Coronavirus

[Dean P]

My brother owns a bar in Brandon Florida. I've been talking to him daily about what the plan is for St. Patrick's day on Tuesday. Normally his biggest revenue boost for his bar. This year...he has NO CLUE what will happen. I always go down to help him. Will be interesting to see what happens. Right now his bar is UP in sales.....people seem to be getting diverted from other things to do....so they are coming to drink. I'll likely be working the door (as always), but no cover charge this year. We are wondering if I stand there with a temperature reader and we turn away anyone with a temperature???? Otherwise....come on it!!! Have a CORONA!!!! LOL

What's the name of the bar? When are you coming down? Brandon is about 30 minutes away? Might just take a drive and get a Corona?

 

[Julian]

What's the name of the bar? When are you coming down? Brandon is about 30 minutes away? Might just take a drive and get a Corona?

O'Toole's Irish Pub 1215 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida 33511

O'Toole's Irish Pub

O'Toole's Irish Pub, Brandon, FL. 5,112 likes · 54 talking about this · 42,296 were here. A piece of Ireland on SR 60. Beautiful cherry wood bar inside and pet friendly patio under the oak tree....

www.facebook.com

Come on by!

 

[Dean P]

O'Toole's Irish Pub 1215 W Brandon Blvd, Brandon, Florida 33511

O'Toole's Irish Pub

O'Toole's Irish Pub, Brandon, FL. 5,112 likes · 54 talking about this · 42,296 were here. A piece of Ireland on SR 60. Beautiful cherry wood bar inside and pet friendly patio under the oak tree....

www.facebook.com

Come on by!

You just coming down for the one night?

 

[Julian]

You just coming down for the one night?

No...I fly down on Saturday and leave on Wed. Need to spend some time with my aging Dad.....every time I see him I wonder if it will be the last time.... He's 86, had 2 heart attacks and 2 strokes (maybe 3)....

 

[Wayloncle]

Shelves of my hometown grocery store shortly after they announced first confirmed case in Burlington. No TP!
Might have to revisit my infant years and buy diapers, the shelf is full.

View attachment 113396

What’s funny is the Italian grocery store shelves are full of TP, food and such is low but TP isles are stocked as normal....we have bidets next to every toilet, TP isn’t that important!
My mom mentioned TP was out around her, baby wipes were stocked though?

 

[swatski]

Lots of foolish opinions out there...
You know what they say: science doesn't care what you believe.

Here is something that many independent tests/approaches show, unequivocally, regardless of your personal and political views:
"Even if you don't reduce total cases, slowing down the rate an epidemic can be critical".
(re: COVID-19 in the context of the workings of a health care system)

I will refrain from sharing my own opinions on how the top figures of our government approach this crisis (would break too many forum rules, lol).

However, let me point out some of the things missing from the discussion here so far:

1. The lag in testing can, at least in part, be blamed on the Zika virus epidemic and response to it. LDTs (lab developed tests) quickly put in place there were a mishmash of good, not so good, and terrible, resulting in the US FDA clamping down on the entire LDT viral infections testing process in order to standardize testing an bring the QC process up to par.
2. The above resulted in the "Emergency Use Authorization" requirement that makes labs (like the one I help run) submit for approval before anything can be done in house... Which is good and bad depending on how much attention (and money) a gov efforts into staying in front of things. (full stop on my comments here... lol)
3. The current CDC approved test is pretty bad (seriously, I'm speaking as an expert). It is an RNA virus so the testing is on viral RNA that needs to be extracted (isolated), reverse transcribed to cDNA and then tested by quantitative (TaqMan) RT-PCR. The problem is:
   1. the current test uses 4 different sets of primers (2 that are narrowly specific for the N region of the COVID19 virus, 1 for the conserved SARS and Corona gene, and 1 for "loading" - total human RNA - to ascertain loading and reactions running to completion)
   2. those 4 reactions are run separately because they (CDC-approved, ITD-manufactured primers) are labeled with the same fluorochrome (??? why) and... still lack internal controls (!!!!!) so the assay is not ratio-metric (lol)
   3. currently conclusive results of all 4 sets of primers are necessary to reach a report-able result, which often can not be achieved due to a variety of reasons (too much to explain here)
   4. if the N1 or N2 regions of the virus mutate (and mind you - this is an RNA virus, it mutates a lot, just like the flu virus) - the test will stop working (and yes, it will potentially generate a lot of false negatives...)
   5. there are no clear guidelines as to "intake considerations"; think of this as what you put into a collection tube/container/swab - to extract the viral RNA from... snot, NP/OP swabs, sputum, what not - if this is not standardized (and it is currently not) there is no way of telling if the same individual would test positive/negative in separate tests (on separate samples) - this is one o the key, critical, essential points of any test validation - AKA "sample requirements". Missing here. Lol.
4. Add to this the critical shortage of "positive controls" - there is no way most all diagnostic labs can handle the live virus; attenuated virus is not available at this time; the RNA positive control samples are in critically short supply, and even the largest reference labs are only allowed two aliquots a year... (not ideal, to say the least). The actual testing involves handling of samples containing the whole viral particles, not isolated RNA, so those CDC approved isolated RNA positive controls are just not adequate for a robust validation...

