Coronavirus

[Dixie Highway]

The US isn't exactly full of healthy, fit people with healthcare.

True enough, but my guess is we have a lot more access to healthcare than the regions of the world that are poorer and much more densely populated. The areas of SE Asia, for example, where this disease would have certainly spread like wildfire regardless of any government action. Look how it spread through Italy, WITH extremely stringent lockdown procedures.

 

[Julian]

True enough, but my guess is we have a lot more access to healthcare than the regions of the world that are poorer and much more densely populated. The areas of SE Asia, for example, where this disease would have certainly spread like wildfire regardless of any government action. Look how it spread through Italy, WITH extremely stringent lockdown procedures.

It is spreading like wild fire in India. And as you point out....the problem there is almost no testing and the poor are REALLY poor (not like US poor). They are hoping that the summer heat will help! That is their plan.

Brazil death rate now exceeds the US.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

So what’s the vibe around CDC’s latest estimates.

CDC estimates COVID 19 mortality rate is 0.4%, significantly lower than previously reported

The data is based on five scenarios, including the best estimate for a mortality rate, which is 0.4% overall.

www.wcnc.com

 

[Dixie Highway]

Influenza death rate is about .1% on average. .4% obviously is much higher. I think once this shakes out we will see that .4% come down more, nobody really grasped how quickly this spread, and how many people here had it before the Chinese even reported it. As was mentioned before, 15-20% of all tests came back positive (almost universally across the globe). At .4% mortality rate, current death totals suggest 25 million infections in the U.S., it’s probably closer to 50-60 million in reality? Seasonal flu affects like 100 million per year, this new virus is claimed to be much more virulent spreading faster and easier, so expect more infection regardless of quarantine efforts. Quarantining healthy people indoors with infected people seems like a quick way to spread a virus, so idk. All I can say is it sure would be nice to get actual data than extrapolate it unreliably.

 

[Rumbo]

The biggest problem I have is the reporting of the numbers, both cases and deaths. Mathematically they do not jive, but most people don’t bother to hash it out for themselves. First of all, to me the total cases numbers don’t mean jack. Those are just confirmed numbers based on testing, which may as well be made up. Until we test 7 billion people you don’t get a picture. Looking at percentages of positive tests gives you a better idea. Early in the game, we started around 20% positive rates. This tell me we still aren’t really close to an accurate total confirmed number of cases. Currently, the positivity rate is around 8-10% where I live, last national average I saw was 13%. Now, there is another issue because some of the tests use different methods to come up with a “positive”. Some are antibody tests, some are active RNA tests, they don’t specify. The active tests are the only ones that say for sure who is currently ill from it, the other could be someone who had it recently, someone who had it months ago, we don’t know how long the antibodies remain.

Problem 2, the numbers themselves. Last count this morning shows 5.5 million global cases, and 350,000 deaths. Of those, the U.S. reports about 30% of the deaths, along with 30% of the cases. 7 billion people on earth, and the US is 5% of the population. I realize this thing is a fluid situation with the infection spreading through a population, but to me the numbers do not jive. We are probably testing more than anywhere else, but that doesn’t explain it fully.

Problem 3, give me data not opinion from the media. I don't need a “journalist” telling me what to think. I’ll figure it out.

I’ll agree the death toll is large from this virus. How large is it really? I don’t think anyone truly knows. Politics has even gotten in the way of accurate death numbers, since there ARE discrepancies in reporting. I’ve seen first hand, politics has even permeated the medical system. Once again, the likelihood that a country has 5% of the world’s population but 30% of its Covid deaths is pretty unlikely. How many are too many deaths from it? That’s for each of us to decide for ourselves. There is a death toll involved with shutting down the economy too. Suicide rate increases nearly 1 to 1 with unemployment. So if unemployment jumps 15%, suicide rate makes the same jump in deaths per 100,000. Will we see cancer deaths spike after this? People went a couple months already without some of those screenings. Certain cancers that’s all it takes is a couple months. Other health screening not done or postponed, that could be a factor. Many smaller health systems are laying off doctors and nurses, due to empty hospitals and clinics. Will that have an effect on health care availability? I guess what I’m saying is it’s not very cut and dried, and I’ll reserve my judgement on potential value in our actions until seeing the whole picture, which isn’t very clear right now.

