Reliability of new voting machines questioned-Associated Press

[BeauSko]

I find it interesting how experts are applying Benford’s Law to detect fraud. When you take a very large data set, say the number of votes for each candidate in every county in a state, and plot that data on a histogram using Benford’s Law, you should see a downward slope from the #1 to the #9. The #1 makes up roughly 30% of the first digit of a number, #2 about 17%, #3 12% and so on. This works on virtually all large data sets with randomized numbers. Applying Bedford’s Law to vote counts in this election has revealed results contrary to Benford’s Law in many states. In other words, humans are pretty lousy at randomizing numbers. This has been applied to BOTH candidates. So, who would it benefit? If it is in fact proven fraudulent, it would benefit the winner until an actual vote count/investigation is completed. Just one of the many pieces of data that would lead one to believe something fishy is going on.

 

[mark_m]

I find it interesting how experts are applying Benford’s Law to detect fraud. When you take a very large data set, say the number of votes for each candidate in every county in a state, and plot that data on a histogram using Benford’s Law, you should see a downward slope from the #1 to the #9. The #1 makes up roughly 30% of the first digit of a number, #2 about 17%, #3 12% and so on. This works on virtually all large data sets with randomized numbers. Applying Bedford’s Law to vote counts in this election has revealed results contrary to Benford’s Law in many states. In other words, humans are pretty lousy at randomizing numbers. This has been applied to BOTH candidates. So, who would it benefit? If it is in fact proven fraudulent, it would benefit the winner until an actual vote count/investigation is completed. Just one of the many pieces of data that would lead one to believe something fishy is going on.

Indeed. What I find Interesting (and am assured) that the principals have been used to study results historically.

This is an interesting read I found surfing for Bedfords law.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/fraud06.pdf

 

[mark_m]

Indeed. What I find Interesting (and am assured) that the principals have been used to study results historically.

This is an interesting read I found surfing for Bedfords law.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/fraud06.pdf

more of a rolled up explain of Benfords Law:

https://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~fewster/RFewster_Benford.pdf

 

[Betik]

If I was a future teller Id say this thread is about 1 "moderator" away from being locked. Once they see a comment that favors the party they dont like its over.

moderators are cool and we are giving them more headache than they deserve.

 

[Betik]

@Enduro900 i have to agree with the swat that your timing is suspicious. That by itself does not take away on the merrit of your concern. Voter fraud/manipulation has happened for long time. I am not talking about JFK, but rather Rome and Ancient Greece.

that does not make it okay, but it should not surprise anyone.
What I think is a “surprise” and very depressing is that phiser had vaccines results and on track for December delivery, but did not publish until the election counting was “over”. I really want to believe they had a good reason to delay the result announcement, but I cannot think of a good reason.

admins I think my post within limits, but if not please delete or let me know and I will gladly delete. I respect this forum significantly more than any of the shenanigans in DC.

 

[Enduro900]

more of a rolled up explain of Benfords Law:

https://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~fewster/RFewster_Benford.pdf

Very interesting indeed, thanks for posting......

I wonder if there is a way to invert Benford”s Law for use picking lottery numbers

Interesting commenta about the diebold equipment used back in 2006 not being secure.

That is what stood out to me in the feb. AP article I posted, these touchscreen systems have no federal oversight.

I know there are limits to what the Federal government can do in state elections, but they could insist on certain measures for the Federal Elections, and make it voluntary for the state and local, or require two systems.

we use ATM’s, electronic banking, use credit and debit cards with accurate transactions being recorded......it just seems strange we cannot come up with a way to record a person’s vote and transmit it accurately.....

 

[Enduro900]

@Enduro900 i have to agree with the swat that your timing is suspicious. That by itself does not take away on the merrit of your concern. Voter fraud/manipulation has happened for long time. I am not talking about JFK, but rather Rome and Ancient Greece.

that does not make it okay, but it should not surprise anyone.
What I think is a “surprise” and very depressing is that phiser had vaccines results and on track for December delivery, but did not publish until the election counting was “over”. I really want to believe they had a good reason to delay the result announcement, but I cannot think of a good reason.

admins I think my post within limits, but if not please delete or let me know and I will gladly delete. I respect this forum significantly more than any of the shenanigans in DC.

The timing of my post is in-line that the events are current....if you think coming on here to sway some boat guys into action to try and change the world was my attention.....you think too highly of a boater forum

My concern is what it is.....I have some real concerns about the touchscreen/barcode voting machines (Flipping votes), I gave confirmed information that it happened in the most recent election (now confirmed in two counties in Michigan....the second finding actually flipped a local election....so how would you like to think you won for a few days, and then found out that you lost because of a “glitch” that gave you votes you didnt actually earn). These were caught before doing anymore damage, but the “no harm/no foul” cannot be allowed to justify not doing a full audit.....these machines are in hundreds of counties nationwide....

