The Vaccine

[Yambers]

So I went to the cafeteria to get food. I am vaccinated and I was wearing a mask as is mandate for the hospital. I passed people eating at tables, probably unvaccinated, and they were not wearing masks because they were eating. I ordered 6 chicken wings form a vaccinated and mask wearing associate. I technically only got 5 wings because 2 were stuck together. Did I get ripped off? hahaha

Sorry. Couldn't resist the off topic humor... Well, humorous for me at least. Much like reading all the inflated tempers and off topic discussion here.

 

[tabbibus]

See @Lurch, we can agree on some stuff, but just not all/most. See what I did there?

OK, back to work for now.

 

[Beachbummer]

This is a Jet boat message board, my perspective matters none.

Well, the whole point of the board, to me, is to have fun, communicate and learn from others. Your perspective adds detail to our common understanding. I disagree that your perspective does not matter.Specially if you go to the effort of sharing an idea (which takes work), and someone can benefit from your perspective, it is a generous act on your part to share additional detail when someone inquires, it at least matters to the one asking.

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

Only when it is FULL FDA approved (not EUA) then and only then will I consider it for my daughter. Nobody knows the long term effects and I’m not going to rush to judgment due to some stupid idiots in whitehouse or some person at state level requiring it. I’ll just pull my daughter out and figure it out from there.

In regards to your statement on my statement:

“....according to news reports, left the Agency because of anger over the FDA's lack of autonomy in booster planning. Thus, I don't know where the statement, "disregarding safety and bias it should raise eye brows for anyone concerned with what they are putting in their body" come from.”

I think you answered where it came from and can draw conclusions. They’re mad, and rightfully so, that politicians and big gov’t are indeed meddling in FDA’s business, hence lack of autonomy. Regardless, the final stance on the subject it true no matter where ones perspective may be coming from. People should research what they’re putting in their body and weigh the risks. Up to them and their doctor, not some politician or state officials IMHO.

The review and approval process of licensing a vaccine is an FDA activity, and I have yet to hear of meddling in the Covid vaccine review process. Gruber and Krause, to my knowledge, have not raised any concerns about the FDA review process, either EUA or Full Approval, for the Covid Vaccines. Knowing the approval processes, I have no concerns regarding the safety and effectiveness of the pharmaceuticals and vaccines that I and my family takes.

Here is a good snippet from NIH, describing the FDA and CDC roles:

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licenses a vaccine once it determines that data submitted by the manufacturer reveal that the vaccine is safe and effective for its intended use. For each US-licensed vaccine, the FDA-approved prescribing information contains detailed information for health care providers to ensure safe and effective use. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations for the use of a licensed vaccine often are based on additional considerations, such as disease epidemiology, public acceptance, vaccine supply, and cost.

Jim

 

[AZMark]

Difficult to stay out of this one

Lurch checking in on What’s New…The Vaccine

 

[Lurch]

 

[tabbibus]

ICU update day 2
6 deaths since yesterday. One more expected today.
3 new covid admissions. Two of them on the vent.
All unvaccinated.

 

[scbruet]

Are there any other vaccines that one needs to sign a waiver of liability for?

Yes. I did for the flu shot at CVS.

 

[mwalker4]

Between the high case numbers, approval for childrens vaccines, and vaccine mandate pressure a very significant majority of the Country will have some immunity to the virus by the holidays. (not sure immunity is correct word). Is this victory? What does victory look like?

 

[Julian]

Between the high case numbers, approval for childrens vaccines, and vaccine mandate pressure a very significant majority of the Country will have some immunity to the virus by the holidays. (not sure immunity is correct word). Is this victory? What does victory look like?

This article I posted 20ish pages back covers this topic well.

When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?

McKinsey’s evolving perspectives on when will the COVID-19 pandemic end in the United States updated to examine how timing will vary around the world.

www.mckinsey.com

 

[mwalker4]

This article I posted 20ish pages back covers this topic well.

When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?

McKinsey’s evolving perspectives on when will the COVID-19 pandemic end in the United States updated to examine how timing will vary around the world.

www.mckinsey.com

Thanks, funny my daughter works for Mckinsey so I should have asked her ? To summarize at some point it likely becomes an endemic sort of like the flu.

 

[Julian]

Thanks, funny my daughter works for Mckinsey so I should have asked her ? To summarize at some point it likely becomes an endemic sort of like the flu.

Yup....the hope is that variants diminish and the volume of cases and deaths drops to a level where we just live with it. If hot spots flare up, we tackle them locally. But the big IF in all of that is the variants.

 

[Bruce]

Between the high case numbers, approval for childrens vaccines, and vaccine mandate pressure a very significant majority of the Country will have some immunity to the virus by the holidays. (not sure immunity is correct word). Is this victory? What does victory look like?

