Gas prices

[Bruce]

Simple answer is natural gas vehicles - extremely plentiful and very clean burning. The premis of CO2 reduction by going to electric cars is the one I just can’t accept. Trace everything back and it’s some kind of natural resource mining. Some of it pretty nasty.

I agree that battery production is nasty and limiting although getting better.

Fuel cells may become a better alternative. Hydrogen is exciting as a fuel, especially since you can create it using solar or wind and water and once it is oxidized through fire or a fuel cell the end product is clean water.

I first experienced an LPG car in Holland in 1998. It was less expensive to run than on gasoline and ran perfectly. Last year I considered purchasing a CNG powered wheel chair van. It would have been less expensive to purchase and run but the nearest fuel station was 70 miles away.

As for comparative CO2 over vehicle production and lifetime this academic comparison shows the EV at around half the CO2 of an ICE vehicle. Quite a change from the old Prius to H2 comparison a few decades ago.

https://sustain.ubc.ca/sites/default/files/2018-63%20Lifecycle%20Analysis%20of%20Electric%20Vehicles_Kukreja.pdf

 

[Rumbo]

@Rumbo, perhaps you could read more and write fewer false statements?

“Energy return on investment (EROI) is a means of measuring the quality of various fuels by calculating the ratio between the energy delivered by a particular fuel to society and the energy invested in the capture and delivery of this energy.”

As for CO2 used to construct versus saved by using wind generation this is an interesting publication.

“The analysis shows that per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated by the turbine, the energy intensity and CO2 emissions are comparable with larger wind turbines and significantly lower than fossil-fuelled generation.”

“the energy payback period was found to be between 17 and 25 months, whereas the CO2 payback was between 13 and 20 months. Across the full production range, the energy and carbon payback periods were 13–50 months and 10–39 months, respectively.”

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1243/09576509jpe306

Wow you couldn’t be more ignorant in your reply to me. Maybe you should heed some of your own advice to read more and write fewer false statements.

You linked to microgeneration which was not at all what we were talking about. In fairness, I think most people skim through and see a link and assume you must know what you’re talking about because there is a link. Props to you on playing that game.


As for EROI, Energy return on investment is a means of measuring the quality of various fuels by calculating the ratio between the energy delivered by a particular fuel to society and the energy invested in the capture and delivery of this energy. This includes labor energy COSTS, health and safety energy COSTS, and transportation COSTS. This is a financial metric to help suppliers of energy deem whether or not a particular energy source is viable, not a carbon output metric. So what I said in my post is completely accurate.

Wind generation has an EROI of between 5 and 20, which is somewhat consent with the screenshot you posted though it is favoring the high side of that range. This factors in several criteria so not all perform at the top of that range. Even the footnote in your screenshot states “EROI values are assumed to vary by geography and climate and are not attributed to a specific region/country”. So an EROI of 5-20 still sounds okay until you understand that an EROI of 7 is a break even point. Wind is barely viable in some regions and not in others.

I’m far from an expert here but I do inform myself about what I’m talking about before I go posting about something.

 

[Rumbo]

Now back to the topic at hand, gas prices…
Here’s a list of what changed in January 2021 that gives us this wonderful price at the pump…
1. Reentering the bogus Paris Climate Accords
2. Cancelling the Keystone XL Pipeline
3. Halted leasing programs in Anwar
4. Implementation of a 60 day halt on all new oil and gas leases and drilling permits on all federal lands and waters NATIONWIDE
5. Direction of federal agencies to eliminate all supports on productions of fossil fuels.
6. Imposed new regulations on oil, gas, and methane emissions.
Obviously, not a one of these has a direct immediate impact on production levels. However, oil is a SPECULATIVE market. We are not paying for the price of the oil that is coming out of the pump today, we’re paying the price of what investors speculate the price will be months from now. When you have someone with so much power (I’d argue unconstitutionally but that’s another topic) come in and on day one target an entire industry with this much hostility the only reasonable speculation is that oil supplies will not be able to meet demand.