I also included the AP article from February that had some pretty interesting aspects of these machines, including that Colorado has banned these systems starting in 2021 from security and hacking concerns.

I think on the subject of voter fraud in general....I think the elections after 2000 until 2016 had such a spread we all got complacement.......then the razor-thin elections in 4-6 states for 2 elections in a row now have some people concerned and wanting changes. The old “yeah but it couldn’t impact a nationwide election”.......there could be 3 or 4 states this time settled by less than 20,000 votes (maybe 2 by less than 10,000 votes). And again, almost a mirror of 2016, so this cannot be about the current winner or loser.....we have got to find a way to run an election without all the vote integrity issues (and remember i am including 2016 here, some people think a foreign country impacted that election too).

And I am not just talking about me...Tulsi Gabbard (congresswoman in HI) introduced a bill in September to ban ballot harvesting.....she is a democrat. Josh Hawley (Senator from MO) introduced a bill that would allow more poll watchers and also banning ballot harvesting. He is a republican. I Also think a serious look has to be taken into these machines, especially after I learned Colorado banned them for upcoming elections.

 

[Rockfords Fosgate]

Block-chain? talk about naked eye auditability not being possible.

Why not both? Lock the machine up with whatever encryption and block chain tech you want, and give me a little piece of paper we can count after the fact too.

A blockchain ledger is more auditable than anything we have right now. Like it or not, our banking and other sensitive activities are going to blockchain. It just a matter of when.

 

[Betik]

@Enduro900 I do think highly of this forum, that is true.

voting fraud and/or inaccuracies happen in all forms of voting. This whole touchscreen business makes it easier for a mishap. Either intentional or honest mistake as @Mainah mentioned. That does not concern all that much because in the long run ( 10 or 20 years) they are a wash.

What really concerns me is that as country we are closer to civil war than we have been in 150 years and the people who can diffuse it, do nothing more than actually add fuel to the fire. This country ( with all of its flows) is too great to risk for the sake of higher ratings or 4 years in DC.

Please recall or take some time to read on Julius Cesar. The Roman pollical elite rubbed him the wrong way and he crossed the Rubicon. In my opinion the Washington DC establishment is playing a very dangerous game. If 2016 was a surprise or a Russian trick, the 2020 election should have been a wake up call. There are 72 million people ( 16% more than 2016) that voted for Trump and at least 10 million of them are armed to the teeth. Say on January 20 Trump asks them to cross the Potomac and stand guard around the White House. What would the establishment do? Send in the Marines to take over armed American citizens?

I know it sounds crazy, but if you were to sit back and study other countries, you will start noticing the similarities.

 

[Betik]

A blockchain ledger is more auditable than anything we have right now. Like it or not, our banking and other sensitive activities are going to blockchain. It just a matter of when.

As true as that might be it is technocratic tool. The aver Joe/Jane will have no idea on what is going on and have little trust on it.

Now if you want to bring up banking as an example, what happen to in person voting with 2 forms of ID? just like opening a bank account!!!! As admirable and well intentioned this mail in voting is, at the very least it is naive and unimpactful until you have a pandemic in an election year

 

[Enduro900]

@Enduro900 I do think highly of this forum, that is true.

voting fraud and/or inaccuracies happen in all forms of voting. This whole touchscreen business makes it easier for a mishap. Either intentional or honest mistake as @Mainah mentioned. That does not concern all that much because in the long run ( 10 or 20 years) they are a wash.

What really concerns me is that as country we are closer to civil war than we have been in 150 years and the people who can diffuse it, do nothing more than actually add fuel to the fire. This country ( with all of its flows) is too great to risk for the sake of higher ratings or 4 years in DC.

Please recall or take some time to read on Julius Cesar. The Roman pollical elite rubbed him the wrong way and he crossed the Rubicon. In my opinion the Washington DC establishment is playing a very dangerous game. If 2016 was a surprise or a Russian trick, the 2020 election should have been a wake up call. There are 72 million people ( 16% more than 2016) that voted for Trump and at least 10 million of them are armed to the teeth. Say on January 20 Trump asks them to cross the Potomac and stand guard around the White House. What would the establishment do? Send in the Marines to take over armed American citizens?

I know it sounds crazy, but if you were to sit back and study other countries, you will start noticing the similarities.

No, at this point nothing is crazy.

You are right, there is mistrust on both sides now.

The media is the biggest culprit, and lights a fuse show, after show, after show,

“No evidence of widespread fraud”. Sound familiar? Yet not one of them will define what they mean by “widespread”

There is a huge percentage of people that think the popular vote means everything, and that there would need to be millions of voting fraud.

