Coronavirus

[BigN8]

Posting this pic for 2 reasons.
1. Found my Navy issue gas mask in the attic
2. Being your own barber is the best

 

[GTBRMC]

At the risk of getting flamed a bit and trying to keep politics out of it, does it seems like IF the R0 number is that high, then likely this thing was here long before January 21 and the rate of asymptomatic people is much much higher than we know? The first human to human transmission case occurred here in Chicago at the end of January, a woman traveled home from Wuhan and gave it to her husband. Wouldn't it spread just as fast here as New York City? Currently Chicago's biggest hospital system is nowhere NEAR even close to alert levels for running out of supplies or equipment (confidential inside info so I'll leave it at that). There are stories of people showing up to donate blood in small communities where 60 people are tested, none of whom have symptoms, 67% of which have the virus. Guys, I know this is serious, and I am not trying to downplay anything, but just what are we really accomplishing by sheltering in place AFTER this thing is very universal? There have been numerous stories of folks contracting this without coming into contact with a KNOWN case, but it had to come from somewhere. Could we in fact be beyond the real height of this thing?

Some other interesting statistical oddities include the number of pneumonia deaths this season are dramatically lower than in previous years. Are these cases being reported as Coronavirus deaths? We know not everyone dying has a test, especially early on. Some people were told no by health departments when they asked for tests for deceased family members. I apologize and don't want to "trigger" anyone with my statements here, but if we can't air our opinions and occasionally vent here then what's the point of a forum? Maybe it's only me, and I risk a lot of push back for saying it, but feeling a bit angry that through all of this we aren't even allowed to talk about plans for putting our economy back to work. Coronavirus is dangerous, of course. But what happens in 6 months when people don't have health insurance or money for other necessities?

There is absolutely nothing wrong with being skeptical about all of this. One of the ways to validate impact of this virus is going to be year-over-year comparisons for similar areas/demographics/etc. In the near future the statistics from that will firm up and be very instructive. For example: total deaths in NYC for the 3rd week in March 2016 v 2017 v 2018 v 2019 v 2020, etc. There is some data along that line in this article. It is selected to support the author's point, of course, but gives some perspective. About all those sirens in New York City

 

[swatski]

For example: total deaths in NYC for the 3rd week in March 2016 v 2017 v 2018 v 2019 v 2020, etc.

Sure, but... I wonder, how would one account for the impact of unprecedented measures (social distancing/shelter in place, on such a massive scale) taken to (potentially?) slow/flatten the spread?
The fact we communicate information (almost) in real time is also unprecedented, China or other's reluctance to share notwithstanding.
I'm really saying this is an incredible opportunity to make major inroads in our understanding of viral transmission, with very far reaching implications. From most obvious like developing new vaccines and effective therapies to things way more "out there" - for example - future of organ transplantation where tissue fabrication in vitro and so called xenotransplants (organs harvested from "mini-pigs" for example) will have to consider viral tropism.

This is an opportunity to learn so much, if science is followed with at least some rigor and data is not obscured by BS.

--

 

[GTBRMC]

Sure, but... I wonder, how would one account for the impact of unprecedented measures (social distancing/shelter in place, on such a massive scale) taken to (potentially?) slow/flatten the spread?
The fact we communicate information (almost) in real time is also unprecedented, China or other's reluctance to share notwithstanding.
I'm really saying this is an incredible opportunity to make major inroads in our understanding of viral transmission, with very far reaching implications. From most obvious like developing new vaccines and effective therapies to more out there - thinking of the future of organ transplantation where tissue fabrication in vitro and so called xenotransplants (organs harvested from "mini-pigs" for example) will have to consider viral tropism.

This is an opportunity to learn so much, if science is followed with at least some rigor and data is not obscured by BS.

--

That is the beauty/ugliness/joy/tragedy of all of this. There seems to be a binary thought process prevailing: We can be rigorous or we can jump at anecdotes... we can be data-driven later but cannot now because we do not have the cleanest data we will have available today... we should either lockdown or say "f*** it" and go directly to herd immunity today.

The reality is we do not have binary choices. We have many, many shades of grey between the various all vs nothing extremes. We have to do our best to exit this pandemic ASAP, and we ALSO have to save as many as we can and be as humane as we can with our treatment of those that will not make it.

I worked for a CEO, years ago, that used to say "we must set aside the tyranny of 'OR' and embrace the freedom of 'AND.'" I did not get to choose between keeping my customers and employees happy OR hitting my financial commitments. I had to lead my team to find ways to keep 'em happy AND hit my dollar commits. I did not get to choose net income OR cash flow, I had to find a way to hit net income AND cash flow. And, THE classic push in business: My business could not be successful today OR tomorrow, it had to be successful today AND tomorrow.