We may be seeing that occur in Arkansas but I am hesitant to be that optimistic.

Cases are decreasing in the over 18 population where 50% are vaccinated. Unfortunately there is a large increase in cases among children. There is a 92% increase in cases among the 0 to 12 age group compared to the previous peak.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

29 hours into my 2nd Moderna shot. Pretty much as described by many. Went into work this morning. Headed home at 1pm or 25 hours after shot to get in bed and sleep. I never sleep during the day but today I needed it. Arm sore and fatigue is all so far. I expect I will be back to 100%. Thanks for the info and this thread. Much appreciated

 

[Bruce]

To summarize at some point it likely becomes an endemic sort of like the flu.

Hopefully closer to a cold than the flu. ~40% of colds are caused by older coronaviruses. Influenza mutates more quickly than coronaviruses resulting in more severe illness from newer variants compared to coronaviruses.

Once herd immunity is achieved SARS-CoV-2 infections should be mostly mild with occasional severe infection in those without previous vaccination or exposure and those with weakened immune systems.

 

[Evil Sports]

Once herd immunity is achieved SARS-CoV-2 infections should be mostly mild with occasional severe infection in those without previous vaccination or exposure and those with weakened immune systems.

How or when will we achieve this

 

[2kwik4u]

How or when will we achieve this

This article has some good info on what herd immunity is, and how it's achieved.

*EDIT* Forgot the link....OOPS

Herd immunity and COVID-19: What you need to know

To protect groups of people over time, it helps to know what level of recovery or vaccination in a population makes it hard for a germ to spread.

www.mayoclinic.org

*/EDIT*

When is a complex topic that has to take into account vaccine take rates, infection rates, recovery times, and a myriad of other factors. <opinion> at the rate we're going, several years from now </opinion>

 

[Adrian @ JB Solutions]

How or when will we achieve this

Talking out of my ass here... and this math can be chewed apart.

If the government shared all the data we could get a better idea. Ideally need to know how many people of fully vacc people tested positive at least once and also unique cases.

330 Million Population
48 Million 12 or under
265 million = 94% Herd immunity
180 million people are "fully vaccinated"
85 million people not fully vacced

42.5 Million confirmed cases = Rate of 2.4 million per month / 13% infection rate

13% infection rate = 13.25 million of unvaccinated have been exposed.

That leaves 71.75 million people to get vaccinated or exposed.

The virus has probably been moving around the country ~6 month before March 2019 and there are tons of asymptomatic cases over the past 18 months, as well as people 100% immune...The numbers also do not reflect people that got sick from a partner that tested positive so they didn't test. The total number is impossible to determine.

Ignoring these people - and assuming no more vaccinations take place, and the 71.75m people were never exposed we are looking at ~2.5 more years for full herd immunity with current infection rate.

Play with the numbers some more to assume another 15 million vaccinated and 15 million previously exposed... that would put us at ~18 month until herd immunity or 4 years after it started (Spring 2023).

This obviously leaves out a lot of variables but fun to guesstimate.

 

[2kwik4u]

Play with the numbers some more to assume another 15 million vaccinated and 15 million previously exposed... that would put us at ~18 month until herd immunity or 4 years after it started (Spring 2023).

I have heard several anecdotal level comments along the lines of "Pandemic's typically last 3-5 years". This seems to fit with those anecdotes, but I have no idea if that means if either is correct.

Just a thought.

 

[mwalker4]

Talking out of my ass here... and this math can be chewed apart.

If the government shared all the data we could get a better idea. Ideally need to know how many people of fully vacc people tested positive at least once and also unique cases.

330 Million Population
48 Million 12 or under
265 million = 94% Herd immunity
180 million people are "fully vaccinated"
85 million people not fully vacced

42.5 Million confirmed cases = Rate of 2.4 million per month / 13% infection rate

13% infection rate = 13.25 million of unvaccinated have been exposed.

That leaves 71.75 million people to get vaccinated or exposed.

The virus has probably been moving around the country ~6 month before March 2019 and there are tons of asymptomatic cases over the past 18 months, as well as people 100% immune...The numbers also do not reflect people that got sick from a partner that tested positive so they didn't test. The total number is impossible to determine.

Ignoring these people - and assuming no more vaccinations take place, and the 71.75m people were never exposed we are looking at ~2.5 more years for full herd immunity with current infection rate.

Play with the numbers some more to assume another 15 million vaccinated and 15 million previously exposed... that would put us at ~18 month until herd immunity or 4 years after it started (Spring 2023).

This obviously leaves out a lot of variables but fun to guesstimate.

I'm hoping the asymptomatic (or not tested) / non vaccinated category is significant and gets us there quicker. It seems that as a policy, we need to shift from worrying about case numbers to hospitalizations as our primary measure of success.