Anyhow. I'm sure I can go on for another few minutes listing more issues...

Just my 0.02 as the OP asked for opinions.
The OP has been a source of invaluable information here on various topics, most notably for me on the subject of skiing the Wolf Creek!
So, I felt obligated to respond (as I felt I may know something, for a change, lol).

--

 

[Julian]

Lots of foolish opinions out there...
You know what they say: science doesn't care what you believe.

Here is something that many independent tests/approaches show, unequivocally, regardless of your personal and political views:
"Even if you don't reduce total cases, slowing down the rate an epidemic can be critical".
(re: COVID-19 in the context of the workings of a health care system)

I will refrain from sharing my own opinions on how the top figures of our government approach this crisis (would break too many forum rules, lol).

However, let me point out some of the things missing from the discussion here so far:

1. The lag in testing can, at least in part, be blamed on the Zika virus epidemic and response to it. LDTs (lab developed tests) quickly put in place there were a mishmash of good, not so good, and terrible, resulting in the US FDA clamping down on the entire LDT viral infections testing process in order to standardize testing an bring the QC process up to par.
2. The above resulted in the "Emergency Use Authorization" requirement that makes labs (like the one I help run) submit for approval before anything can be done in house... Which is good and bad depending on how much attention (and money) a gov efforts into staying in front of things. (full stop on my comments here... lol)
3. The current CDC approved test is pretty bad (seriously, I'm speaking as an expert). It is an RNA virus so the testing is on viral RNA that needs to be extracted (isolated), reverse transcribed to cDNA and then tested by quantitative (TaqMan) RT-PCR. The problem is:
   1. the current test uses 4 different sets of primers (2 that are narrowly specific for the N region of the COVID19 virus, 1 for the conserved SARS and Corona gene, and 1 for "loading" - total human RNA - to ascertain loading and reactions running to completion)
   2. those 4 reactions are run separately because they are labeled with the same fluorochrome (??? why) and... still lack internal controls (!!!!!) so the assay is not ratio-metric (lol)
   3. currently conclusive results of all 4 sets of primers are necessary to reach a report-able result, which often can not be achieved due to a variety of reasons (too much to explain here)
   4. if the N1 or N2 regions of the virus mutate (and mind you - this is an RNA virus, it mutates a lot, just like the flu virus) - the test will stop working (and yes, it will potentially generate a lot of false negatives...)
   5. there are no clear guidelines as to "intake considerations"; think of this as what you put into a collection tube/container/swab - to extract the viral RNA from... snot, NP/OP swabs, sputum, what not - if this is not standardized (and it is currently not) there is no way of telling if the same individual would test positive/negative in separate tests (on separate samples) - this is one o the key, critical, essential points of any test validation - AKA "sample requirements". Missing here. Lol.
4. Add to this the critical shortage of "positive controls" - there is no way most all diagnostic labs can handle the live virus; attenuated virus is not available at this time; the RNA positive control samples are in critically short supply, and even the largest reference labs are only allowed two aliquots a year... (not ideal, to say the least). The actual testing involves handling of samples containing the whole viral particles, not isolated RNA, so those CDC approved isolated RNA positive controls are just not adequate for a robust validation...

Anyhow. I'm sure I can go on for another few minutes listing more issues...

Just my 0.02 as the OP asked for opinions.
The OP has been a source of invaluable information here on various topics, most notably for me on the subject of skiing the Wolf Creek!
So, I felt obligated to respond (as I felt I may know something for a change, lol).

--

Is this a correct translation for what you said?----

1) Our tests suck
2) Our sample collection rules don't exist
3) We have no test samples to use to confirm our sucky tests work

What I can say to your very informative details is that the RNA primers are eating the Pacman cells like they were florocarbons in heat. The lack of aliquots is causing a severe mutation of the N1 and N2 flux capacitors, and as a result the Retro Encabulator will fail resulting in a massive meltdown of the farfegnugen (well before Covid19 kills all our politicians-unfortunately)

 

[Julian]

And of course...there is the usual HOAX information floating around: That Widely Circulated List of COVID-19 Tips Is a Hoax

 

[Zane Aust]

Sounds like the F1 race this weekend has been canceled over here because of Caronaviris.

 

[GTBRMC]

Is this a correct translation for what you said?----

1) Our tests suck
2) Our sample collection rules don't exist
3) We have no test samples to use to confirm our sucky tests work

What I can say to your very informative details is that the RNA primers are eating the Pacman cells like they were florocarbons in heat. The lack of aliquots is causing a severe mutation of the N1 and N2 flux capacitors, and as a result the Retro Encabulator will fail resulting in a massive meltdown of the farfegnugen (well before Covid19 kills all our politicians-unfortunately)

Better check the Fetzer valve. And the ball bearings.

 

[F.M.]