 

[Julian]

Now back to the topic at hand, gas prices…
Here’s a list of what changed in January 2021 that gives us this wonderful price at the pump…
1. Reentering the bogus Paris Climate Accords
2. Cancelling the Keystone XL Pipeline
3. Halted leasing programs in Anwar
4. Implementation of a 60 day halt on all new oil and gas leases and drilling permits on all federal lands and waters NATIONWIDE
5. Direction of federal agencies to eliminate all supports on productions of fossil fuels.
6. Imposed new regulations on oil, gas, and methane emissions.
Obviously, not a one of these has a direct immediate impact on production levels. However, oil is a SPECULATIVE market. We are not paying for the price of the oil that is coming out of the pump today, we’re paying the price of what investors speculate the price will be months from now. When you have someone with so much power (I’d argue unconstitutionally but that’s another topic) come in and on day one target an entire industry with this much hostility the only reasonable speculation is that oil supplies will not be able to meet demand.

I'm genuinly curious how each of the above has an impact on the pump price of gas today:

1. The Paris climate agreement is a future looking commitment to reduce green house gas emissions. The US has yet to codify any rules that will get us to our "pledge" to come up with a "Clean Power Plan" and automotive efficiency standards. The latter would actually result in a reduction in gas prices since it would reduce demand.
2. The Keystone XL pipeline EXPANSION wouldn't have come online until 2025 - so no impact on today's gas price
3. Leases in Anwar have no impact on today's gas prices
4. New oil leases - no impact on today's gas prices
5. I'd love to see a reference to this and just what you are referring to. The fossil fuel industry currently gets in the neighborhood of 45 billion in tax advantages already.
6. Can you cite these new regulations - I'd be curious to understand them, their timing and costs. This would definitely drive up prices if this is new.

Oil is indeed a commodity, but its price is driven mostly by supply and demand, and we aren't ramping up supply and neither is OPEC (intentionally to make up their loses from Covid low consumption). This is OPEC's choice. It has nothing to do with US policy. They like high prices and are recovering their "lost" profit so lots of Arab Skeiks can buy new cars, Yachts, islands etc. We don't control them. Anyone who thinks we (the US) can influence the price of oil much is deluded.

The single largest oil find in the US was made in 2018. It hasn't been tapped despite them having the drilling rights to do so. Why?

A 10% reduction in gasoline usage would have an impact of prices.

It might....if OPEC chose to play along.

It also caused a lot of small independent refineries to shut down permanently.

Do you have a reference to this? I have been unable to find ANY refineries that shut down (other than the ones in Texas that went offline during the freezing weather). Is there such a thing as a "Small refinery"?

The US has not returned to the level of gasoline production we were at pre-pandemic. The only answers I can find as to why is because 1) they are enjoying the record profits at the current prices, 2) they are switching over to summer blend and blaming that for not ramping overall production.

I paid $5.90 at my marina over the weekend.

 

[FSH 210 Sport]

I'm genuinly curious how each of the above has an impact on the pump price of gas today:

1. The Paris climate agreement is a future looking commitment to reduce green house gas emissions. The US has yet to codify any rules that will get us to our "pledge" to come up with a "Clean Power Plan" and automotive efficiency standards. The latter would actually result in a reduction in gas prices since it would reduce demand.
2. The Keystone XL pipeline EXPANSION wouldn't have come online until 2025 - so no impact on today's gas price
3. Leases in Anwar have no impact on today's gas prices
4. New oil leases - no impact on today's gas prices
5. I'd love to see a reference to this and just what you are referring to. The fossil fuel industry currently gets in the neighborhood of 45 billion in tax advantages already.
6. Can you cite these new regulations - I'd be curious to understand them, their timing and costs. This would definitely drive up prices if this is new.

Oil is indeed a commodity, but its price is driven mostly by supply and demand, and we aren't ramping up supply and neither is OPEC (intentionally to make up their loses from Covid low consumption). This is OPEC's choice. It has nothing to do with US policy. They like high prices and are recovering their "lost" profit so lots of Arab Skeiks can buy new cars, Yachts, islands etc. We don't control them. Anyone who thinks we (the US) can influence the price of oil much is deluded.

The single largest oil find in the US was made in 2018. It hasn't been tapped despite them having the drilling rights to do so. Why?


It might....if OPEC chose to play along.


Do you have a reference to this? I have been unable to find ANY refineries that shut down (other than the ones in Texas that went offline during the freezing weather). Is there such a thing as a "Small refinery"?

The US has not returned to the level of gasoline production we were at pre-pandemic. The only answers I can find as to why is because 1) they are enjoying the record profits at the current prices, 2) they are switching over to summer blend and blaming that for not ramping overall production.

I paid $5.90 at my marina over the weekend.