Setting aside all the politicization from every direction... Most first world, "Western" countries are doing their best to deliver best results today AND tomorrow. We are not on "lockdown," far from it. We did not set up roadblocks around NYC during the third week of March, to keep people from driving to Florida, the Hamptons, ths Poconos, or wherever. But, from a pure epidemic-control-playbook-to-flatten-the-curve perspective that was an obvious move that we should have done. Why was it not? Many reasons. But if draws down to it would have made "today" better but increased risk for a worse "tomorrow." We absolutely have, however, flattened the curve. As much as humanly possible? No. Enough? Nobody knows.

I saw the protocols for a major health system's treatment plans for advanced COVID-19 cases well before President Trump ever mentioned certain off-label uses of certain drugs. They were on those protocols. They were somewhere south of "compassionate use" standard but well north of anything any US health org would have dared just a couple of months ago. Why? They cannot wait for tomorrow's information to make treatment decisions for today's patients.

Is this real-time medical experimentation on people? I suppose it might be. But, as long as they have informed consent and zero good options, why not? Importantly, this was happening in a haphazard way a few weeks ago. And trying a bunch of things simultaneously without controls makes learning impossible and is absolutely counterproductive in structured problem solving. Over the last couple of weeks, as I am sure you know, large field trials have been organized where various health industry heavyweights have divided up semi-experimental protocols with some controls (although not 18 month, randomized, double-blind, nearly-all-variables controlled textbook studies) so that they have a more structured approach to learning for tomorrow AND they can give as many patients as possible the best believed chance for a good outcome.

It is not perfect, but with the curve to flatten, the number of lives on the line right now, and the numbers that very predictably will be on the line in the near future, they are doing everything they can. The medical establishment is in the middle of their Apollo 13 moment. So far they have not run out of oxygen, but the risk is still high. And yes, they do have a splashdown coming and need to always keep that in mind, but avoiding suffocation is the current major focus.

/rant

The true body count will never be exact. But statistics will give us a very good idea of what actually happened. And parsing out "was it worth trying to flatten the curve" will be spun and respun (and, no doubt, litigated), but we will never really know the woulda while we will definitely know the coulda and many will arrive at their own personal shoulda.

 

[ripler]

PA just closed schools for the rest of the school year, next my bet is our idiot Governor extents the lockdown for the rest of the state beyond this month.

 

[Dean P]

PA just closed schools for the rest of the year, next my bet is our idiot Governor extents the lockdown for the rest of the state beyond this month.

Definitely tough and harsh times we live in. If it means savings lives (maybe yours), I believe this is necessary. As the curve flattens and the case numbers drop (along with the number of deaths), the restrictions should lighten accordingly. This should be about saving lives, right?

 

[Lspeedss]

Stay calm. Wash your hands..

 

[ripler]

Definitely tough and harsh times we live in. If it means savings lives (maybe yours), I believe this is necessary. As the curve flattens and the case numbers drop (along with the number of deaths), the restrictions should lighten accordingly. This should be about saving lives, right?

I agree it's about saving lives, but our Governor is a complete idiot. He has everything on lockdown but yet is allowing trout fishing season to open because the state gets money from fishing licenses. He has travel restricted to only essential travel, so unless you have a stream in your back yard you can't get to a stream to fish.

So do you see the nonsense going on in Pennsyvania?

 

[GTBRMC]

Been waiting for this shoe to drop, "JP Morgan Will Only Accept Small Business Loans Under Federal Scheme, Suspends All Others"

JPMorgan Will Only Accept Small Business Loans Under Federal Scheme, Suspends All Others

Other than loans under the Paycheck Protection Program, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) will not accept any other small business loan applications until further notice.What Happened JPMorgan's consumer head Gordon Smith informed President Donald Trump on Tuesday the bank had received more than...

finance.yahoo.com

They are saying this is "temporary." Time will tell. If it turns out to be other-than-temporary, this could be a hard indicator of a system-wide liquidity crisis. Not intending to fear-monger nor incite... just fact that this is inevitable if "lockdown" continues.

The major point is pressure to "re-open" is building. Above info, combined with downward trending death projections (from IMHE, IHME | COVID-19 Projections) add to "re-open" pressure.

 

[swatski]

Definitely tough and harsh times we live in. If it means savings lives (maybe yours), I believe this is necessary. As the curve flattens and the case numbers drop (along with the number of deaths), the restrictions should lighten accordingly. This should be about saving lives, right?

Yep. New Zealand is a good example of those regimen working quite well. Apparently.

—

 

[mdchachi]

I agree it's about saving lives, but our Governor is a complete idiot. He has everything on lockdown but yet is allowing trout fishing season to open because the state gets money from fishing licenses. He has travel restricted to only essential travel, so unless you have a stream in your back yard you can't get to a stream to fish.

So do you see the nonsense going on in Pennsyvania?

The text of the order would seem to allow travel to go fishing assuming fishing is included in "outdoor activity."

Allowable Individual Activities

• Engaging in outdoor activity, such as walking, hiking or running if they maintain social distancing.