This is by far the most level headed post I’ve seen on this or pretty much any other site. Thank you @Dixie Highway for writing this so clearly! The only thing that you left out is that not only are we 5% of the population with 30% of cases/deaths but we have the most advanced medical care system and research/researchers on the planet. The numbers do not jive! I have been screaming these things from the beginning of this and 95% + of people I talk to are in 100% agreement! I just can’t say it as level headed as you did.

 

[Julian]

Now to be fair, the Doctors in the article probably didn't submit the billings, someone in their office did or a billing provider for them. Whether or not they know about it or directly authorized it I guess the court will figure determine.

And what they bill is unrelated to what is listed as the cause of death on a death certificate. And in the EHR (electronic health record), you can't change the data for a closed case without the Doctor knowing, or it being easily traceable. Most of the insurance fraud cases I've read...the MD is in on it entirely - small ambulatory practices (often single doc) performing fraud on their own. Yes there are some groups doing it...but so much harder to pull off without getting caught when so many people know.

 

[Julian]

Influenza death rate is about .1% on average. .4% obviously is much higher.

Death rates aren't really applicable until the whole event is complete, but one thing is clear, Remdisiver looks to have some positive news in terms of treatment outcomes. Hopefully that is bringing down the death rate! Everything I've read says looking at death rates now is like discussing the final score of a football game at half time. Efficacy of Remdisiver is a perfect example of why....lets hope it works better and better and brings the rate down big time! Where are you getting the .4% CFR (case fatality rate? or CMR Crude mortality rate?)for Covid from?

we have the most advanced medical care system and research/researchers on the planet.

Actually, our healthcare system isn't the best on the planet. One simple metric used to determine this is average life expectancy. One would think that the country with the best healthcare in the world would also have people living the longest? The US ranks 46th. Based on the UN measures of health the US ranks 26th. This ranking has the US at 30th. We definitely do well in the research category. Unfortunately we have the highest medical bankruptcy rate in the world. It is also pretty depressing that it isn't unusual for patients with cancer to cease treatment because they can't afford it....then go home to die. But we spend more on healthcare than any other country (per capita)....because it is a for profit system. Pretty depressing that we are ok with people dying because they can't afford treatment....

 

[Dixie Highway]

Where are you getting the .4% CFR (case fatality rate? or CMR Crude mortality rate?)for Covid from?

The post above with the article stating CDC estimate of .4% was my reference. I also mentioned I don't think that will be the final #, this number realistically will only go down as time passes. We know for certain how many die, the unknown variable is total cases. Total cases so far can not decline unless they redefine what they are counting as "positive" cases. The numbers tell the story. @Julian please understand, I agree it is important to take this seriously and protect those at risk, I am not downplaying the severity and it is a health emergency. Even if CFR or CMR were .2%, that's TWICE as deadly as most seasonal influenza strains. I just happen to think we are throwing out the baby with the bathwater so to speak. Maybe we as a society have become so anti-logic that's the only way to do it? I just happen to believe otherwise.

This is by far the most level headed post I’ve seen on this or pretty much any other site. Thank you @Dixie Highway for writing this so clearly! The only thing that you left out is that not only are we 5% of the population with 30% of cases/deaths but we have the most advanced medical care system and research/researchers on the planet. The numbers do not jive! I have been screaming these things from the beginning of this and 95% + of people I talk to are in 100% agreement! I just can’t say it as level headed as you did.

Thank you for reading it, I don't normally speak out on a lot of subjects but when there are obvious flaws in logic for some reason my personality has a hard time just letting it go. I try not to make it a political argument, (though sometimes my leanings probably show) but rather a mathematical one. This is why I love math, it is without prejudice. Now to be fair, garbage in garbage out so the data is exceedingly important to get right.

 

[Julian]

The post above with the article stating CDC estimate of .4% was my reference. I also mentioned I don't think that will be the final #, this number realistically will only go down as time passes. We know for certain how many die, the unknown variable is total cases. Total cases so far can not decline unless they redefine what they are counting as "positive" cases. The numbers tell the story. @Julian please understand, I agree it is important to take this seriously and protect those at risk, I am not downplaying the severity and it is a health emergency. Even if CFR or CMR were .2%, that's TWICE as deadly as most seasonal influenza strains. I just happen to think we are throwing out the baby with the bathwater so to speak. Maybe we as a society have become so anti-logic that's the only way to do it? I just happen to believe otherwise.


Thank you for reading it, I don't normally speak out on a lot of subjects but when there are obvious flaws in logic for some reason my personality has a hard time just letting it go. I try not to make it a political argument, (though sometimes my leanings probably show) but rather a mathematical one. This is why I love math, it is without prejudice. Now to be fair, garbage in garbage out so the data is exceedingly important to get right.