One of many was the Western Refining Refinery outside of Grants New Mexico…this refinery produced mainly motor fuels.

And an emphatic yes there is small refineries and very very big ones, I’ve worked in a lot of them, from Fletcher (small) to Union Oils LAR or Los Angeles Refinery and the sulphuric acid / liquified CO2 plant.

 

[Julian]

One of many was the Western Refining Refinery outside of Grants New Mexico…this refinery produced mainly motor fuels.

And an emphatic yes there is small refineries and very very big ones, I’ve worked in a lot of them, from Fletcher (small) to Union Oils LAR or Los Angeles Refinery and the sulphuric acid / liquified CO2 plant.

It is interesting as I delve deeper. Many of the ones I can find were tiny (your reference was 27.000 barrels - TINY) or have not actually closed, but stopped refining gasoline and switched to clean diesel.

U.S. refining capacity shrinks 4.5% as pandemic shuts plants

U.S. refining capacity last year fell 4.5% to 18.13 million barrels per day (bpd) from a record 18.98 million bpd a year earlier, the U.S. government reported on Friday, reflecting weak demand for motor fuels during the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.reuters.com

.

But a 4.5% reduction isn't small overall. But I still doesn't matter as OPEC drives the price of oil not our ability to refine it. We aren't short of gas - we are paying too much for the commodity to produce it.

 

[Zizzou 192]

So...

What oil and gas companies should I speculatively buy stock in to recoup my possible extra $100 in boat fuel costs this year?

 

[Julian]

So...

What oil and gas companies should I speculatively buy stock in to recoup my possible extra $100 in boat fuel costs this year?

You might have missed that train! Here is the Oil and gas index, 56% one year return! Will it still climb....if I knew that, I wouldn't be in the SW business! LOL

 

[Neutron]

So...

What oil and gas companies should I speculatively buy stock in to recoup my possible extra $100 in boat fuel costs this year?

Thats a secret, shhhhsh..lol

 

[Rumbo]

I'm genuinly curious how each of the above has an impact on the pump price of gas today:

I addressed this in my post. Gas prices paid today are based on speculation of of oil prices months from now. We’re still not burning this $130/barrel oil yet we’re paying at the pump as though we are.
It’s not even necessarily the specific policies that have been imposed that is driving up oil speculation. The speculation is because these policies are sending a message showing how hostile this administration is towards oil.

 

[Bruce]

The speculation is because these policies are sending a message showing how hostile this administration is towards oil.

When did the largest oil permit (lease) sale occur? What is the current administration’s stated policy on domestic oil production?

 

[Jim_in_Delaware]

Now back to the topic at hand, gas prices…
Here’s a list of what changed in January 2021 that gives us this wonderful price at the pump…
1. Reentering the bogus Paris Climate Accords
2. Cancelling the Keystone XL Pipeline
3. Halted leasing programs in Anwar
4. Implementation of a 60 day halt on all new oil and gas leases and drilling permits on all federal lands and waters NATIONWIDE
5. Direction of federal agencies to eliminate all supports on productions of fossil fuels.
6. Imposed new regulations on oil, gas, and methane emissions.
Obviously, not a one of these has a direct immediate impact on production levels. However, oil is a SPECULATIVE market. We are not paying for the price of the oil that is coming out of the pump today, we’re paying the price of what investors speculate the price will be months from now. When you have someone with so much power (I’d argue unconstitutionally but that’s another topic) come in and on day one target an entire industry with this much hostility the only reasonable speculation is that oil supplies will not be able to meet demand.

There is a disconnect, however, in that the oil companies are making record profits. You are correct that it is a speculative market, but prices are not set by the cost of production.

From an article in Offshore Energy, Oil & gas firms’ profits set to smash records reaching $834 billion in 2022, Rystad says:

Energy intelligence group Rystad Energy expects public exploration and production (E&P) companies to break prior records as profits are set to soar in 2022, driven by high oil and gas prices and increasing demand, reaching a 70 per cent increase compared to the figures recorded in 2021.

As reported by Rystad last week, public E&P firms are on track to shatter previous record profits this year as high oil and gas prices and surging demand drive financial success. According to the energy intelligence firm, companies’ cash from operations after accounting for outflows and asset maintenance – total free cash flow (FCF) – will balloon to $834 billion from the $493 billion profits in 2021.