Allowable Essential Travel

• Any travel related to the provision of or access to the above-mentioned individual activities

 

[Dean P]

I agree it's about saving lives, but our Governor is a complete idiot. He has everything on lockdown but yet is allowing trout fishing season to open because the state gets money from fishing licenses. He has travel restricted to only essential travel, so unless you have a stream in your back yard you can't get to a stream to fish.

So do you see the nonsense going on in Pennsyvania?

Not everything is fair in love and war. Constantly reminded this is a war. Our idiot Governor kept the beaches open for spring breakers. I'm sure $$ was a motivator. They are closed now. Guess where all those kids went? Home!!!

 

[msavold]

The ongoing debate at all levels (including here) on all this reminded me of what I think is an appropriate quote and caution for these times:
"You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want as long as you're prepared to ignore enough data." (Matt Parker)

 

[Julian]

PA just closed schools for the rest of the year, next my bet is our idiot Governor extents the lockdown for the rest of the state beyond this month.

OK, to be clear the PA governor has closed schools for the remainder of the ACADEMIC YEAR, not the whole year. Which for most schools means through May or early June (at least where I live). That isn't a big stretch from where we are now, and probably makes sense to do. Smart move in my mind.

Now IF he'd closed them for all of 2020, that would indeed be strange...but that isn't what he's done.

 

[Peelz]

We are going into year two of a Nissan Rogue......It's a fine transportation appliance at 18k miles in. There is quite literally NOTHING remarkable about it. It's as vanilla of a vehicle as you can get. But the wife likes it because it's quiet, smooth, the right size and has a giant sunroof. I like it because it's cheap to own and operate, and I don't have to drive it often.

love our 2012 pathfinder.

it was the end of real mid sized SUV's with frames and can tow. The 13+ looks and feels like a Hyundai.

edit: quoted prequoted post. lol

I LOVE unremarkable cars. I bought a 12 VW jetta to get me to and from work and soccer with no drama.

 

[ripler]

The text of the order would seem to allow travel to go fishing assuming fishing is included in "outdoor activity."

Allowable Individual Activities

• Engaging in outdoor activity, such as walking, hiking or running if they maintain social distancing.

Allowable Essential Travel

• Any travel related to the provision of or access to the above-mentioned individual activities

They must have recently changed it to include individual activities, because they cited someone out east for taking a drive.

I have a friend on the PA state police and he said the rules are changing so much that they can't keep up.

@Julian Yes only academic year even though a lot of local new outlets are using the term rest of year.

 

[Murf'n'surf]

OK, to be clear the PA governor has closed schools for the remainder of the ACADEMIC YEAR, not the whole year. Which for most schools means through May or early June (at least where I live). That isn't a big stretch from where we are now, and probably makes sense to do. Smart move in my mind.

Now IF he'd closed them for all of 2020, that would indeed be strange...but that isn't what he's done.

Smart move but creates all sorts of issues if people start to work before the end of the school year, in terms of child care.

 

[Scottintexas]

. This should be about saving lives, right?

it should be but how much is a life worth? how many lives are worth my freedom, how many lives are worth the devastation this will cause to the living, if saving lives were the priority we would change so many other things in our society that take and change people.

Been waiting for this shoe to drop, "JP Morgan Will Only Accept Small Business Loans Under Federal Scheme, Suspends All Others"

JPMorgan Will Only Accept Small Business Loans Under Federal Scheme, Suspends All Others

Other than loans under the Paycheck Protection Program, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) will not accept any other small business loan applications until further notice.What Happened JPMorgan's consumer head Gordon Smith informed President Donald Trump on Tuesday the bank had received more than...

finance.yahoo.com

They are saying this is "temporary." Time will tell. If it turns out to be other-than-temporary, this could be a hard indicator of a system-wide liquidity crisis. Not intending to fear-monger nor incite... just fact that this is inevitable if "lockdown" continues.

The major point is pressure to "re-open" is building. Above info, combined with downward trending death projections (from IMHE, IHME | COVID-19 Projections) add to "re-open" pressure.

I've got two business accounts. One is a BBVA/Compass bank. They opened up the PPP program on Friday afternoon. Saturday morning they had already shut it down and said they were not accepting anymore PPP applications until the current backlog was processed.


.

 

[BigN8]

Two of my Navy buddies have been ordered by their companies to remove Zoom from their work computer. Both hold pretty high up management positions. One is a Systems Software Program Manager for Carnegie Mellon who deals with mostly defense contracts, and the other is a logistics manager for Siemens.

 

[ripler]

Smart move but creates all sorts of issues if people start to work before the end of the school year, in terms of child care.

Especially when the Governor considers child care centers as a non-essential business. In order for a child care center to be open they had to apply for a waiver to be open and the last day to file for the waiver was March 19. The daycare that my wife manages applied and got approval to be open because they had families that were still working including doctors and first responders. And for all of the hassle they went through to get the waiver approved, they had people call the local news, the BBB, a local state representative and the police to report they were still open. They were putting up with so much BS they decided to close at the end of March.