Go back and look at 2016 vote differences in the swing states.

Look at this years elections.....it wouldn’t take “widespread” fraud to swing either election......3 states will probably end up being under 20,000 votes.

The media keeps trying to spin this because if there is enough fraud (say a couple of states election people defied that states election laws And just conducted business anyway they deemed ok) those elections could become invalid....and the state house then assigns the elector. And i think the media knows this.

There are a lot of irregularities going on right now......my surprise is how many people don’t care or don’t want to know.

Btw, anyone that thinks we shouldn’t just let this play out, google Joe Lieberman. For those that don’t remember he was the VP on the ticket that lost in 2000. He said yesterday that the challenges going on right now have merit, and this process is how America works.....you have a complaint, you go to court.........and he reminded everyone they didn’t concede until the day of the electors were set to vote.....which was Dec 13th. So he was preaching patience....yes the guy on the losing side of the 2000 election.

I actually see this current situation as a lose/lose....And yes i do blame the media. And i also blame all of government for doing nothing to give us an election process we can have faith in......Both 2016 and 2020 now have proven something serious needs to be done.

 

[mark_m]

No, at this point nothing is crazy.

You are right, there is mistrust on both sides now.

The media is the biggest culprit, and lights a fuse show, after show, after show,

“No evidence of widespread fraud”. Sound familiar? Yet not one of them will define what they mean by “widespread”

There is a huge percentage of people that think the popular vote means everything, and that there would need to be millions of voting fraud.

Go back and look at 2016 vote differences in the swing states.

Look at this years elections.....it wouldn’t take “widespread” fraud to swing either election......3 states will probably end up being under 20,000 votes.

The media keeps trying to spin this because if there is enough fraud (say a couple of states election people defied that states election laws And just conducted business anyway they deemed ok) those elections could become invalid....and the state house then assigns the elector. And i think the media knows this.

There are a lot of irregularities going on right now......my surprise is how many people don’t care or don’t want to know.

Btw, anyone that thinks we shouldn’t just let this play out, google Joe Lieberman. For those that don’t remember he was the VP on the ticket that lost in 2000. He said yesterday that the challenges going on right now have merit, and this process is how America works.....you have a complaint, you go to court.........and he reminded everyone they didn’t concede until the day of the electors were set to vote.....which was Dec 13th. So he was preaching patience....yes the guy on the losing side of the 2000 election.

I actually see this current situation as a lose/lose....And yes i do blame the media. And i also blame all of government for doing nothing to give us an election process we can have faith in......Both 2016 and 2020 now have proven something serious needs to be done.

404

www.michigan.gov

I checked out Michigan SOS, perhaps considering filing a misinformation claim?

 

[Enduro900]

404

www.michigan.gov

I checked out Michigan SOS, perhaps considering filing a misinformation claim?

Did you read what they are asking for? They want people to send them emails with information of who is trying to “hack” their minds.....Is this language you want coming from your state government??:

“This year, perhaps more than any other, voters will be inundated by efforts to confuse them – about the election process, their rights, and the issues at stake. These efforts – be they foreign, domestic, partisan, or simply malicious – are designed to sow mistrust in our elections process and are antithetical to a healthy democracy.”

Fighting back against them is critical to ensuring our elections are a secure and accurate reflection of the will of the people.

• Voters must be vigilant against any and all attempts to “hack” their minds with scare tactics and other attempts to lessen their faith or confidence in our elections. They must proactively seek out reliable sources of information and encourage productive dialogue.

Tap the “report information” and it opens an email window.........

I am not sure of your comment.....are you calling what I posted here as “misinformation”?? Or are you suggesting I send in links to the AP arcticle, along with links to the now multiple vote flipping issues in MI and ask them why they didn’t ban these machines like Colorado has?? (The flipping has now be found in multiple counties By the way).

Please clarify, your comment was not clear....

Thanks for posting this though.....gives me warm and fuzzy feelings towards my state government.....

 

[Julian]

A recent NYT article on the subject:

The Times Called Officials in Every State: No Evidence of Voter Fraud (Published 2020)

The president and his allies have baselessly claimed that rampant voter fraud stole victory from him. Officials contacted by The Times said that there were no irregularities that affected the outcome.

www.nytimes.com

Disclosure: I trust most (not all) of our mass media to report on this issue truthfully - a story of fraud would be a hot one and they like hot stories - Especially the NYT. Fox would be all over evidence of Fraud - Tucker isn't claiming fraud. He is complaining about the polls suppressing voters.