Espen Erlingsen, Rystad Energy’s head of upstream research, remarked: “The current financial health of public upstream operators is at an all-time high. Still, the good times are set to get even better this year, thanks to a perfect storm of factors pushing profits and cash flow to another record high in 2022.”

Rystad Energy research shows that the total FCF from public E&Ps fell to around $126 billion in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing oil price collapse, halving the prior year’s total. Last year’s FCF levels surged to nearly $500 billion – the highest profits ever for the upstream industry – as the global economy rebounded and fuel demand increased.

Based on Rystad’s research, the main contributing factor to these glowing financials is sustained high oil and gas prices. The energy intelligence group predicts that total FCF for public upstream companies will reach $834 billion this year thanks to average Brent oil prices estimated at $111 per barrel in 2022, a Henry Hub gas price at $4.2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) and a European gas price of $25 per Mcf.

Jim

 

[Farny]

So...

What oil and gas companies should I speculatively buy stock in to recoup my possible extra $100 in boat fuel costs this year?

Missed the boat - should have bought in 2020 when oil price actually went negative - I picked up a ton of Halliburton less than $5 per share

 

[Farny]

There is a disconnect, however, in that the oil companies are making record profits. You are correct that it is a speculative market, but prices are not set by the cost of production.

From an article in Offshore Energy, Oil & gas firms’ profits set to smash records reaching $834 billion in 2022, Rystad says:

Energy intelligence group Rystad Energy expects public exploration and production (E&P) companies to break prior records as profits are set to soar in 2022, driven by high oil and gas prices and increasing demand, reaching a 70 per cent increase compared to the figures recorded in 2021.

As reported by Rystad last week, public E&P firms are on track to shatter previous record profits this year as high oil and gas prices and surging demand drive financial success. According to the energy intelligence firm, companies’ cash from operations after accounting for outflows and asset maintenance – total free cash flow (FCF) – will balloon to $834 billion from the $493 billion profits in 2021.

Espen Erlingsen, Rystad Energy’s head of upstream research, remarked: “The current financial health of public upstream operators is at an all-time high. Still, the good times are set to get even better this year, thanks to a perfect storm of factors pushing profits and cash flow to another record high in 2022.”

Rystad Energy research shows that the total FCF from public E&Ps fell to around $126 billion in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing oil price collapse, halving the prior year’s total. Last year’s FCF levels surged to nearly $500 billion – the highest profits ever for the upstream industry – as the global economy rebounded and fuel demand increased.

Based on Rystad’s research, the main contributing factor to these glowing financials is sustained high oil and gas prices. The energy intelligence group predicts that total FCF for public upstream companies will reach $834 billion this year thanks to average Brent oil prices estimated at $111 per barrel in 2022, a Henry Hub gas price at $4.2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) and a European gas price of $25 per Mcf.

Jim

This is true - producers are making record profits - mostly due to contracts with their service companies made when oil crashed 2020. All the companies got super lean and now suddenly oil is over $100 and they can’t ramp up fast enough all the while service companies are trying to recoup price for their services as their costs are getting slammed by inflation of raw materials- this is all very unhealthy for energy. Healthy would be $75 oil.

 

[GTBRMC]

Gas at $4.799 in northern Milwaukee ‘burbs today

 

[Ronnie]

This I’ve what I have paid here in the past two days. Costco being the least overly expensive. notice that gas on the water was less expensive than gas on land. wTF?

 

[zipper]

This I’ve what I have paid here in the past two days. Costco being the least overly expensive. notice that gas on the water was less expensive than gas on land. wTF?
View attachment 179086View attachment 179087View attachment 179088

$4.79 / GAL here. I will not be going to the gas dock for any fuel this Summer, except for the 3 gallon tank for the 15hp OB on the dinghy. Topped off the diesel tank last Fall. Between a full tank and wind on the water, we should be good to go.

 

[BigN8]

I know our Marina buys their gas in bulk early in the season. They hold that price through the season so when gas goes up theirs always stays the same. That Marina must do the same.

 

[Ronnie]

It makes sense but now I question why land based gas stations don’t do the same. Actually i know the answer, pure plain and simple greed. They close a refinery because of fire, announce that production will be reduced and the prices jump overnight regardless of how much the price per gallon was they day before for the same gas in the station’s tank.

 

[Bruce]

$3.89 is the highest that I have paid in Arkansas this year.

I expect Memorial Day travel to push prices up so I may pay over $4 this weekend.