

[BlkGS]

Looking back, I guess my buying mostly American has been because most of them have been trucks or SUV’s. Purchase new: Jeep Comanche, Isuzu Trooper, Chevy Astro conversion van, Ford Explorer Sport-Trak, Jeep Commander, Dodge Dakota, Ram 1500, Chevy Sonic (bought for daughter) and a Ram 1500. God, I need a sports car!

Jim

A C6 Corvette is probably the best choice there

I've had a mixture of Japanese and more American cars. The Japanese ones were always fine, but not as robust. Oh and a Mini Cooper S that was a blast to drive but a nightmare of "why is this a wear item!?"

Also, explorer sport Trac was such a good product. My dad had 3 of them, lol.

 

[Beachbummer]

My dad has had nothing but Explorers since 1992, counting the mazda Navajo, which was a rebadged explorer.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

A C6 Corvette is probably the best choice there

I've had a mixture of Japanese and more American cars. The Japanese ones were always fine, but not as robust. Oh and a Mini Cooper S that was a blast to drive but a nightmare of "why is this a wear item!?"

Also, explorer sport Trac was such a good product. My dad had 3 of them, lol.

A C6 Corvette would a good choice. Looking for a manual transmission and a removable or convertible top. Basically a Sunday driver, but since I’m retired, everyday is Sunday! I rented a cheap little Hyundai i10 with a 5 speed manual transmission when we we in Iceland earlier this year and remembered how much I like driving stick!

Interesting, the Sport Trac was a vehicle that we didn’t keep very long. My wife didn’t like to drive it as the rear end slide around in rainy weather and it didn’t have automatic 4WD. Sold it within 2 years and bought the Jeep Commander.

Jim

 

[BlkGS]

A C6 Corvette would a good choice. Looking for a manual transmission and a removable or convertible top. Basically a Sunday driver, but since I’m retired, everyday is Sunday! I rented a cheap little Hyundai i10 with a 5 speed manual transmission when we we in Iceland earlier this year and remembered how much I like driving stick!

Interesting, the Sport Trac was a vehicle that we didn’t keep very long. My wife didn’t like to drive it as the rear end slide around in rainy weather and it didn’t have automatic 4WD. Sold it within 2 years and bought the Jeep Commander.

Jim

That's weird, we never had any of that issue,y dad only bought RWD ones. It was kind of the right size for us, enough room for a family of 4, a bed large enough for most homeowner tasks, but small enough to get around town easily.

My dad still has his 2010 adrenalin V8, always talks about coyote swapping it one day. I wish they still made them honestly, especially with the coyote in them...

 

[BlkGS]

So Ford announced Friday a delay in 12 BILLION worth of EV spending. That's a lot of money. .

Another update. Ford now uncommitted to making the investment at all. CEO said that with the demand curve they're seeing now, it probably won't make sense to make the investment in extra capacity.

Sounds like the big 3 are starting to see that the market isn't there if the low cost isn't there. And the low cost isn't there if the capacity is new. I think this is a good pivot if they move to PHEVs, and to electrified versions of regular cars.

I think you'll always have your Tesla lovers that think if it isn't a dedicated EV it isn't good enough, but you can chase them with a codeveloped platform, spread that cost out with 2-3 other automakers. The majority of people will be far more likely to buy an EV Escape of the only real difference was they replaced a bunch of space that had ICE components with batteries. I think people would give up a drink if the battery pack went there, and of the extend range pack took up the gas tank area too (or vice versa) if it meant the electric powertrain had cost parity with the ICE. Average consumers don't give a shit about the low center of gravity or 10-20 miles of range if it saves them 10 grand.

 

[TimW451]

The US auto industry is 3% of the US GDP (US being a where, not a who), only a fool would encourage/allow it to be displaced by foreign manufacturing. I'm sure Newsome would like some serious completion for Tesla, especially since the State has done such a good job pushing them to Texas, but his end game is certainly those Chinese Co's manufacturing in CA, not importing to. (He also needs the EV volume or they can't hit the 2035 mandate.)

BTW, good news from GM: The forthcoming Equinox EV will start at $35k. The bad news is that they won't make that model for a few further years. The first ones will be $50k minimum and the ones they push $65k.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

BTW, good news from GM: The forthcoming Equinox EV will start at $35k. The bad news is that they won't make that model for a few further years. The first ones will be $50k minimum and the ones they push $65k.

I was thinking about posting the Equinox article. What a joke that the minimum price is $50K. $40K would get me interested in the Equinox, but $50K+ is a hard pass. I bet we see some new 2025 models, from other manufacturers, better equipped and for less money.

Jim