 

[Enduro900]

A recent NYT article on the subject:

The Times Called Officials in Every State: No Evidence of Voter Fraud (Published 2020)

The president and his allies have baselessly claimed that rampant voter fraud stole victory from him. Officials contacted by The Times said that there were no irregularities that affected the outcome.

www.nytimes.com

Disclosure: I trust most (not all) of our mass media to report on this issue truthfully - a story of fraud would be a hot one and they like hot stories - Especially the NYT. Fox would be all over evidence of Fraud - Tucker isn't claiming fraud. He is complaining about the polls suppressing voters.

Julian, respectfully.....that NYT headline is absolutely a lie.....

Read it again, and tell me there is zero evidence of any voter fraud......Do you really believe there is no fraud? No fraud means no fraud.

The NYT’s left out the “widespread” word.

But Not one person has explained what they mean by widespread.....can you give me context on widespread?

Context matters
Truth matters

And that article confirms nothing, except neither of those words mean anything to the NYT. High School Journalist's would have gotten an F for that headline.....its not even misleading, it is a lie.

I will give you one more example the NYT just lied. The GA had 2 news conferences yesterday and today. IN BOTH they said they will, without question. find some fraud. They just don’t “Think” they will find enough. But do you think they would Say that with certainty if they had to bet their life on it? We are talking 10,000-15,000 votes out of millions in that state. Can you, me or anyone say with absolute certainty the illegal, fraud, incorrect and invalid votes Will not equal 10,000-15,000 votes out of millions? I know I wouldn’t bet my life on it either way.

You can go to YouTube yourself, and watch the two GA press conferences......there is fraud. People can state there is or there is not enough to change anything, but having the NYT write that article is very irresponsible.....as it is just not accurate.

GA also announced a hand-recount today.....would they be doing that if “There is no fraud”?

And can we just let the courts decide? Its very simple.....if none of the challenges have merit, they will just be thrown out. And no, a campaign can’t keep filing lawsuits......the electors vote on Dec 14th.....that can’t be stopped by frivolous lawsuits.....

 

[Julian]

Most states do recounts by law when the margins are less than 10k. When over 10k but still close, the Governor can call a recount anyway.

Yes, the NYT headline omits the lengthy and more accurate statement "that would affect the outcome of the election". If course there will always be small instances of fraud. Nit pick it all you want.

Yes...the courts will obviously decide - as it should be.

 

[Enduro900]

Most states do recounts by law when the margins are less than 10k. When over 10k but still close, the Governor can call a recount anyway.

Yes, the NYT headline omits the lengthy and more accurate statement "that would affect the outcome of the election". If course there will always be small instances of fraud. Nit pick it all you want.

Yes...the courts will obviously decide - as it should be.

Frankly I dont see the headline as a nitpick....I see the whole article as being dishonest. The article was written to get its readers to stop wondering or asking questions. Not one state official, under oath with risk of perjury/jail would ever say there is no voter fraud in their state right now.....not one. You know that, I know that, and the NYT’s knows that.

I cited just GA as the example......can you honestly tell me that is still a legimate article when GA has stated there is fraud? and the media is spinning even the “evidence” word here pretty hard.......there is plenty of evidence of voter fraud......what they want is “proven”, “widespread” fraud. The process won’t show whether there is or isn’t for probably a couple of weeks.

And no, I do not think this election will be overturned. And no, I did not come on here thinking a boat forum was going to change the world. I came on here to share legitimate information about the risks of electronic voting machines. I cited an AP article, which included the Colorado state ban. I also cited issues in the last election, foretold in the AP article. Maybe some people don’t think its a big deal. I do, and wanted to share it.

I also think the media is being dishonest right now, confirmed by the NYT article you posted (and I am not blaming you, the same is being said on virtually every news show and news outlet).

IF anyone goes to CNN.com, even they only have Biden up to 279, including PA (which is shaky at best....the spread is somewhere around 50k, still more ballots to count and multiple lawsuits going on). So even CNN should kind of have an asterisk showing Joe ahead, instead of their shows all day announcing who has congratulated Joe and who hasn’t......no one finds that a bit strange under the circumstances??? And no one has questioned the rush to crown a winner? He may very well be the winner. My concern is not that, my concern is whether our votes will count in the future....And my main concern is how any side trusts this process if there isn’t a true deep dive into the counts. The news should be about the election process, How they are doing the counts, and holding those involved accountable to the American people with critical detailed news reports ......and sorry but that isn't even close to what is happening right now......

 

[fireflymedic]

At least in my part of Florida you mark your ballot slide into a reader and it counts your vote. And saves that ballot so you can have a way to check votes. Not sure if your ballot can be tracked back to you though. You do show ID and sign for it. I feel confident using the system. Not sure if other states use it.

 

[Betik]

@Enduro900 the media is so biased that it makes be depressed. I have zero confidence on if what I hear is true or not.

 

[njmr2fan]

“It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes.” -J.S.