MotoGP postponed a lot of races too. Texas just got pushed back to November. Which works for me, I wasn't able to work out going originally.

 

[ZippyBoater]

What is interesting is...how would the US population react to strong measures from the government. China was able to have an effective quarantine because they are an authoritarian communist country (they'll happily shoot you if you don't comply).
Italy had a shit show on their hands when they attempted to quarantine Lombardy and 14 other central and northern provinces - everyone just said....screw this I'm going south! Totally defeated the purpose of the lock-down. Now they've locked down the whole country - only pharmacies and groceries stores are supposed to be open. Will be interesting to see how that works.

Imagine how this would play out here?

My brother owns a bar in Brandon Florida. I've been talking to him daily about what the plan is for St. Patrick's day on Tuesday. Normally his biggest revenue boost for his bar. This year...he has NO CLUE what will happen. I always go down to help him. Will be interesting to see what happens. Right now his bar is UP in sales.....people seem to be getting diverted from other things to do....so they are coming to drink. I'll likely be working the door (as always), but no cover charge this year. We are wondering if I stand there with a temperature reader and we turn away anyone with a temperature???? Otherwise....come on it!!! Have a CORONA!!!! LOL

China's quarantine was less than effective.

Cracks in the System: COVID-19 in Chinese Prisons

The spread of the disease in prisons reveals flaws in China’s epidemic countermeasures.

thediplomat.com

 

[MattFX4]

2nd largest school system in Georgia closing Monday.

 

[Julian]

China's quarantine was less than effective.

Cracks in the System: COVID-19 in Chinese Prisons

The spread of the disease in prisons reveals flaws in China’s epidemic countermeasures.

thediplomat.com

Guess they'll just have to accelerate the executions!

 

[BigN8]

I've been listening to that JRE podcast off and on today. That's good stuff, and well worth the listen in my pea-brained opinion. I can describe to you how a pressurized water nuclear reactor works, but I can't tell you shit about this Roni virus......Other than I want to jump off a bridge when I see my 401k balance!

 

[scot71]

I wasn't actually concerned until I heard the NBA news. How long before the car makers shut down the factories or Disney or airline employees,, anybody going out to buy a car, refrigerator or get something fixed at their house ?? what about the grocery store, how long until they tell the workers better not come in because of corona ?? The paranoia leads the whole thing to a screeching halt,



.

Coronavirus: Subaru plant stops production briefly after worker’s contact with infected person

Lafayette's Subaru plant had to stop production temporarily Wednesday and an employee was told to self-quarantine after contact with someone with coronavirus

www.jconline.com

 

[AboveTheBest]

Just got a call that my kids elementary school (and all in the County) is closed until the end of March.
There was apparently a positive test from a parent in our school district (I’ve read above where the test is likely garbage).

It sounds like I just got a bunch of time-off...

 

[swatski]

Is this a correct translation for what you said?----

1) Our tests suck
2) Our sample collection rules don't exist
3) We have no test samples to use to confirm our sucky tests work

Yes, pretty close.
1. and 2. Don't get me wrong, the test exists and it (kind of) works but it is, basically, shamefully inadequate. While it can (for the most part) give answers as far as qualitative (positive/negative) calls, the design flaws cause way too many tests reported as invalid or inconclusive, and it requires extreme vigilance on the part of the performing lab leadership to track potential changes in the viral genome as it mutates in real time which is kind of crazy; BTW - it is entirely unclear what would/will happen IF the parts of the virus that are used to detect it mutate (making the current test unusable).

It really doesn't have to be that way, we are at a point in time where this kind of testing should NOT be a challenge. This is a very, very basic test that should be working 100%, all the time, should cost very little in reagents, and should be robust enough to be fully automated and equipped with an algorithm to interpret results immediately indicating any potential changes in the viral genome - as those are curated by CDC and WHO databases.

3. The lack of positive controls - freely available to labs that want to do the testing - is truly an astonishing problem to have.
Keep in mind, this virus is called "-19" for a reason, it is not a new virus.
The shortage of adequate positive controls is so bad - testing labs are literally forced to scavenge all confirmed positive specimen and use those in their ongoing validations... kind of throwing the process on its head (those are validations not QI projects) - just to make things work.

--

 

[Dixie Highway]

I started considering this a couple weeks ago when my company said they were getting requests for our plans in case we have to keep them running in the event of a 14 day lockdown. We have food enough for a couple weeks, and other “provisions” if need be. Unfortunately, it seems the less than educated in our region are worried about being able to wipe their ass and according to my girlfriend there was a run on generators at Costco. WTF I’m ready to throw up my hands. Let’s get it over with!

 

[ZippyBoater]

Here is a little Covid-19 humor to start you day. Semper Fi!

First case of coronavirus traced to Marine putting hands in pockets

QUANTICO, Va. — The first confirmed case of the COVID-19 coronavirus in a U.S. military member has been traced to a Marine putting his hands in his pockets last week, according to sources. Pentagon sources say the unidentified Marine put his hands in his pockets for upwards of 30 seconds...

www.duffelblog.com