Sorry, I was looking at your post....didn't realize you were quoting the person above! Reading too fast! Those numbers from the CDC are really encouraging! WAY lower CFR than anything I've seen before - which is awesome.

 

[Julian]

They also line up more closely with the total deaths - at 100k today. If we are are 3-4 times the flu rate, that would be 180k-240k total dead. Still a very sobering number, and it could have been much worse if more places were overwhelmed like NY was.

 

[tabbibus]

Dear friends. Two folks decided a week ago that social distances is for sheeple. Hung out together. They are now in my ICU. Family members are sick at home...

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Dear friends. Two folks decided a week ago that social distances is for sheeple. Hung out together. They are now in my ICU. Family members are sick at home...

Can you share their age or if they have other health problems? Also, interested in your opinion around CDCs current fatality estimates? Do you agree a person infected has over a 99% chance of recovery?

 

[tabbibus]

I honestly can't give details. Patient privacy. Big picture, not elderly not poor health prior to this.

I don't have enough info to answer your second question. All I see are the sick people who get to my ICU. They definitely do not have 99% recovery rate.

 

[Rumbo]

One would think that the country with the best healthcare in the world would also have people living the longest? The US ranks 46th. Based on the UN measures of health the US ranks 26th. This ranking has the US at 30th.

There are far too many factors involved in life expectancy than quality of healthcare. We undoubtably have the most advanced, best researched healthcare on the planet. Yes it’s expensive, you get what you pay for. But quality of healthcare does not have a direct correlation with life expectancy in the first world. The fact that we are a free people has far more to do with any disparity (If one truly exists) than healthcare anyway. I will take freedom over life expectancy any day of my life. This covid crap is a huge reminder of that. In addition to that, the fact that the UN says something tells me it’s nothing but outright lies. There is no bigger group of anti-American people out there. It’s just like WHO, who was out speaking China’s lies that human to human transmission doesn’t exist as China locked down domestic travel from Wuhan while letting 5 million people travel internationally from there. These multinational organizations are blatantly anti-American and I give zero credibility to anything that comes from them.

Thank you for reading it, I don't normally speak out on a lot of subjects but when there are obvious flaws in logic for some reason my personality has a hard time just letting it go. I try not to make it a political argument, (though sometimes my leanings probably show) but rather a mathematical one.

You need to speak out, I need to speak out, as does every other person that sees this thing for what it is! Math and science is all we should be following. The problem is that you can’t get this info unless you seek it out yourself, and even at that you have to dig deep and pull out your calculator. I’ve been following reported numbers (which have been over inflated) since the start and the math has never added up, even with known inflated numbers. I followed flu and pneumonia trends on the cdc website since the start of this until they were pulled. I guess that the simple addition of adding average number of flu deaths plus average number of pneumonia deaths and seeing it equal reported covid deaths was too obvious for the cdc to leave those posted. Then two weeks ago we see Birx come out and say she no confidence in any data from the cdc WHICH SHE HEADS, and now Fauci backtracking. They’ve been outed as overplaying this thing and now they’re trying to backtrack. I guess the most disappointing thing to me in all of this was seeing how quickly Americans gave up their liberty.

 

[Dean P]

Sad...

 

[GTBRMC]

There are far too many factors involved in life expectancy than quality of healthcare. We undoubtably have the most advanced, best researched healthcare on the planet. Yes it’s expensive, you get what you pay for. But quality of healthcare does not have a direct correlation with life expectancy in the first world. The fact that we are a free people has far more to do with any disparity (If one truly exists) than healthcare anyway. I will take freedom over life expectancy any day of my life. This covid crap is a huge reminder of that. In addition to that, the fact that the UN says something tells me it’s nothing but outright lies. There is no bigger group of anti-American people out there. It’s just like WHO, who was out speaking China’s lies that human to human transmission doesn’t exist as China locked down domestic travel from Wuhan while letting 5 million people travel internationally from there. These multinational organizations are blatantly anti-American and I give zero credibility to anything that comes from them.



