Is Afghanistan the next Failed State?

[Inthrustwetrust]

By and large, the Taliban have not leveraged airpower, which is a combination of their tactical style and lack of expertise. It is plausible that some Afghan air force pilots have defected, but the ranks whom pilots are drawn from (highly educated, generally wealthy families) are less common in groups like the Taliban.

Highly unlikely. Vast majority of their pilots absolutely hated the Tban, and really wanted freedom for their country. Even if they had a handful of pilots they lack the maintenance and support required to maintain any semblance of a Air Force, and just because you can get a plane airborne don’t mean you know how to employ it as a weapons system. Not to mention, maintaining turbine aircraft/helos is insanely pricey and technically involved, your average joe that can do vehicle maintenance ain’t going to be able to do 95% of the required mx on a airplane. They would need a contract company or foreign government assistance to mount any kind of sustained use of air power.

ISIS K and the Tban absolutely hate each other. My opinion, this is the start of a civil war between those two groups and resistance fighters in the north.

 

[swatski]

There is a right way and a wrong way to do things. This was a complete failure.

I would agree.
Undercutting a somewhat legitimate Afghani government, making it irrelevant by striking a deal directly with taliban, giving them a withdrawal date, releasing thousands of their prisoners... In exchange for what? Nothing.

The Afghani, with their corrupt government embarrassed and cut out of the deal folded without a fight. So then what? Withdraw slowly? keep fighting? risk thousands of US personnel to stage more "orderly" withdrawal while entering their fight season - as someone who was there was saying?

What would you do? I have no idea, I followed this mess since the first Russian invasion.

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[Stan M]

It's really quite basic... you don't pull the military, before you get the people out. Not sure there is a debate here...but I suppose some will always try to make one anyway. Sad, sad day and one of probably many more to come. Unwatching this thread.

 

[John McLaughlin]

I will only say "The Emperor Fiddles while the Taliban dance".

 

[BigN8]

I don’t know how accurate this is, but if this is the amount of shit we left over there it’s shocking.

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[swatski]

I don’t know how accurate this is, but if this is the amount of shit we left over there it’s shocking.

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Holy shit. That's epic.

Not sure if it is a silver lining, or not, someone got paid pretty handsomely - selling those goods.

Unspeakable tragedy aside, I feel like I'm in the wrong business.

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[swatski]

It's really quite basic... you don't pull the military, before you get the people out. Not sure there is a debate here...but I suppose some will always try to make one anyway. Sad, sad day and one of probably many more to come. Unwatching this thread.

The military is still there.

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[BigN8]

Holy shit. That's epic.

Not sure if it is a silver lining, or not, someone got paid pretty handsomely - selling those goods.

Unspeakable tragedy aside, I feel like I'm in the wrong business.

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All I know is, if I conducted my business the way the US just did on this operation, my company would terminate my employment immediately. There would be no warning, no second chance, no two week notice. They would literally just say, hand me your phone, computer, company car keys, and get the fuck outta here....

 

[djetok]

Holy shit. That's epic.

Not sure if it is a silver lining, or not, someone got paid pretty handsomely - selling those goods.

Unspeakable tragedy aside, I feel like I'm in the wrong business.

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As US exits Afghanistan, China eyes $1 trillion in minerals | Business and Economy News | Al Jazeera

 

[Julian]

Quite a prescient article by AlJazeera (from 2020):

One interesting quote that is now quite pertinent:

"The only remaining question for the US was how best to avoid a repetition of the fall of Saigon and the humiliating scene of the last US helicopter fleeing South Vietnam. "​

​

Seems we were unable to avoid this humiliation. I will be very interested to know which General signed off on the plan to close Bahgram AFB. Seems like retaining air supremacy would have been my #1 goal. That said, the treaty signed with the Taliban, WITHOUT the Afghan government involvement - was the beginning of the end for the country.