You need to speak out, I need to speak out, as does every other person that sees this thing for what it is! Math and science is all we should be following. The problem is that you can’t get this info unless you seek it out yourself, and even at that you have to dig deep and pull out your calculator. I’ve been following reported numbers (which have been over inflated) since the start and the math has never added up, even with known inflated numbers. I followed flu and pneumonia trends on the cdc website since the start of this until they were pulled. I guess that the simple addition of adding average number of flu deaths plus average number of pneumonia deaths and seeing it equal reported covid deaths was too obvious for the cdc to leave those posted. Then two weeks ago we see Birx come out and say she no confidence in any data from the cdc WHICH SHE HEADS, and now Fauci backtracking. They’ve been outed as overplaying this thing and now they’re trying to backtrack. I guess the most disappointing thing to me in all of this was seeing how quickly Americans gave up their liberty.

All of us should think about taking this a step at a time. This is and will be a long haul: Medically, socially, economically, otherwise. At a minimum, it will be many months before this is behind us. It could be years.

I don't see epidemiologists overplaying their hands. I don't see Americans giving up their values, including their love of liberty. I see people, all over the world - Americans included - doing the best they can with the information they have when they have it and adjusting as best they can when the information changes.

We all are trying to do the right things: Protect our loved ones. Protect our current way of life. Protect our our shared heritage. Protect our future. Protect our children's and grandchildren's future.

We all can only do the best we can. But, no matter what, we are all generally better off doing it together than fighting amongst ourselves.

PS: Our politicians (most of them, anyway, of every stripe) are grandstanding and politicking, their one core competence, apparently - hugely disappointing.

 

[Julian]

@Rumbo we'll have to agree to disagree. From my perspective, the current deaths (103,418) in conjunction with the excess deaths data line up to show us undercounting the deaths. At 103K confirmed cases vs 7k confirmed flu cases in the 2018-2019 year, we have a much more deadly disease. But it is VERY encouraging to see some positive news around Remdesiver treatments working, so I am hopeful that proves out and gives us one weapon against it. Social distancing clearly works - it isn't rocket science - but we do need to get the country back to work....a slow easing process seems to be working in that regard.

Regarding your comments about the US Healthcare system being the best in the world - we'll have to disagree there too. When poor people go home to die of cancer because they don't want to bankrupt their families - that isn't right, and that is a SUCKY system. Plenty of FREE countries have figured out how not to have that happen. We've chosen to ignore this in favor of protecting the insurance companies - its all about profit. This approach will forever leave us behind and result in great healthcare for some - and none for others. "Freedom" has nothing to do with it.

 

[Dixie Highway]

I don't the issue of healthcare is as black and white as that. Some will argue a socialized "free healthcare for all" is better, because it doesn't bankrupt poor people who need medical care. Others argue "paid healthcare" is better, because the system allows for greater research, development, and implementation of new treatments. Socialized medicine typically does not produce much in the way of advanced treatment. Paid medicine does not offer cost benefits for lower income users. One thing to remember, most of the nations that have socialized systems do so at great tax burden to their population. They can also afford to do so because they are somewhat protected by other countries (mainly us) militarily, thus allowing them greater budget room for those kinds of programs. I'd argue that most of Europe was able to develop these medical programs during the Cold War simply because the United States was part of NATO, which freed up defense dollars to be spent elsewhere. On the down side, the U.S.'s large defense budget does eat up money which could otherwise be spent on medical programs. It's really quite a paradox when you think about it. Defense spending prohibits medical spending, but defense spending is why we don't all speak Russian or German or Mandarin right now. Most of us are old enough to recall first hand seeing how good the medical systems were in the USSR and the Eastern Bloc. They were standing in lines for basic life necessities, bread and water. I think the bottom line is there is a happy medium somewhere between the two, but it is going to require a compromise somewhere. Personally I do not seeing a great number of Americans volunteering to pay 40% taxes anytime soon.

 

[Robconn]

Dear friends. Two folks decided a week ago that social distances is for sheeple. Hung out together. They are now in my ICU. Family members are sick at home...

I am waiting to get tested when available where I work due to the proximity and time I spend with covid patients. Asymptomatic for now. I have been practicing social distance even while at home despite how safe I feel with the PPE provided. Have a relative that is an occupational therapist that was recruited to the ICU in order to help prone patients. She had covid and was out 3 weeks. She believes she got it a week prior to working in the ICU. Due to lack of testing with her patients. Just lucky she did not require hospitalization.

 

[Robconn]

@Ronnie, I do not know what to say other than hers was such terrible and tragic loss.

I worry about the toll this is taking on medical workers, on their families and later on our ability to access medical care.

Pic taken minutes prior to my first covid intubation. Patient was out of ICU 17 days later and still recovering. I worry about long term effects as well if one survives an initial exposure. I feel safe with PPE provided.