 

[djetok]

Quite a prescient article by AlJazeera (from 2020):

One interesting quote that is now quite pertinent:

"The only remaining question for the US was how best to avoid a repetition of the fall of Saigon and the humiliating scene of the last US helicopter fleeing South Vietnam. "​

​

Seems we were unable to avoid this humiliation. I will be very interested to know which General signed off on the plan to close Bahgram AFB. Seems like retaining air supremacy would have been my #1 goal. That said, the treaty signed with the Taliban, WITHOUT the Afghan government involvement - was the beginning of the end for the country.

I think it was Gen Milley that was in interviews days before that said Bagram was not strategically necessary.

 

[Quad]

I don’t know how accurate this is, but if this is the amount of shit we left over there it’s shocking.

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Is that US Military property of Afghan Military property gifted by the US? The inventory looks to me more like the latter.

 

[swatski]

As US exits Afghanistan, China eyes $1 trillion in minerals | Business and Economy News | Al Jazeera

Ironically, we have some of the worlds largest lithium deposits of brine and ores in the US, in Nevada, California, North Dakota, etc.

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[swatski]

All I know is, if I conducted my business the way the US just did on this operation, my company would terminate my employment immediately. There would be no warning, no second chance, no two week notice. They would literally just say, hand me your phone, computer, company car keys, and get the fuck outta here....

Wouldn't it depend what US company you represented there? If you worked there for Fluor, DynCorp, or one of those - you would be collecting bonuses. I have friends who worked there for some of those contractor companies, they have been making a killing, financially, for years. Their jobs are fine, and they can retire whenever they want.

I do appreciate entrepreneurial spirit shown in those places, albeit it may seem cynical.
not different what happened in Iraq; Cheney almost completed a ~$10 billion construction of an American embassy in Baghdad, just in time for the withdrawal.

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[haknslash]

ugh And the hits to our country keep on coming. Freaking idiots at the wheel. This is fitting after learning we obliterated 10 innocent people, 7 of which were children. This is what happens when a doofus (or whoever is pulling the strings of that sock puppet) pulls out the intelligence teams and military personnel. I’m not a betting man but if I were I’d say this will invoke another major attack on our country, especially with our non-existent border and security. Only a matter of time now I’m afraid.

 

[Quad]

ugh And the hits to our country keep on coming. Freaking idiots at the wheel. This is fitting after learning we obliterated 10 innocent people, 7 of which were children. This is what happens when a doofus (or whoever is pulling the strings of that sock puppet) pulls out the intelligence teams and military personnel. I’m not a betting man but if I were I’d say this will invoke another major attack on our country, especially with our non-existent border and security. Only a matter of time now I’m afraid.

The unfortunate part is that we've had incidents going on like this for 20 years now, and it sickens me. (I am literally 2 degrees of separation from the targeted man.) This is probably the most transparent / honest our govt's been about that in a long time.

Also, you're right - this kind of mis-targeting has been used as reasons by the Taliban that the West is/was evil and has used to win people to their side (or at least begrudgingly accept them) for quite some time.

 

[haknslash]

Yes I feel it will most certainly embolden their stance and justification for retaliating against us. Only a matter of time I’m afraid. Our country couldn’t be in a more weak and vulnerable position. RATM said it best in their song Wake Up. “How long? Not long, cause what you reap is what you sow”.

I wouldn’t say they’re being honest. It’s just that you can’t hide or sweep things like this under the rug as easily as you could 5, 10 or 20 years ago. Everyone has a phone or access to getting the word out. Well, unless you’re in China lol. Let’s face it, if this didn’t get out then we wouldn’t know of it and they surely wouldn’t come clean on it. They only mention it because it’s getting out and they don’t have control over it. That clown had to read off a script for the atrocities they’ve carried out. Sad, embarrassing and pathetic.

 

[Quad]

A good perspective on this. It really frustrates me that this happened regularly over the last 20 years and it failed to bother many (hell, most???) of us.
The Other Afghan Women

 

[swatski]

That clown had to read off a script for the atrocities they’ve carried out.

which clown???

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[haknslash]

which clown???

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If you watch the video you’ll clearly see him (McKenzie) having to read off a script. This whole administration and military brass is a clown show.